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2nd Half of August WX Discussion

Quincy

By Quincy,
in New England

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

Box says says cooler temperatures coming this weekend then an increase to normal temperatures and higher dews as we likely have many s/w's and boundary over our head.

Sounds like a nice cool down and a slight increase in temps likely offset by the unsettled and stormy weather as we are stuck in between the heat and the colder air.

Spells nothing significant at all in terms of heat

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

I think his idea of a lawn burning might be a bit different than what some of us consider. Maybe it's burning as soon as the LESCO neon green fades.

 

lol..Your posts crack me up some times.  Yeah, chemical burns are a little different from natural "burn".  I was in my woods over the weekend and things are as green as can be.  More and more of the early turning stressed trees are starting to have some color in the them so maybe the chemically treated lawns are stressed out with no water to dilute the acidic compounds that applied over and over.

 

I guess if you want the perfect lawn, you could go with artificial grass like they have at Gillette Stadium.

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NECT

NECT

Posted
Posted

Who cares? Have you seen lawns burning?

Burning, no. Showing some preliminary signs of stress due to lack of rain, sure. I can remember summers that my lawn just didn't grow much at all for a few straight weeks in July, and we're not close to that sort of thing. At least my lawn isn't. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

lol..Your posts crack me up some times. Yeah, chemical burns are a little different from natural "burn". I was in my woods over the weekend and things are as green as can be. More and more of the early turning stressed trees are starting to have some color in the them so maybe the chemically treated lawns are stressed out with no water to dilute the acidic compounds that applied over and over.

I guess if you want the perfect lawn, you could go with artificial grass like they have at Gillette Stadium.

It hasn't rained in two weeks up here and likewise I haven't seen any burnt out lawns. Mine isn't growing like it was during the 3 month monsoon of MJJ, and there's a little more yellow-ish green in spots but nothing that anyone except maybe an OCD landscaper might notice.

It just looks like late-August...everything is not as vibrant green as it was, but starting to take on an early fall look. This time of year though its either like 5" of rain in a tropical storm moisture feed, or a month of dry weather. It's not the time of year for 0.25-0.5" every three days. It is all or nothing in August and September.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Was a "heat wave" really well advertised though?   

 

I don't think it was.  

 

I saw most television Mets with 87's over the last few days.  

 

I think I was the loudest cheerleader for 90 this week, and I was very iffy about it.  That's not well advertising -- but I'm obviously less than certain what is referenced or in mind with that.  

 

The MOS guidance has been busting too high by a significant 3 to 7F in some cases, though I notice a little downward correction came out today.  I think it would be more fair to analyze those busts as to why, more than poking fun at that pattern -- because those of the heat-doubt autopilot kind, sort of got lucky on this one.   The pattern supports it from the 50,000 foot view;  the MOS products hit 90 and 91 numerously;  it's far more interesting to determine what went wrong, and Meteorological. 

 

Re next week. Imho the ridge is just ever so slightly too far west, and that is causing the models to error with the NE sector flow as it goes around.  The Euro is more guilty of this, but the GFS is doing as well, taking these tiny voriticity maxes that are barely discernible up N of MN, and then amplifying them from some source, possibly convection, and then subsequently using them to dent the 500mb height contouring.  That seems as plausible as not. Tough call.  -- thing is, with heat W/SW of us, and NW flow aloft, at least MCS' would seem possible.  It will be interesting to see if that works out, or if more heat makes it in for a kind of last hurrah.  

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

The pattern supports it from the 50,000 foot view; the MOS products hit 90 and 91 numerously; it's far more interesting to determine what went wrong, and Meteorological.

So any thoughts on why MOS has been failing?

A lot of the MOS guidance was too hot earlier in the summer too...spitting out near triple-digit heat when only low 90s realized. It seems to be biased warm on the hottest days. It's not like we are verifying cloudy with low mixing and small lapse rates. The SFC temperatures we've seen seem to be fine with regards to what the H85 temps are...but you said the 50,000ft view would lead to more widespread 90F, what variable is arguing for higher temps and possibly pushing MOS too high?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

There were some borderline temps aloft to crack 90 for three days straight with a late April sun. This is part of the reason. It would have also helped to have a strong downslope westerly wind to maximize compression off the western and central hills but that did not occur either. I figured with fairly high confidence even two days would be a stretch for some areas. MOS has been running too warm for over a year now during the warm months.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

So any thoughts on why MOS has been failing?

A lot of the MOS guidance was too hot earlier in the summer too...spitting out near triple-digit heat when only low 90s realized. It seems to be biased warm on the hottest days. It's not like we are verifying cloudy with low mixing and small lapse rates. The SFC temperatures we've seen seem to be fine with regards to what the H85 temps are...but you said the 50,000ft view would lead to more widespread 90F, what variable is arguing for higher temps and possibly pushing MOS too high?

 

You know I really I'm having to leap at possible answers there.   I don't honestly know.

 

I was dancing around the idea that the winds have been very light, so the mixing depths have not been as tall as the 850mb level -- we could see if that is true by looking at the sounding (markers for boundary-pause along the curve).  But then I assumed a 900mb level BL, that layer was still ~20C a that level, which the adiabat supports about 29C. What makes that mysterious is that by standard rule of thumb you add 3 to 5F to the converted temp for the 2-meter.   So 29 = 84.2 + 4 (say..) and you got 88  BINGO.

 

So wtf was MOS...  the only thing I can think of is that MOS isn't purely mathematically derived.  It has interpretive algorithms, combined with adiabats and climo and other junk.  We'd probably have to talk to the modelers to figure it out.  The thing is ... uniform error on both days. I think that's systemic more than atmospheric, frankly.  What that is, don't know.  

 

50,000 foot view was just the ridge nosing.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

There were some borderline temps aloft to crack 90 for three days straight with a late April sun. This is part of the reason. It would have also helped to have a strong downslope westerly wind to maximize compression off the western and central hills but that did not occur either. I figured with fairly high confidence even two days would be a stretch for some areas. MOS has been running too warm for over a year now during the warm months.

 

 

I'm thinking more along those lines, too (bolded).  I was just mentioning to Powder' the lack of wind/mixing.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

So wtf was MOS... the only thing I can think of is that MOS isn't purely mathematically derived. It has interpretive algorithms, combined with adiabats and climo and other junk. We'd probably have to talk to the modelers to figure it out. The thing is ... uniform error on both days. I think that's systemic more than atmospheric, frankly. What that is, don't know.

I was wondering about climate input and this is a whole other topic, but as many have noted, we seem to be in a period that favors warmer than average temperatures in the 1990s and 2000s; the past say 15-20 summers have seemed to be hotter rather than cooler in the means. Some summers it seems like places such as BDL can hit 90F at least excuse imaginable. Without knowing what goes into model output statistics, it's impossible to say but it's almost like MOS products pick up on the background theme of warmth in the means. It's not like we are consistently churning out below normal annual temperatures.
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I was wondering about climate input and this is a whole other topic, but as many have noted, we seem to be in a period that favors warmer than average temperatures in the 1990s and 2000s; the past say 15-20 summers have seemed to be hotter rather than cooler in the means. Some summers it seems like places such as BDL can hit 90F at least excuse imaginable. Without knowing what goes into model output statistics, it's impossible to say but it's almost like MOS products pick up on the background theme of warmth in the means. It's not like we are consistently churning out below normal annual temperatures.

 

Good insight there.  Could be part of the "junk" in terms of trend, sure.  Which begs the loaded question, if so ... what is it in the background that is usurping the trend?  

 

Muah hahaha.  Hm, does that continue into the autumn?   I've already stated my case in the other thread as to why I think this winter could be good for cold, perhaps snow. But I wasn't honestly keying in on anything like that.  Interesting.  It would only add.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Might be a high launch at BOS tomorrow.

Probably at a bunch of spots too. Temps at BTV have held at 76F the past two hours with south winds and they may struggle to get below 70F if they don't go calm. Montpelier/MPV at 1200ft is stalled at 72F when last night they were at 62F at this time...so running 10F warmer tonight.

We've gone calm here in the mountain valley and are at 66F, but some light fog is already starting to develop so our drop will halt soon.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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I think you can beat MOS if you look at things like 850 temps. MOS has really loved to throw up temps only supported by 11C/KM lapse rates. This time of year you can have high thickness "meh" heat. What do I mean by that? Well it just means that 572 thicknesses for instance may only give you 89F. It's just how the doldrums of August are. What is sort of skewing the high thickness are the warm temps aloft from 800 mb on up.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

I believe I said around 19 days for 90 in BOS back in July when everyone thought we would

burst into flames. At least I think I told pickles I would take the under on 20. So far 17.

You're gong to win this one unless that mid country heat progged ends up much further east. Biggest risk for AOA 90 is today and then perhaps a day during Labor Day weekend.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Made it down to 59° so my streak of lows below 60 continues.  It is noticeably muggy out there!

 

I missed sub 60.0's two nights ago (60.5), but managed a whopping 59.8 last night.  Sounds like today's warmth will be more real than the faux heat GC had  yesterday. 

 

Hopefully will catch some storms en route from Gettysburg home today.  Looking forward to seeing the Battlefield.  It's a really sobering place to visit. 

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