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2nd Half of August WX Discussion

Quincy

By Quincy,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

BOS at 11 84/63 with a trend to stronger sun.

 

FIT here in the interior is 1F warmer than yesterday's noon ob, and they managed 89 for a high there.   Looking at vis imagery, other than some transparent mare's tails blown off from the south coastal activity, it's very nearly full sun up here along rt 2.  

 

One thing that is interesting about this "heat" is that though the actual degree of departures is relatively modest, the feel of the thing is a bit worse if you are out of door, ...say hauled up in a traffic jam without any A.C..  Or doing lawn work...etc.  The lack of wind and the still fairly high sun angle embellishes the appeal of an 86F temp.   

 

Ever so subtle compression out ahead of the cfront may at last add the missing tick or two to get more sites legit 90 - we'll see.  Am noticing BOS with 240 at 10mph, where yesterday they fought off a s-breeze at this hour. So there is a subtle pg forcing and that should register a little. 

 

Then, we get a nice reprieve for the weekend.  I am not sure how "autumn -like" it will really be, though a sensible recession in temp and dew pts will be nice.  Still seeing 22C in the T1 level on FRH grid isn't really autumn vibe.  More like a nice day in May.  

 

I agree with Scott on the MCS appeal for next week. I mentioned this my self a couple/few times recently, that if the main body of the ridge amplifying in the ~ MV region of the CONUS situates W of 90W, we end up with more NW trajectory in the mean deep layer flow.  That means we have a nice gradient of heat versus seasonal cooling over SE Canada, and as we all know ... convective complexes love to run down those interfaces like a Amtrak locomotive with a drunkin' engineer at the helm.  That said, I am also not completely sold that we won't see more meaningful heat getting in here.   

 

If you go back and look at the 72 hour oper. ECMWF, it has a spurious and very tiny "dent" in one contour of the 500mb heights, up ~ near Montana.  By hour 144, it is strengthened this dent to be an actual synoptic presence in the flow over S Ontario ... eventually dropping S along the NE Coast, and even closing it off into an intense beta-meso scaled gale center over the eastern GOM waters.  

 

Doubt it.  From butterfly wing flap to menace, the Euro does this A LOT.  Even NCEP mentions it in their extended range discussion that it is too likely attributed to convection to believe it ... meanwhile, of course the ensemble mean has no interest in any such feature.  The reason it is important for me is because from where I am sitting the main reason why the oper. Euro does not bring the 19+C, 850mb well mixed continental heat into the region is because the backside flow around this "imagery" entity is shunting the air mass down into the MA.  But, that's this particular run.   The ensemble mean, while not manufacturing any such feature, is just slightly flatter enough to not bring the heat in for it's own rite.  The GFS has yet got its own reasons to not really bring the heat in, having to do with a slightly farther west placement of the ridge, such that we end up in an oscillatory pattern of moderate heat followed by fropas.   

 

Basically... three reasons there to fail bringing the season's [probably] last push for heat - oy vay.   Yet, the heat will be lurking.  I tell you what, the models could easily converge on a more eastward position with that ridge, just the same.  Time will tell. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Well 33 days so far I believe since Logan hit 90. I think 90 will be tough with the cirrus, otherwise as John said....240 wind direction is a good way to do it. We'll see..maybe it thins out enough.

 

As far as the heat goes next week..I still think NW flow for the most part will keep it mostly SW, but I wouldn't be shocked at one of those brief one day pushes from the west, then fropa. It's not an easy forecast, because we may also battle NE winds with any low pressure or MCS type feature to the SW. Like John said, if the flow does flatten out a bit..it could be more than one day. The Plains are going to absolutely cook, while nrn Canada freezes.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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Well 33 days so far I believe since Logan hit 90. I think 90 will be tough with the cirrus, otherwise as John said....240 wind direction is a good way to do it. We'll see..maybe it thins out enough.

 

As far as the heat goes next week..I still think NW flow for the most part will keep it mostly SW, but I wouldn't be shocked at one of those brief one day pushes from the west, then fropa. It's not an easy forecast, because we may also battle NE winds with any low pressure or MCS type feature to the SW. Like John said, if the flow does flatten out a bit..it could be more than one day. The Plains are going to absolutely cook, while nrn Canada freezes.

yeah they are going to roast out there...and it actually takes over a pretty large chunk of real estate. hopefully it stays SW. looks like it will for the most part

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

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Posted

Why aren't any of us from the board invited to your wedding? 

...Speak for yourself.  Got my invite the other day, including a request for me to be at the rehearsal dinner as well.  I am quite psyched. 

We all know that people that you chat with on an internet board, text, and talk to and get together with every few months are worth the wedding invite.  Never mind the relatives and close friends.  2 tables of internet friends should definitely be in order.  If the list gets too big, then axe Aunt Matilda, and keep Wx forum buds.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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...Speak for yourself.  Got my invite the other day, including a request for me to be at the rehearsal dinner as well.  I am quite psyched. 

We all know that people that you chat with on an internet board, text, and talk to and get together with every few months are worth the wedding invite.  Never mind the relatives and close friends.  2 tables of internet friends should definitely be in order.  If the list gets too big, then axe Aunt Matilda, and keep Wx forum buds.

:lmao:

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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...Speak for yourself. Got my invite the other day, including a request for me to be at the rehearsal dinner as well. I am quite psyched.

We all know that people that you chat with on an internet board, text, and talk to and get together with every few months are worth the wedding invite. Never mind the relatives and close friends. 2 tables of internet friends should definitely be in order. If the list gets too big, then axe Aunt Matilda, and keep Wx forum buds.

Meghan seated you with Ray, Scooter, Phil and I. Open bar too.
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