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2nd Half of August WX Discussion


Quincy

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Kev,

Let me know when you guys are in Brooklyn. I am right down the road from the fields. I will stop by and buy you a wiener and a snocone from the concession stand.

We went to Andover and Canterbury last season, but they moved up into NCentral Conf with teams like Farmington, Glastonbury and South Windsor because our team was too good. So now we play with the big boys
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That drenching .10-.25 will really help. This reminds me of the last few fronts where NNE gets most of it. Maybe Wed is our turn

lol, you aren't in the .1-.25" zone. In the winter you'd interpret that as 4-8" not 1-3".

Anyway, It's got you 0.25-.5"...maybe you'll get something worthwhile.

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Nice... it must have been a perfect weekend for that. Perfection.

Couldn't have been any better-still warm enough for a swim, but cool enough for a campfire and good sleeping weather.  We were joking about sitting in front of a campfire in July when it was in the 90's all the time-imagine that?

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Here's a graph from my IR temp cloud sensor from 8/23. The sensor basically senses the temperature of the lowest cloud layer or the clear sky temp around 450-500mb. It's pretty easy to see when a cloud passed overhead. That was the day of the recent cold fropa with clouds and -SHRA around midnight (5Z), then clearing the rest of the night, and the fair weather Cu with CAA during the day. By sunset, the skies cleared.

 

post-3-0-64466000-1377482695_thumb.png

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BOS has a met embedded in the Rim Fire.....I've been following mostly on twitter.....any of you guys know him? Check tweet below....didn't want to name him...OT probably but it's slow...

https://twitter.com/nwsboston/status/371820802087583744

I heard BTV also sent a met out west for fire forecasting or whatever that IMET program is....it sounds pretty cool but that's gotta be hard to go from forecasting New England weather, to forecasting high mountain fire weather out west. I'm surprised there aren't more local forecasters out there for that sort of stuff but maybe there's just so many fires they need to pull from east coast offices.

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Well, we got one of those weenie cold ens member runs into the d8-10 ec op run last night. That would be a definite heat fail. The ens have a cooler look in the extended too although they're warmer than the op...as you'd expect. Hopefully it pans out...I'd be glad to be done with the high heat.

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Ah lovely day...only a tenth of an inch of rain overnight, but now a nice sheet drizzle up above 3,000ft in the clouds. Visibility goes between zero and 1/4sm in the fog up here. No COC day today.

View from the bottom of the thick overcast beginning at 3000ft.

Inside the cloud...nothing on radar but raining pretty steadily in small droplet sheets.

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I think I see what's going on here... 

 

There is a diffused warm boundary that for all intents and purposes is going to wall-off the continental torridity associated with that massive dome of heights, from getting in SNE ...very far.  It may get as far as ALB-PVD or so...but as convective plumes originating up over Ontario and the GL channel their ways SE along the convergence/frontal lift, rain cooled (convective processing) air will likely cause the boundary to settle back SW some.   This will probably by cyclically on-going through later Thursday this week, during the time of this ridge's life-span, keeping our weather rather temperate in nature. Not a certainty...just the way things set now. 

 

After that, the flow was originally slated to flatten some, and perhaps re-position the ridge node closer to the OV; though you wouldn't know it reading NCEP -- they masterfully ignored the 20 to 23C, 850mb air layering depicted over S Ontario for three day's worth of extended forecast discussions.  

 

Turns out they may have have been right to do so, as the Euro and GGEM have decided to usurp the entire tempo of that by carving out a full-latitude trough pretty abruptly -- continuity break.   Not sure I buy that, though.  

 

I don't have a problem with the pattern finding a way to avoid bringing warmth. ...Seems to be a trend since July anyway; if it's not one thing, it's been another.  But, I just know via personal experience in using those products from day-to-day, week-to-week, onward to month-to-month, given any excuse to do so they rush to carve out +PNAPs beyond D5/6.  

 

In easy terms, they are probably over-doing that.   I'd like to see some modeling continuity on what happens when that ridge flattens in 4.5 days before biting on a deep full-latitude solution.   The last 2 cycles of the oper. Euro did have some trough introduction into southern Canada by D9, and I wondered, ...'When/if that feature crosses D8, and 90W, is this model going to go dig happy again.' Sure enough...       

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