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2nd Half of August WX Discussion

Quincy

By Quincy,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Its fun trying to decipher the bs from reality everyday here

This is a social resource, this forum/Internet location -- once one really understands that, they either move on, or join the fray. Take your pick, but if you fight it, it's a losing battle.

Back in the days of Wright Weather and Eastern, the forums were policed differently. The moderation was less involved with the playful culture of banter and antics between users. Over the years, that changed. Now ... there are even a few moderators locally, and out in the general forums, that actually go so far as to initiate that kind of contact. Once that happened, unfortunately, one is less likely to find this to be a substantive resource for Meteorological knowledge and/or observations. It just is what it is. It's not right or wrong. There's probably some hypothesis that could be borrowed from formally scienced crowd dynamics that could be applied to explain that evolution.

At some point, some upstart (if it has not already happened) will start a brand new forum out there that has stricter controls, ...specifically the type of banter that is allowed, and it will be a re-focus toward the discussion of theoretical Meteorology, and/or operational Meteorology (forecasting), and/or observational Meteorology (nowcast and storm coverage), and ...70someodd percent of the content that is posted there will be a lot drier and less playful. Frequency of posting will be less.

As an after thought ... the Internet is a new beast upon the landscape of human history. Those that can't handle it, drink the cool-aide, and think the World is ending, because it used to be that ignorance was always bliss; as the cliche goes, but it's true. Meteorites have always been detonating in mid-atmosphere; volcanoes have always erupted and buried civility; massive Earth quakes have always inspired god-art on cave walls; solar storms; cosmic storms; super storms; and plagues: They've always occurred, but ... no one really knew about them until word could radiate outward away from the event at the whopping speed of horseback meets with the erosive force of time drowning interest.

Compare that to this day and age. Wow. Not even the same universe, utterly changed. Twitter, Internet, Telecoms, all being as advanced as they are, and integrating the globe at the speed of light is a true phenomenon, a powerful force, really. It's sociological impact cannot possibly have begun to register fully, as these technologies are merely decades old; contrasting, all the gears and cogs that heretofore constructs Humanity's social engine, took millions of years to evolve. The human mind now has to simultaneously process events, orders of magnitude greater than that which was required before the invention of the mere radio and telephone; not to mention the speed of light era. Interesting.

It doesn't take a tremendous leap to see, perhaps even suspect, social duress erupting as certainly, only fractions of the population are natively capable of handling that flux; there's never been anything in humanity's history that required that kind of processing - humanity's untested. The trick is, identifying the real science(s) and truths amid the din of histrionics and panic.

Well, we got a nice warm humid day here after all. Most sites W of direct marine influence have DPs in the mid to upper 60s, and the temperatures have risen above 80F. Looks like the Euro was too pessimistic about today, when it was modeling a cool complexion to Tues/Wed, last week.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Here's something we haven't been able to say recently ... we are ABOVE machine guidance of highs here in the interior.  In fact, getting rather uncomfortable.  Lots of 86 and 87's popping up, and DPs are 65 to 68 -- borderline uncomfortable.  

 

Definitely not well depicted by global modeling when this period was back whence middle range.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Here's something we haven't been able to say recently ... we are ABOVE machine guidance of highs here in the interior.  In fact, getting rather uncomfortable.  Lots of 86 and 87's popping up, and DPs are 65 to 68 -- borderline uncomfortable.  

 

Definitely not well depicted by global modeling when this period was back whence middle range.

 

Come east young man...come east.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Deep thoughts with Typhoon Tip.

Interesting topic though.

No rain at all here last night, lawn requires sustenance

 

Scott mentioned in jest a couple days ago that it reminded him of one of those agonizing winter events where there's a solid 3-5 in a stripe through CT/RI, and while it's a flurry fest up here above the deformation axis...  

 

Whether mere coincidence or not, that description was spot on!   I don't think I got more than .05 here in Ayer.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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Here's something we haven't been able to say recently ... we are ABOVE machine guidance of highs here in the interior.  In fact, getting rather uncomfortable.  Lots of 86 and 87's popping up, and DPs are 65 to 68 -- borderline uncomfortable.  

 

Definitely not well depicted by global modeling when this period was back whence middle range.

eh...not so fast there Wx Hype. i think the euro had a good handle for the most part:

 

Today...followed by a handle of forecasts from last week:

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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So 3 ...or was it 4 cycles back and the Euro had up slope snow suggested for NW NE attributed to about a billion SD absurdity trough... 

 

Then 2 ...or was it 3 cycles back and it's a little less... Last night's 00z run had all but eradicated the ludicrous notion of 0 or even negative 0 C 850 air S of the border, as the day period passed from D7'ish to D6.   

 

Now on this run, it has a warm sector on the same day, and the trough is so progressive that it only glances the area with seasonal air.   It's a story-line with this guidance that has been playing out for months.  I know I keep harping on this, but it's a perfect example of Euro seemingly being correct about trough presence but being way over amp.  

 

I just think it's something we need to collectively keep in mind in the Met community, as the transition/cool seasons approach.   

 

It's almost comical that it tries to insert another 0 850 air mass into SE Canada late next week, now that it has failed for the one it had yesterday. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Come east young man...come east.

 

I bet the shore would be really nice right now -- just has that vibe.  Gentle flag wobbling on-shore flow... upper 70s.  Occasional seagull wail.  Green tinted sea rising and falling between where the rocks of the Headlands kiss the sea, exposing barnacles, as flowing locks of kelp and ...

 

oh  hem-hem... anyway, yeah.  I miss that.  I lived in Rockport out at the tip end of Cape Ann, from 1984 to 1985. You talk about sticking out in the North Atlantic.  The air there smells marine pretty much 24/7/365.   Even in the winter that is so; but it is different.  Those that live near or at the shore would agree that winter sea air has a different smell to it than summer sea air.  

 

Then my family (my self thus having no choice) moved inland to Acton Ma.  May have been like going to Kansas, it was so different.  Still, even in Acton, I recall one moment in time being rocked with nostalgia, when I walked out of a grocery store late one summer afternoon to the subtle smell of the sea.  Immediately I noticed the leaves on the trees were pointed W; so the sea breeze toted a mere hint of the ocean some 25 miles inland.  And, just then, a seagull wailed, complaining to some pedestrian for interrupting its attempt to claim an abandoned doughnut.  Just for the moment this convergence of senses put one's mind right back in time, if for a fleeting moment.  It's funny how that works sometimes.   

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I bet the shore would be really nice right now -- just has that vibe.  Gentle flag wobbling on-shore flow... upper 70s.  Occasional seagull wail.  Green tinted sea rising and falling between where the rocks of the Headlands kiss the sea, exposing barnacles, as flowing locks of kelp and ...

 

oh  hem-hem... anyway, yeah.  I miss that.  I lived in Rockport out at the tip end of Cape Ann, from 1984 to 1985. You talk about sticking out in the North Atlantic.  The air there smells marine pretty much 24/7/365.   Even in the winter that is so; but it is different.  Those that live near or at the shore would agree that winter sea air has a different smell to it than summer sea air.  

 

Then my family (my self thus having no choice) moved inland to Acton Ma.  May have been like going to Kansas, it was so different.  Still, even in Acton, I recall one moment in time being rocked with nostalgia, when I walked out of a grocery store late one summer afternoon to the subtle smell of the sea.  Immediately I noticed the leaves on the trees were pointed W; so the sea breeze toted a mere hint of the ocean some 25 miles inland.  And, just then, a seagull wailed, complaining to some pedestrian for interrupting its attempt to claim an abandoned doughnut.  Just for the moment this convergence of senses put one's mind right back in time, if for a fleeting moment.  It's funny how that works sometimes.   

 

Tip nostalgia. :lol:

 

Pretty close to what you described.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

It's really fascinating to watch all the ingredients come together. Well modeled too.

 

It is!   And it was ...  and, as the region of postiive 200mb velocities continues to propagate into the Atlantic, I wonder if we at last see a flurry of activity erupt. 

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