2nd Half of August WX Discussion

[CapturedNature]

Currently 48°...will tonight be the last low in the 40s this summer?  That will make #15 for me which is right on average.

 

Kevin will be happy - Local media already calling for 90° next Wednesday & Thursday.

[moneypitmike]

You'd be cutting wood and watching grass grow at home. Now you actually get to see what normal life is like in a beautiful area.

 

You're right on the wood--but I'm REALLY behind on that this year.  Plus, I'd be mowing the grass, not watching it grow. 

 

Seriously though, it is pretty out here.  But even though I'd grown up on the water, I've never been a beach person.

[CoastalWx]

Still a pretty warm pattern overall with above avg heights and zonal flow all across the US and Canada, but with lower heights to the south...it's a split flow look which makes us prone to high pressure to the north and onshore winds at times. You can see this on the models. Phil said it right I think...late summer doldrums kind of look.

[Damage In Tolland]

 A much more manageable low of 58.1 today..5 dgerees warmer than yesterday. Last low in the 50's here until late Sept possibly?

[Damage In Tolland]

Terrible news. A warm fall. Nothing worse than that..except a warm winter

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

You're right on the wood--but I'm REALLY behind on that this year.  Plus, I'd be mowing the grass, not watching it grow. 

 

Seriously though, it is pretty out here.  But even though I'd grown up on the water, I've never been a beach person.

Make sure you walk out to "the knob" at Quisset harbor.

[CoastalWx]

Terrible news. A warm fall. Nothing worse than that..except a warm winter

 

 

That doesn't seem terribly warm..looks like they are banking on a -NAO? No offense to them, but could care less about that graphic.

[S&P]

Terrible news. A warm fall. Nothing worse than that..except a warm winter

 

for me great news, friday night lights in shorts and a sweat shirt, no hat. theres plenty of time for cold and snow

[Damage In Tolland]

That doesn't seem terribly warm..looks like they are banking on a -NAO? No offense to them, but could care less about that graphic.

Also banking on 1 or more tropical hits, hence the flood threat

[Damage In Tolland]

GFS is much warmer next week than Euro..And remember how Scooter posted the other day how poorly the Euro has been performing

[CoastalWx]

GFS is much warmer next week than Euro..And remember how Scooter posted the other day how poorly the Euro has been performing

 

The GFS op drops a cold front down too...remember I said we may be prone to these cooler pushes from the north.

 

Also lets look at the 00z ensembles (not the op runs) for apples to apples comparison. Both models are pretty mild and also try to hint at a cold front coming later next week. Both models trended a tick cooler for later next week and especially next weekend.

[Damage In Tolland]

The GFS op drops a cold front down too...remember I said we may be prone to these cooler pushes from the north.

 

Also lets look at the 00z ensembles (not the op runs) for apples to apples comparison. Both models are pretty mild and also try to hint at a cold front coming later next week. Both models trended a tick cooler for later next week and especially next weekend.

Diff is GFS has widespread 90 readings whereas Euro doesn't.

[Ginx snewx]

So much for the heat on last night's euro. Pretty much 80s or a 90F tickle a day or two and then we work a fropa through d8-9 like the ens have been advertising.

Nice

[CoastalWx]

Diff is GFS has widespread 90 readings whereas Euro doesn't.

 

Both models aren't exactly excited for 90s, but I think one or two days may do it for places like BDL and BOS. In fact GFS maybe argues for one day...Thursday possibly.

[Ginx snewx]

Both models aren't exactly excited for 90s, but I think one or two days may do it for places like BDL and BOS. In fact GFS maybe argues for one day...Thursday possibly.

Scooter I believe when you were talking about the Euros performance you were referring to handling of tropical systems and convection not overall patterns, correct?

[Ginx snewx]

Based on where they stand and the models predictions, a below normal August seems very possible for BDL, PVD and ORH

[Whineminster]

Ugh, of course for the final heat of summer around here I'll be in AZ not experiencing any damaging dews

[Damage In Tolland]

It looks like we go into a very extended above normal pattern over the next 30 days or so. That doesn't mean big heat, just a constant above normal theme. The last of the cool mornings today for some time and days in the 80's with an occasional 90 sprinkled in. Not exactly how you want September to look

[Ginx snewx]

As discussed yesterday ENS are starting to group on another phase shift beginning day 8 with a precipitous AO NAO drop and a rising PNA. I know in cool season this would lead to a heavy QPF event not so sure the correlation is anything more than noise in late summer but at the minimum with that signal looks like troughiness will be back. Euro ens drop the 10C 850 line pretty low in NE with most of SNE 12C

[CoastalWx]

Scooter I believe when you were talking about the Euros performance you were referring to handling of tropical systems and convection not overall patterns, correct?

 

Yeah, not really in terms of what Kevin is saying. I did say that we should watch out for any downstream effects that may be a result of any tropical systems in the WPAC...IE if the euro cannot handle it properly..the solution it shows may be in error. However, the euro very well may nail storms from this point forward....just saying it's something to watch.

 

I also said the ensembles don't exhibit the variability the op runs have, but that is well known. Yet, the op run is always quoted to promote warmth or cold. Any op run beyond day 6 certainly should not be taken verbatim.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah, not really in terms of what Kevin is saying. I did say that we should watch out for any downstream effects that may be a result of any tropical systems in the WPAC...IE if the euro cannot handle it properly..the solution it shows may be in error. However, the euro very well may nail storms from this point forward....just saying it's something to watch.

 

I also said the ensembles don't exhibit the variability the op runs have, but that is well known. Yet, the op run is always quoted to promote warmth or cold. Any op run beyond day 6 certainly should not be taken verbatim.

Also the westward moving typhoon in the Pacific near China signals to us that there won't be any troughiness in the East

[CoastalWx]

Also the westward moving typhoon in the Pacific near China signals to us that there won't be any troughiness in the East

 

I don't think it signals much of anything.

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't think it signals much of anything.

The general rule is if they recurve out there you see a trough in the East 6-10 day later. It's a JB rule that actually works.And if they move west you generally don't see any troughing in the Eastern US

 

That to me says any troughiness shown by modeling is likely incorrect

[CoastalWx]

The general rule is if they recurve out there you see a trough in the East 6-10 day later. It's a JB rule that actually works.And if they move west you generally don't see any troughing in the Eastern US

 

That to me says any troughiness shown by modeling is likely incorrect

 

Well there is way more to it than that. Something moving into China really doesn't do much unless it blew up into a huge extratropical system and scooted northeast. The cold front progged is really a function of just inherent variability of the flow and some ridging over the Canadian prairies. It probably won't be significant, but it may act to cool us down. We'll be prone to those NE winds from time to time.

[Ginx snewx]

Sept 2010 prior to our epic winter was an amazing + 4. So who cares

[JBG]

I was in the Rockies at 12k and had rain, hail, and

Snow all at the same time.

I had that on July 8, sans the snow, on Flat Top Mountain in Colorado.

[SJonesWX]

It looks like we go into a very extended above normal pattern over the next 30 days or so. That doesn't mean big heat, just a constant above normal theme. The last of the cool mornings today for some time and days in the 80's with an occasional 90 sprinkled in. Not exactly how you want September to look

i like a warm september, it makes the late october cooldown feel that much better.

[Typhoon Tip]

Awesome!

 

http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/world/2013/08/15/vo-japan-lightning-train.atsuhiro-johnokuchi.html

[JBG]

i like a warm september, it makes the late october cooldown feel that much better.

My own preference would be a late, lingering summer through around Thanksgiving, then a sudden, hard hit of winter.  Think Fall 1960, 1978, 2000 and 2010.

[powderfreak]

It looks like we go into a very extended above normal pattern over the next 30 days or so. That doesn't mean big heat, just a constant above normal theme. The last of the cool mornings today for some time and days in the 80's with an occasional 90 sprinkled in. Not exactly how you want September to look

 

You seem very in-tune with how we all want each month to look and feel.