Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

2nd Half of August WX Discussion


Quincy

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I wouldn't bet against that but given 850 mb temps it may be hard to eclipse that for most. Stick to that call though I'd be interested to see how that verifies. I'm sticking with mid 70s for now though.

850's this past week were cooler than next weekends progs and there was only 1 day with low- mid 70'. That air mass next weekend isn't nearly as cool
Link to comment
Share on other sites

850's this past week were cooler than next weekends progs and there was only 1 day with low- mid 70'. That air mass next weekend isn't nearly as cool

Yeah I see what you're saying, where 850mb temps are between 6-12C right now. Like I said in my previous post if we fall in the 12-16C range then you'd likely be right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was looking at that. I'm excited because Countryfest is next weekend and it's looking like nothing but perfect grilling weather. I'll take temps in the mid 70s and dews in the 50s any day.

Yea with a high overhead probably a good day for that and probably a good day to test the old 850 skew T conversion method, 10c

drying it adiabect yields about 75-78

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Btw Ginxy 850mb temps look between 12-16C on the Euro, and GFS is saying 6-12, with SNE obviously being closer to 12C. Still quite a difference in my opinion. Those 16C 850mb temps can easily put some places over 80 like Kev was saying.

I was looking at ENS day 7 which are on the Euro 12-13

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For now I'd just go with "seasonally above average", code for non-record breaking heat that fits within the expectation for late August.  

 

The MET and MEX guidance are 88 and 89, for Tues, Wed, and Thur, for locations such as BED, FIT...etc.   Therein is a low probability for a heat-wave where just touching 90 at one or two locations for the 3 days this week.   MOS products have been doing fairly well, though.  

 

The general theme over the next 10 days is to transition into midland above normal temperatures, then recession back to climo (perhaps) next weekend, then monitor for the possibility of a more important warm departure period next week.    There's contention (of course) in where to place the more important ridge amplitude out in time.  Recent operational Euro runs have been a tad E of it's own mean, although the 00z mean did come a little farther E compared to the 12z run yesterday.  This 12z oper. GFS is a bit too far W to get us really hot.  The problem is, if there is that NW flow aloft we are prone to everything from fronts, to MCS', to BDs; these can fluctuate highs some 25 degrees.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...