CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Kevin interprets posts like he does models. It might be a cool shot next weekend with N-NE winds, but it probably warms up again the week after...but I don't see 90/70 by any means. The GEFS are much cooler, but not sure I buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tstorm723 Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Thankfully for you..it's over as it warms 5 degrees per night Check and see how many times ORH has been in the 40's this summer This month blows so far...haven't hit 80 here yet...in August?? Not to mention the lack of notable convection and how many lows in the 40's here (46.7 the lowest). At least the crab grass is healthy with over 3" of rain. It will be 90 in October...just watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 At least we get what we want. I'm glad I live where I live...I love the cooler summer nights and you're not that much colder than me on winter days. Maybe a degree or two but I make up for it at night when I'm much colder. I looked back at our coldest winter day (1/23) and you had a high of 12° which actually was the same as me. The geography around where I live puts the sun behind the trees in summer and the lower angle in winter behind the hill earlier than most places. I guess I have the best of both worlds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 This month blows so far...haven't hit 80 here yet...in August?? Not to mention the lack of notable convection and how many lows in the 40's here (46.7 the lowest). At least the crab grass is healthy with over 3" of rain. It will be 90 in October...just watch. ORH has gone 19 consecutive days without hitting 80F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 ORH has gone 19 consecutive days without hitting 80F now. That's 19 days during the heart of summer and usually the hottest time of year in late-July and early August. 19 days closer to it snowing now without having to suffer through summer's heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Glad I live where I do. Warmer summer nights and colder winter days How about warmer winter nights and colder summer days? You always tell us about the warmer summer nights, but never mention the colder summer days that are like 5-8F lower than BDL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Kevin interprets posts like he does models. It might be a cool shot next weekend with N-NE winds, but it probably warms up again the week after...but I don't see 90/70 by any means. The GEFS are much cooler, but not sure I buy it. No 3 t-shirt days coming up to mop up the sweaty back? Another taste of warmer weather will be nice to just get it out of the way before fall sets in. We are bound for a 2-3 week period of AOA weather, so I figure enjoy it for what it's worth, and watch the sun angle and days get shorter/lower...we are on the downhill now. Like Dendrite mentioned...a late-April sun angle this week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 If you don't like warm to hot wx for days straight don't look at 12z Euro..Extends it well into day 10 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 If you don't like warm to hot wx for days straight don't look at 12z Euro..Extends it well into day 10 now Day 8 is "that" close to being historic for heat. There is a big conveyor of 20+C 850mb air that's origined from the plateau regions out west, arcing all the way to NYS, with 594dm height circumvallate situated over the OV. The record high for Boston for August 25th was set in 2007, at 96F. Given the synopsis above, if it were to verify I suspect this number would be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Day 8 is "that" close to being historic for heat. There is a big conveyor of 20+C 850mb air that origined from the plateau regions out west, arcing all the way to NYS, with 594dm height circumvallate situated over the OV. The record high for Boston for August 25th was set in 2007, at 96F. Given the synopsis above, if it were to verify I suspect this number would be in trouble. This is gonna be an "over the top" heat wave that builds in from the NW which means lower dews but hotter temps regardless of silly sun angle ideas. That's a long heat wave on the Euro. We'll see if Ens agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Just in time for school to start...AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 This is gonna be an "over the top" heat wave that builds in from the NW which means lower dews but hotter temps regardless of silly sun angle ideas. That's a long heat wave on the Euro. We'll see if Ens agree Those are the best heat waves...I enjoy the dry NW heat. We can usually compress and dry out a bit more on the east slope, leading to like 90/55 type days. Nights still cool off decently in a NW flow heat pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Appears the oper. Euro is a bit of a warm outlier compared to the ensembles. Not largely so, ... but it is somewhat farther west with the ridge lat/lon node, allowing for a more N component to the circulation around the ridge. That could be sensibly important because no doubt where the oper. would suggests some impressive positive departures for post Aug 20th, the ensemble mean might have a front or MCS to dent things back considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Appears the oper. Euro is a bit of a warm outlier compared to the ensembles. Not largely so, ... but it is somewhat farther west with the ridge lat/lon node, allowing for a more N component to the circulation around the ridge. That could be sensibly important because no doubt where the oper. would suggests some impressive positive departures for post Aug 20th, the ensemble mean might have a front or MCS to dent things back considerably. Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Appears the oper. Euro is a bit of a warm outlier compared to the ensembles. Not largely so, ... but it is somewhat farther west with the ridge lat/lon node, allowing for a more N component to the circulation around the ridge. That could be sensibly important because no doubt where the oper. would suggests some impressive positive departures for post Aug 20th, the ensemble mean might have a front or MCS to dent things back considerably.Ens still have the 3-4 day heat wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Ens still have the 3-4 day heat wave? Not really... The 582dm contour is never N of NYC, with balanced flow being WNW/NW across the area. It keeps the heat dome further W/SW, if that happens. Again, the operational is bit different in edging the heat much closer, with higher heights overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Not really... The 582dm contour is never N of NYC, with balanced flow being WNW/NW across the area. It keeps the heat dome further W/SW, if that happens. Again, the operational is bit different in edging the heat much closer, with higher heights overall. Nice...maybe this will be one that looks slightly cooler as we approach hour 0. The operational ECMWF is prone (like all models) to be too agressive with both heat and cold in the long range, but that's why the ensembles are good at this lead time. It seems models like to take more extreme stances the further out in time you go. Hopefully we see a muting occur, or something that has more bark than bite when verification comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Finally got the SW winds to die down in Buzzards Bay. Beautiful day on the water. Cleveland Ledge Light behind me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Finally got the SW winds to die down in Buzzards Bay. Beautiful day on the water. Cleveland Ledge Light behind me. buzzardsbay.jpg Watch out--there's a lighthouse chasing you! Hope you had a good time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Watch out--there's a lighthouse chasing you! Hope you had a good time. As good as you can have with all your in-laws. lol Did you guys enjoy Falmouth? I'm looking forward to getting home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 ORH has gone 19 consecutive days without hitting 80F now. We haven't hit 80 in August here either, and only once since July 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 18, 2013 Author Share Posted August 18, 2013 Just looked at the Euro ensembles VS. the operational from 12z. Red flag that day 9 OP is warmer than every ensemble member for the same time. Also, day 6-10 ensembles have near average temps, while the OP is pretty much above throughout. We've seen this a few times this summer: the OP Euro goes hot happy in the medium range and starts spitting out 850s approaching +20C, only to back off as time gets closer. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 As good as you can have with all your in-laws. lol Did you guys enjoy Falmouth? I'm looking forward to getting home. Yeah--nice time. Especially for the Mrs. and our daughter--that's what counts. I was glad to get home yesterday. We haven't hit 80 in August here either, and only once since July 23rd. Assuming today's forecast plays out, the sub=80 streak will continue today for a day 28, and looks to get broken tomorrow. Helluva cool string in the heart of summer. 55.9/55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Euro Op and Ens agree Wed Thurs will be scorchers near 90 in favored spots then back to upper 70s lower 80s dews look moderate so not stifling actually kind of perfection. Great end of summer beach days if you can get the time off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Euro Op and Ens agree Thursday Friday will be scorchers near 90 in favored spots then back to upper 70s lower 80s dews look moderate so not stifling actually kind of perfection. Great end of summer beach days if you can get the time off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Euro Op and Ens agree Wed Thurs will be scorchers near 90 in favored spots then back to upper 70s lower 80s dews look moderate so not stifling actually kind of perfection. Great end of summer beach days if you can get the time off. I'll be moving my daughter into Virginia Tech Tues-Thursday, so I"ll miss the heat at home. Forecast for Blacksburg is for low 80's compared to the mid-80's forecast for the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 sweet, enjoy great time of year for Vaca. Lots of folks are wrapping up summer with college kids like MPMS daughter back to school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 I'll be moving my daughter into Virginia Tech Tues-Thursday, so I"ll miss the heat at home. Forecast for Blacksburg is for low 80's compared to the mid-80's forecast for the Pit. Towson cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Long range looks pretty damn hot too after the mild down next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 I'll be moving my daughter into Virginia Tech Tues-Thursday, so I"ll miss the heat at home. Forecast for Blacksburg is for low 80's compared to the mid-80's forecast for the Pit. Nice, I'm sure it will be bittersweet for you and your wife, but good luck to her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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