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2nd Half of August WX Discussion


Quincy

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A decent analog for the upcoming winter is 1960-61..really.

 

If we see that PAcific pattern again, I'll be shocked. That was about as good as PAC pattern as you can possibly get. Maybe '02-'03 was better, but same ballpark. '62-'63 is in there too.

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There could be some sneaky convection tomorrow morning

If only we had better shear tomorrow.

We do have to watch that S/w though, if the models are too fast with deamifying it, tomorrow could be a bit more interesting with widespread storms. Stronger arc convergence could help too so have to watch sea breeze

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Huh??It's gonna be sunny with storms in the afternoons. Where did you get that forecast?

 

It's a classic summer weeeknd

 

 

As clouds break for sun, temps return to 80s. Humidity climbs tonight. Weekend & 10-day Forecast: http://mattnoyes.net 

 

 

  • SaturdayScattered showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
  • Saturday NightA chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
  • SundayA chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
  • Sunday NightA chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
  • Labor DayShowers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
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A decent analog for the upcoming winter is 1960-61..really. If we see that PAcific pattern again, I'll be shocked. That was about as good as PAC pattern as you can possibly get. Maybe '02-'03 was better, but same ballpark. '62-'63 is in there too.

Prepare to be shocked. Low tropical year though Donna made the entire east coast. Strong Pirate team though the Yankees aren't close. Enough similarities...lol

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If only we had better shear tomorrow.

We do have to watch that S/w though, if the models are too fast with deamifying it, tomorrow could be a bit more interesting with widespread storms. Stronger arc convergence could help too so have to watch sea breeze

The 12z GFS actually has it re-amplifying a bit by 18-21z over SW CT. Not a terrible setup with the surface low over NY and the timing of the shortwave.

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Yep that was the last time that all four stations did not reach 90 at least once in August. It has only happened eight other times besides 2008: 1986, 1967, 1950, 1940, 1934, 1927, 1915, and 1910.

huge West highs east troughs. Winter at Boston that followed 1910/11 40", 15/16 79", 27/28 20", 34/35, 45", 40/41 47", 50/51 30", 67/68 44", 86/87 43", 8/9 65" so about 41" average
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GFS has the cool shot too next week.

 

The Euro ensembles started agreeing with it a few days ago, but the magnitude was obviously not like the OP Euro...I'm sure we're getting a taste of autumn, but the question is whether we see a lot of 30s for lows or just some 40s in the typical rad spots.

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The Euro ensembles started agreeing with it a few days ago, but the magnitude was obviously not like the OP Euro...I'm sure we're getting a taste of autumn, but the question is whether we see a lot of 30s for lows or just some 40s in the typical rad spots.

 

Probably verifying warmer than this... lol at the 540 lobe along the international border.

 

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The Euro ensembles started agreeing with it a few days ago, but the magnitude was obviously not like the OP Euro...I'm sure we're getting a taste of autumn, but the question is whether we see a lot of 30s for lows or just some 40s in the typical rad spots.

I wonder if you or me will have our first 40's for lows of the summer. Been  a long time

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The Euro ensembles started agreeing with it a few days ago, but the magnitude was obviously not like the OP Euro...I'm sure we're getting a taste of autumn, but the question is whether we see a lot of 30s for lows or just some 40s in the typical rad spots.

 

Yeah both op and ensembles have the ridge out west building and a transient -NAO, but the ensembles are a bit more of a glancing shot. I wonder if part if the differences have to do with the s/w trough pushing into the Pacific NW at that time. May act as a kicker and boot the ridge east a bit. Either way like you said, should be a nice cool shot.

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Yeah both op and ensembles have the ridge out west building and a transient -NAO, but the ensembles are a bit more of a glancing shot. I wonder if part if the differences have to do with the s/w trough pushing into the Pacific NW at that time. May act as a kicker and boot the ridge east a bit. Either way like you said, should be a nice cool shot.

It looks like that's exactly what is happening. The models with less of a cool shot have much more robust energy pushing through the Pac NW...and likewise have stronger and higher heights pushing NE across Canada ahead of that feature.

To me that looks like something very transient with heights that'll rise real quickly after the trough clears our area.

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I wonder if you or me will have our first 40's for lows of the summer. Been  a long time

 

ORH had 4 lows in the 40s in June...unless you are talking about the new cold season which technically starts July 1st (at least that is how the snowfall season is reset)

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ORH had 4 lows in the 40s in June...unless you are talking about the new cold season which technically starts July 1st (at least that is how the snowfall season is reset)

Yeah i thought there may have been some backdoor fiascos in June..but since june 20th or so  give or take the hills have not been in the 40's.

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It looks like that's exactly what is happening. The models with less of a cool shot have much more robust energy pushing through the Pac NW...and likewise have stronger and higher heights pushing NE across Canada ahead of that feature.

To me that looks like something very transient with heights that'll rise real quickly after the trough clears our area.

 

The euro ensembles did lift the cool air out and warmed us up, but with the ridge still out in western Canada, we are left with a lingering trough over the East Coast. That's why I said it may also try to get wet at times. I certainly don't see oppressive heat or humidity, but it will try to tickle SNE at times.

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I wonder if you or me will have our first 40's for lows of the summer. Been a long time ORH had 4 lows in the 40s in June...unless you are talking about the new cold season which technically starts July 1st (at least that is how the snowfall season is reset)

Same as Los Angeles rainfall season ironically but in both cases it's logical. Neither get much of their respective ptypes before deep into fall.

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