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2nd Half of August WX Discussion


Quincy

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At least the I-10 belt in southern AZ can offer up some pretty decent thunderstorms this time of year. I've been through a few doozies in my travels out there.

 

Monsoon season gives good storms down there...though they usually aren't severe. But you can get some really sweet light shows out of those storms.

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for me, it's fine for a few days at a time. i mean i don't want a summer full of gray skies, rain and fog but on the flip side, boring weather just makes me angry.

sure but it's dog days for a reason from now until late Sept is changeable weather lovers worst season unless a tropical system appears.
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[kevin] where people live, it's going to be 80 [kevin]

lol the closest 80F I can find on models for Saturday are isolated areas near NYC proper, PHL, and then there are more widespread low 80s near DC. 12z NAM has most of CT with mid-70s for a high, low 70s north of ORH, and upper 60s to low 70s from East Slope northward in VT/NH. MoneyPit will struggle to get above 70F on Saturday.

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lol the closest 80F I can find on models for Saturday are isolated areas near NYC proper, PHL, and then there are more widespread low 80s near DC. 12z NAM has most of CT with mid-70s for a high, low 70s north of ORH, and upper 60s to low 70s from East Slope northward in VT/NH. MoneyPit will struggle to get above 70F on Saturday.

Prog. here is 78. He might not make it.

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Prog. here is 78. He might not make it.

We should see a pretty good difference from the CT Valley and hills this weekend....very dry airmass but probably still some fair weather cumulus over the terrain with cold pool overhead. Airmass is so dry that precip will be out of the question but with WNW flow maybe some compressional heating and drying in the valley. If someone tickles 78- 80F it'd probably be CEF-BDL area but with like a dry 30% RH, lol.

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guidance really cooks the plains later this weekend into next week with that huge ridge just stuck there. seems like we would/should avoid most of that nonsense with general NW flow persisting overall. 

 

it's actually kind of funny because you could conceivably end up somewhat "chilly" depending upon exactly how and where the frontal zone ends up nearby...but have 90s not too far to the west of new england 

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guidance really cooks the plains later this weekend into next week with that huge ridge just stuck there. seems like we would/should avoid most of that nonsense with general NW flow persisting overall. 

 

it's actually kind of funny because you could conceivably end up somewhat "chilly" depending upon exactly how and where the frontal zone ends up nearby...but have 90s not too far to the west of new england 

eventually would think we have some "over the top" heat with that setup?

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guidance really cooks the plains later this weekend into next week with that huge ridge just stuck there. seems like we would/should avoid most of that nonsense with general NW flow persisting overall. 

 

it's actually kind of funny because you could conceivably end up somewhat "chilly" depending upon exactly how and where the frontal zone ends up nearby...but have 90s not too far to the west of new england 

 

 

It (the Euro) actually puts us north of a weak sfc low early next week...if that verified, we'd be stuck in murk probably...or at the very least, a lot of cloudiness and weak onshore flow while it bakes in the Great Lakes.

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eventually would think we have some "over the top" heat with that setup?

yeah maybe for a day or two. that's what the euro has been trying to do the last couple of runs. but this time of year though it would probably be short-lived if it happens with that ridge so far west. if it can move east a bit we'd cook but once you start noticeably cooling the far N latitudes...that NW flow will be quick to cut into the heat. 

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When was the last time BDL had zero 90 degrees days in August?

Today will be very close...

Since 1949, they've only had 5 months of August without a 90 degree temperature.

2008, 1994, 1986, 1967, 1954.

Mixed winters following...se bad, some ok.

BOS is close now (31C up to the minute)

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Mixed winters following...se bad, some ok. BOS is close now (31C up to the minute)

Since 1920, here are the months of August (13/93) that Logan Airport did not reach 90:

 

2008, 2000, 1986, 1982, 1972, 1967, 1964, 1962, 1951, 1950, 1940, 1934 and 1927.

 

On a side note, the Day 8-10 Euro has changed tune...it now shows a trough east of New England with neutral or slightly negative 500mb height anomalies for this part of the country.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html

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