CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 We've been getting cool shots - imho - for a month now. It's just that relative to time of the year and seasonal compensation, they have been occasionally muted to some degree. That said, I strongly believe this is simply another of those, but, with constructive wave interference between the Euro bias and any trough that happens to be migrating through at that time. The result of those teaming factors creates this low probability insult. I mentioned this back in the spring, and this solution underscores: This is bad bad omen for extended model lead performance during the cold season. At this, about ever third cycle will likely have a stem-wound phantom up along NE coast from late October through March. Well I meant the first real deep shot with the 540 tickling the nrn tier of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Yeah, this solution is: ((a probable trough translation)+(piece of sh!t model for having a raging, and embarrassing amplitude bias in the D6-10 range))/2 = ....oh man -- are we going to have deal with this bullsh!t during the entire cold season, too!? lol I thought about what you have been harping for a while...the endless supply of phantom troughs digging for oil on the ECM out past day 7. The trough idea may be valid, but probably not dragging sub-freezing air at 4,500ft down to ORH like that product implies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 The Euro trough ideas have generally been correct since late July...just don't take the magnitude at face value when its 200 hours out. We would never take it seriously in winter, so why now during a season when model verifcation is actually worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Part of me wants to go with my gut for BOS as I sit on the hot seat right now, but then again I see some + aspects for rain, too Also, tomorrow has a chance to be crappy in ern areas. yeah. the meso/regional models really tighten the vortmax right over SNE and just dump on us as much of the resulting environment is more favorable for heavy rain. some of the srefs are ridiculous. the globals just shunt the LLJ SE through NY/PA and really would probably equate to a good chunk of SNE just being dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 There is def support for that idea, but the magnitude and timing still have to be worked out. I wish Allan still had his ensembles up because now we are left with Kevin posting random day 10 op progs and then saying how it's so wrong. I mean a day 10 prog is always correct on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 We've been getting cool shots - imho - for a month now. It's just that relative to time of the year and seasonal compensation, they have been occasionally muted to some degree. That said, I strongly believe this is simply another of those, but, with constructive wave interference between the Euro bias and any trough that happens to be migrating through at that time. The result of those teaming factors creates this low probability insult. I mentioned this back in the spring, and this solution underscores: This is bad bad omen for extended model lead performance during the cold season. At this, about ever third cycle will likely have a stem-wound phantom up along NE coast from late October through March. thankfully, you've been here to remind us of this *every day* when discussing the euro...so we shouldn't forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 The Euro trough ideas have generally been correct since late July...just don't take the magnitude at face value when its 200 hours out. We would never take it seriously in winter, so why now during a season when model verifcation is actually worse? Exactly -- it's not so much timing that's the problem; it's almost been entirely a magnitude issue, and one that's been on the deep/cold side. Are the ensembles out yet -- I'd be surprised if the mean was like this ... I bet this is big time outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Well I meant the first real deep shot with the 540 tickling the nrn tier of the US. Well ... I'll tell yeah -- I'm for a cooler than normal autumn this go, and an active winter, quite possibly front loaded, thaw, than a meridional ... more +PNA type latter Feb and March. In order to get the first part of that verified, at some point we will have to break colder in appeal on the model runs ... and go on in to having that happen. I just don't know or have any confidence that this is that time. It's a bit too exotically early -- but obviously we all agree that the oper. Euro is likely on crack with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Well ... I'll tell yeah -- I'm for a cooler than normal autumn this go, and an active winter, quite possibly front loaded, thaw, than a meridional ... more +PNA type latter Feb and March. In order to get the first part of that verified, at some point we will have to break colder in appeal on the model runs ... and go on in to having that happen. I just don't know or have any confidence that this is that time. It's a bit too exotically early -- but obviously we all agree that the oper. Euro is likely on crack with that. Yeah my original post earlier today was just to talk about the idea since it's so darn boring. It just looks like there are teleconnections that support some sort of cool shot coming into the nrn tier of the US around that time..and maybe into the second week of September. I mean I'm not saying extreme cold...just perhaps the first notable shot of the season. We'll see..the euro ensembles weren't too robust at popping a western ridge on the 00z runs. 12z runs coming out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 I mean I'm not saying extreme cold...just perhaps the first notable shot of the season. We'll see..the euro ensembles weren't too robust at popping a western ridge on the 00z runs. 12z runs coming out now. Yeah and that's getting more towards climo first frosts for the usual suspects with troughs in early/mid September. I think the trough idea holds merit, it's been the pattern since the July switch, and see no reason to really deviate from that theme of a ridge in the Midwest and some bagginess over the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Tickling 30s soon for sone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Someone will get drenched tonight in CNE or SNE. It already looks like a meso-low is forming north of Lake Ontario on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Early freezes in Sept. maybe flakes by month end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Someone will get drenched tonight in CNE or SNE. It already looks like a meso-low is forming north of Lake Ontario on radar. Hopefully we ge something down here...everything is brown and leaves are falling off water deprived trees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Sneaky day tomorrow where if BDL is sunny they could sneak up near 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 I have never seen so many dragonflies at once. There are tens if not hundreds flying around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Sneaky day tomorrow where if BDL is sunny they could sneak up near 90 I doubt that. In fact, sneaky meh day further east near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 I doubt that. In fact, sneaky meh day further east near the coast.If sunny interior is 85-88 and humid. All depends on debris clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 If sunny interior is 85-88 and humid. All depends on debris clouds I could see 84 or so if we get a ton of sun, but I think you'll also have CU pop in the aftn with some shwrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Could be unsettled each aftn over the interior into Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Could be unsettled each aftn over the interior into Thursday.Looks like its AN until Labor Day itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Looks like its AN until Labor Day itself There will be another "cooler" shot of air Friday into part of the weekend. Probably closer to above normal further west in SNE...you can keep it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 There will be another "cooler" shot of air Friday into part of the weekend. Probably closer to above normal further west in SNE...you can keep it. If this rain falls apart tonight and we get nothing..I am going to lose it.. This is our last shot for some time Today is 17 days in a row with nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 If this rain falls apart tonight and we get nothing..I am going to lose it.. This is our last shot for some time Today is 17 days in a row with nada You have really had bad luck with rain, almost all of CT has had measurable today. I had a quick tenth this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 I have never seen so many dragonflies at once. There are tens if not hundreds flying around.We had a gigantic one (like dinosaur time) one trapped in our screen gazebo thing the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 You have really had bad luck with rain, almost all of CT has had measurable today. I had a quick tenth this morning. Just dusty and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Look at ALB rad loop ... hard to imagine how most of the region would miss getting wet tonight. may be strata rains in this apparently convectively cursed 2013 summer, but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Just dusty and drydown at IJD rain shower just came through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 We had a gigantic one (like dinosaur time) one trapped in our screen gazebo thing the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Look at ALB rad loop ... hard to imagine how most of the region would miss getting wet tonight. may be strata rains in this apparently convectively cursed 2013 summer, but rain. I could see BOS not getting much at all. The whole thing is sinking south too. Literally you'll go from nothing to heavy rain in 15 miles possibly. Tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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