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2nd Half of August WX Discussion


Quincy

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Still stuck at D10...maybe we'll get it inside 7 days eventually.

 

I'm beginning to suspect that next week will be warmer than the oper. Euro.   How much so, unsure, but hat spurious s/w it engineers from seemingly nowhere, and then uses it to close off a mid-level center and associated sfc wave/backside CAA and warm suppression is about as absurd an evolution as it is obvious it's convective feedback. 

 

Thus, removing that feature's ( ...perhaps not entirely, but in part (I'd be okay with a small convectively induced v-max born off an MCS or something,...sure)) influence on the field one would have to go warmer given the surrounding synoptics.  

 

Fwiw, NCEP also denotes the convective nature of that wave and implies it's over doing it in the NE.

 

The CMC/Euro and to some extend also the GFS have all three been shearing vorticity away from Ivo remnants, circulating that material up and over the ridge, and then using that as a kind of zygote for S/W genesis N of the GL.   I suppose that's possible... but I think it more likely that it contributes to derecho/MCS type activity more than instructing the synoptic evolution.    

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I'm beginning to suspect that next week will be warmer than the oper. Euro.   How much so, unsure, but hat spurious s/w it engineers from seemingly nowhere, and then uses it to close off a mid-level center and associated sfc wave/backside CAA and warm suppression is about as absurd an evolution as it is obvious it's convective feedback. 

 

Thus, removing that feature's ( ...perhaps not entirely, but in part (I'd be okay with a small convectively induced v-max born off an MCS or something,...sure)) influence on the field one would have to go warmer given the surrounding synoptics.  

 

Fwiw, NCEP also denotes the convective nature of that wave and implies it's over doing it in the NE.

cmc and gfs have the same general pattern. and have off/on again for days. cmc is like 1000 mb S of LI deepening to 995 SE of the CHH/ACK. so the euro isn't alone in sharpening this trough as it passes SNE. in fact, i think if you go back and look at some of the GFS runs from (amazingly) like 5 days ago...they were doing this with this same feature 

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cmc and gfs have the same general pattern. and have off/on again for days. cmc is like 1000 mb S of LI deepening to 995 SE of the CHH/ACK. so the euro isn't alone in sharpening this trough as it passes SNE. in fact, i think if you go back and look at some of the GFS runs from (amazingly) like 5 days ago...they were doing this with this same feature 

Pretty similar evolution on the models to our last coastal with CMC first to the party

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It is fookin' chilly out and feels like fall.

Already mid/upper 50s at 8pm up this way and falling quickly.

The zone forecast has low 40s tonight (this ones for Jerry ;)

Rest of Tonight

Clear. Patchy dense fog. Lows in the lower 40s. Light and variable winds.

And LOL at the MOS showing 31F tonight at SLK.

"Temperatures the tricky part of the overnight period...estimating the degree of cooling. Mav continues trend of forecasting 31 degrees in kslk...the cool spot of the County Warning Area. Met a little warmer with 37 at kslk. This trend continues across the forecast area with met running 4 degrees or so above the mav. Given present dewpoints to drop into the middle-upper 40s...find it difficult that remaining boundary layer moisture will allow temperatures to fall to cooler mav temperatures. Instead expect a very heavy dew with patchy dense fog in the usual protected areas."

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It is fookin' chilly out and feels like fall.

Already mid/upper 50s at 8pm up this way and falling quickly.

The zone forecast has low 40s tonight (this ones for Jerry ;)

Rest of Tonight

Clear. Patchy dense fog. Lows in the lower 40s. Light and variable winds.

And LOL at the MOS showing 31F tonight at SLK.

"Temperatures the tricky part of the overnight period...estimating the degree of cooling. Mav continues trend of forecasting 31 degrees in kslk...the cool spot of the County Warning Area. Met a little warmer with 37 at kslk. This trend continues across the forecast area with met running 4 degrees or so above the mav. Given present dewpoints to drop into the middle-upper 40s...find it difficult that remaining boundary layer moisture will allow temperatures to fall to cooler mav temperatures. Instead expect a very heavy dew with patchy dense fog in the usual protected areas."

74 warm degrees here. Lucky you.

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