Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 so far 12z runs bringing some welcomed rain tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 so far 12z runs bringing some welcomed rain tonight. I hope. Euro really gives a lot of rain to western New England. This almost looks like those Jan 2004 clippers that gave a nice 3-5 deal for SW SNE while the atmosphere was choking flurries here. Still not sold on much rain near BOS.....but I could see some spilling in here very late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Yeah, agreed with NCEP here: THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE FIRST SOLUTION TO BE DISCARDED FORDEPICTING THE PRESSURES/FRONTS...WITH ITS UNUSUALLY STRONG ANDNEARLY OUTLYING SOLUTION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING CENTRALCANADA ON SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Wow, 12z SPC WRF has a conv vort go through. Tough forecast. It looks more like hvy rain with iso thunder, but good rains. There is sharpening vort going through so perhaps the solutions hold merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Man the models also hint at a potentially cooler and possibly showery period tomorrow into Thursday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 so far 12z runs bringing some welcomed rain tonight.Some real nice and loud storms being advertised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Some of the hi res models have a Landphoon type feature go right across SNE overnight. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 I hope. Euro really gives a lot of rain to western New England. This almost looks like those Jan 2004 clippers that gave a nice 3-5 deal for SW SNE while the atmosphere was choking flurries here. Still not sold on much rain near BOS.....but I could see some spilling in here very late. Where do you and Will come up with these events? You guys have some great memories. I remember the big storms of like 12+, but recalling a 3-5" clipper from 9 years ago is something I can't seem to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Some of the hi res models have a Landphoon type feature go right across SNE overnight. Wow Told you it would rain, and not just 0.1-.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 26, 2013 Author Share Posted August 26, 2013 Some of the hi res models have a Landphoon type feature go right across SNE overnight. Wow Meh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Where is MPM and his QPF fetish? 12z NAM has over 3" for him by tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Where do you and Will come up with these events? You guys have some great memories. I remember the big storms of like 12+, but recalling a 3-5" clipper from 9 years ago is something I can't seem to do. January 2004 was very frustrating here in ern areas north of Taunton. It was cold as hell and we couldn't by an inch of snow if our life depended on it. Meanwhile, NYC and points west got clipper after clipper. The cold is something I won't forget. Cape Cod canal had arctic sea smoke and icebergs floating on it like it was the Fram Strait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 BTV WRF is juicy too. My yard could use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 January 2004 was very frustrating here in ern areas north of Taunton. It was cold as hell and we couldn't by an inch of snow if our life depended on it. Meanwhile, NYC and points west got clipper after clipper. The cold is something I won't forget. Cape Cod canal had arctic sea smoke and icebergs floating on it like it was the Fram Strait. Jan '04 managed to freeze just about all of Cape Cod Bay and even Nantucket sound. You could walk to Marthas Vinyard that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 congrats on your upslope snow PF day 9 on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 congrats on your upslope snow PF day 9 on the euro Gets the 0C line to about ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Gets the 0C line to about ORH. that's quite an airmass chg from 12z Mon to 00z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Jan '04 managed to freeze just about all of Cape Cod Bay and even Nantucket sound. You could walk to Marthas Vinyard that month. Yeah I was down there...incredible stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 congrats on your upslope snow PF day 9 on the euro LOL that's ridiculous with H85 going below 0C. No way that happens...we've been due for a September dusting up top at 4kft...but I'd look for it later in the month, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 I posted in the Sept thread that evidence for our first real cool shot entering the CONUS is certainly there perhaps later that week or early in the second week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 HRRR sort of clips pike region tonight. Tough call for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Need that Midwest trough for east coast cane hit . Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 HRRR sort of clips pike region tonight. Tough call for this area.Either way some nice bangs tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 hmmm...what to believe...globals or ncep mesos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Need that Midwest trough for east coast cane hit . Nice we do need a midwest trough...but that's about opposite of a midwest trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 LOL that's ridiculous with H85 going below 0C. No way that happens...we've been due for a September dusting up top at 4kft...but I'd look for it later in the month, haha. Yeah, this solution is: ((a probable trough translation)+(piece of sh!t model for having a raging, and embarrassing amplitude bias in the D6-10 range))/2 = ....oh man -- are we going to have deal with this bullsh!t during the entire cold season, too!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Summer is resoundingly over on the euro post Labor Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 hmmm...what to believe...globals or ncep mesos Part of me wants to go with my gut for BOS as I sit on the hot seat right now, but then again I see some + aspects for rain, too. We have an amplifying s/w this time around. Also, tomorrow has a chance to be crappy in ern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Some of the hi res models have a Landphoon type feature go right across SNE overnight. Wow Ugh. Please stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 I posted in the Sept thread that evidence for our first real cool shot entering the CONUS is certainly there perhaps later that week or early in the second week. We've been getting cool shots - imho - for a month now. It's just that relative to time of the year and seasonal compensation, they have been occasionally muted to some degree. That said, I strongly believe this is simply another of those, but, with constructive wave interference between the Euro bias and any trough that happens to be migrating through at that time. The result of those teaming factors creates this low probability insult. I mentioned this back in the spring, and this solution underscores: This is bad bad omen for extended model lead performance during the cold season. At this, about ever third cycle will likely have a stem-wound phantom up along NE coast from late October through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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