2nd Half of August WX Discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

Does anyone know if MT. Whitney in Cali gets good snows in the winter? I have a friend who just hiked it last week and she said they told her it doesn't snow much there . That's not correct is it?

[Tropopause_Fold]

Does anyone know if MT. Whitney in Cali gets good snows in the winter? I have a friend who just hiked it last week and she said they told her it doesn't snow much there . That's not correct is it?

if only there was a place - like maybe on the internet - you could just type in a question or location and get information on it...

[Damage In Tolland]

if only there was a place - like maybe on the internet - you could just type in a question or location and get information on it...

I did do that. But I know there's some folks here that are familiar with wx out there, and call me crazy, but since this is a wx board in the doldrums of summer with nothing going on for the next 30 days, I figured I'd ask

[CoastalWx]

Does anyone know if MT. Whitney in Cali gets good snows in the winter? I have a friend who just hiked it last week and she said they told her it doesn't snow much there . That's not correct is it?

 

What do they define as Mt Whitney? The area nearby or the mtn? It's obviously elevation dependent, but they get plenty of snow overall. Better snow is to the north closer to the storm track.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Does anyone know if MT. Whitney in Cali gets good snows in the winter? I have a friend who just hiked it last week and she said they told her it doesn't snow much there . That's not correct is it?

Relative to the Northern SN, no but it still gets a decent amount of snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

What do they define as Mt Whitney? The area nearby or the mtn? It's obviously elevation dependent, but they get plenty of snow overall. Better snow is to the north closer to the storm track.

She climbed the entire thing. Up in 9 hours, down in 7. She said most folks break it up Into 2-3 days. They did it in 16 hours straight. She said the locals told her the area in general is not that snowy in winter. So I thought maybe due to some type of shadowing, but that really doesn't make sense since its the highest point in the lower 48

[Tropopause_Fold]

I did do that. But I know there's some folks here that are familiar with wx out there, and call me crazy, but since this is a wx board in the doldrums of summer with nothing going on for the next 30 days, I figured I'd ask

and interrupt the great temp talk??!

 

i was out there during july/august of 94 and there was still snow on top of most of those mountains. 

[Tropopause_Fold]

She climbed the entire thing. Up in 9 hours, down in 7. She said most folks break it up Into 2-3 days. They did it in 16 hours straight. She said the locals told her the area in general is not that snowy in winter. So I thought maybe due to some type of shadowing, but that really doesn't make sense since its the highest point in the lower 48

yeah they just don't get quite as much precip down that way as areas up toward tahoe etc

[Typhoon Tip]

Very early but almost ready to bite on the PNA rising, AO falling very low(for this time of year) NAO falling negative as we enter the first week of September, could be reverting back to our August pattern of cool troughiness. Certainly looks like the SE and Midwest is cooler than normal . 

 

I think we are going to have to endure a pretty significant warm anomaly period prior to any such reconstruction of the overall mass fields.  

 

There is a strong teleconnector signal now for a major polerward migration of the westerlies, particularly on this side of the hemisphere.  Seeing many operational model runs really building strong subtropical ridging underneath thus caries a bit more weight than typical extended leads.  

 

It's interesting, ...almost humorous how NCEP seems to either evade discussion, or just maybe they do not find it significant enough to mention when in their extended range outlines.  They didn't discuss the 7 day heat wave when it was becoming alarmingly clear in the middle and extended range of the time, that an extended period of positive departures was en route.  This strikes me as similar.  By the end of the middle range, the ridge eruption is well underway.  Not much mention.  

 

In fact, one less dependable model source, the NAVGEM (or is it "GEMNAV", or "GONAPS"), has +22 to 23C air at 850mb extending from the GL to NE, with even more prominence than it did prior to the WAR wave.   I bring to people's attention that there are Aug 15-30th episodes in past years that made runs at the century mark.  The 00z GFS was pretty amazing with it's heat dome appeal, and had 18+C 850 air rattling around inside of it in it's own right.  

 

I agree with you that September probably slips the other way -- who knows how far.   

[CoastalWx]

She climbed the entire thing. Up in 9 hours, down in 7. She said most folks break it up Into 2-3 days. They did it in 16 hours straight. She said the locals told her the area in general is not that snowy in winter. So I thought maybe due to some type of shadowing, but that really doesn't make sense since its the highest point in the lower 48

 

Yeah like what Phil said, they are usually just south of the big moisture plumes that plow into CA, but they do get quite a bit. The mtn just north of them...Mammoth Mtn gets demolished.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah like what Phil said, they are usually just south of the big moisture plumes that plow into CA, but they do get quite a bit. The mtn just north of them...Mammoth Mtn gets demolished.

So without looking maybe they avg 120 per year?

[CoastalWx]

So without looking maybe they avg 120 per year?

 

Way more than that. You get above 8k and it's really high.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I think we are going to have to endure a pretty significant warm anomaly period prior to any such reconstruction of the overall mass fields.  

 

There is a strong teleconnector signal now for a major polerward migration of the westerlies, particularly on this side of the hemisphere.  Seeing many operational model runs really building strong subtropical ridging underneath thus caries a bit more weight than typical extended leads.  

 

It's interesting, ...almost humorous how NCEP seems to either evade discussion, or just maybe they do not find it significant enough to mention when in their extended range outlines.  They didn't discuss the 7 day heat wave when it was becoming alarmingly clear in the middle and extended range of the time, that an extended period of positive departures was en route.  This strikes me as similar.  By the end of the middle range, the ridge eruption is well underway.  Not much mention.  

 

In fact, one less dependable model source, the NAVGEM (or is it "GEMNAV", or "GONAPS"), has +22 to 23C air at 850mb extending from the GL to NE, with even more prominence than it did prior to the WAR wave.   I bring to people's attention that there are Aug 15-30th episodes in past years that made runs at the century mark.  The 00z GFS was pretty amazing with it's heat dome appeal, and had 18+C 850 air rattling around inside of it in it's own right.  

 

I agree with you that September probably slips the other way -- who knows how far.   

i hear ya. though sort of in 2 different arenas. one would yield records...the other would just be "really warm"

[Baroclinic Zone]

So without looking maybe they avg 120 per year?

I'd say probably closer to 300in.+.  Mammoth Mt is 400" annually.

[Tropopause_Fold]

So without looking maybe they avg 120 per year?

well...are you talking about the top of the mountain at 14K or at the valley floor? there could be a huge difference in annual precip and, obviously, snow. also, the lower down you get, the better the odds that you are below the freezing level during a good chunk of those west coast events and are awaiting fropa for much snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think we are going to have to endure a pretty significant warm anomaly period prior to any such reconstruction of the overall mass fields.

There is a strong teleconnector signal now for a major polerward migration of the westerlies, particularly on this side of the hemisphere. Seeing many operational model runs really building strong subtropical ridging underneath thus caries a bit more weight than typical extended leads.

It's interesting, ...almost humorous how NCEP seems to either evade discussion, or just maybe they do not find it significant enough to mention when in their extended range outlines. They didn't discuss the 7 day heat wave when it was becoming alarmingly clear in the middle and extended range of the time, that an extended period of positive departures was en route. This strikes me as similar. By the end of the middle range, the ridge eruption is well underway. Not much mention.

In fact, one less dependable model source, the NAVGEM (or is it "GEMNAV", or "GONAPS"), has +22 to 23C air at 850mb extending from the GL to NE, with even more prominence than it did prior to the WAR wave. I bring to people's attention that there are Aug 15-30th episodes in past years that made runs at the century mark. The 00z GFS was pretty amazing with it's heat dome appeal, and had 18+C 850 air rattling around inside of it in it's own right.

I agree with you that September probably slips the other way -- who knows how far.

Yeah based on how ensembles and most op guidance sans the op Euro continues to warm as we get closer, you have to wonder if the 2nd half of the month averages as warm as or even a bit warmer than the first 15 days averaged cooler . Pretty major shift about to take hold for an extended time

[powderfreak]

I'd say probably closer to 300in.+.  Mammoth Mt is 400" annually.

 

Agreed... but its highly, highly variable.

 

Mammoth will have like a 200-inch winter followed by a 450" winter, then back to 240" or something.  Its usually all or nothing for them south of Tahoe. 

 

Mammoth even has huge variability just within a winter... like they'll have a 150 inch month, followed up by a 20-inch month. 

 

Here are the past two years snowfall there...like this past winter they got more snow in December alone than they did in Jan-May combined.  Its either all or nothing.  Two winter's ago, they only got 2" the entire month of December, then do 150" this past December.  There's no consistency to it.

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Agreed... but its highly, highly variable.

 

Mammoth will have like a 200-inch winter followed by a 450" winter, then back to 240" or something.  Its usually all or nothing for them south of Tahoe. 

 

Mammoth even has huge variability just within a winter... like they'll have a 150 inch month, followed up by a 20-inch month. 

 

Here are the past two years snowfall there...like this past winter they got more snow in December alone than they did in Jan-May combined.  Its either all or nothing.  Two winter's ago, they only got 2" the entire month of December, then do 150" this past December.  There's no consistency to it.

 

Untitled.png

I'd be curious to see if there is more variability there as opposed to NNE.  They rely a lot on the Pineapple Express for their systems.  Here we can get systems in NNE from different mechanisms.

[CoastalWx]

Agreed... but its highly, highly variable.

 

Mammoth will have like a 200-inch winter followed by a 450" winter, then back to 240" or something.  Its usually all or nothing for them south of Tahoe. 

 

Mammoth even has huge variability just within a winter... like they'll have a 150 inch month, followed up by a 20-inch month. 

 

Here are the past two years snowfall there...like this past winter they got more snow in December alone than they did in Jan-May combined.  Its either all or nothing.  Two winter's ago, they only got 2" the entire month of December, then do 150" this past December.  There's no consistency to it.

 

Untitled.png

 

You should have seen the pics from 2007 there...I believe it was 2007. In any case, it made Stowe look like Myrtle Beach.

[CoastalWx]

I'd be curious to see if there is more variability there as opposed to NNE.  They rely a lot on the Pineapple Express for their systems.  Here we can get systems in NNE from different mechanisms.

 

Big ENSO relationship too.

[CoastalWx]

I must have been looking at 05-06.

 

http://patrol.mammothmountain.com/MMSA-SnowSummary70-Current.htm

[Brian5671]

anyone see any chance of rain next 7 days or so....I saw the cutoff potential day 10 or so.

[Quincy]

anyone see any chance of rain next 7 days or so....I saw the cutoff potential day 10 or so.

12z GFS and CMC both bring in a period of rain from late Monday into Tuesday with a shortwave, but even those model QPF's are not terribly high.

[Damage In Tolland]

anyone see any chance of rain next 7 days or so....I saw the cutoff potential day 10 or so.

Not a drop. Fire up the sprinklers

[CapturedNature]

She climbed the entire thing. Up in 9 hours, down in 7. She said most folks break it up Into 2-3 days. They did it in 16 hours straight. She said the locals told her the area in general is not that snowy in winter. So I thought maybe due to some type of shadowing, but that really doesn't make sense since its the highest point in the lower 48

 

According to this map, the receive about 45" of liquid precip but it's hard to tell because of microclimates on a mesoscale map.  I'd say most of that falls as snow but I think the snow is gone by July and doesn't return until October.  One report I read said that the winters are milder compared to Mt Washington but we know that's about as bad as it can get in the lower 48 on a mountain.

 

It's not uncommon for folks to do Whitney in a day.  It saves on permitting but I think the reason that most people do it in several days is to enjoy the back country.  I know when I was actively climbing the high peaks of each state that there were many that people would just do in a day and I would spend a few days on the mountain just to enjoy the place.  You can miss a lot just walking by it. 

 

Your friend should do the ultra marathon that goes from Bad Water to the summit - lowest point to the highest point.

[grinch1989]

anyone see any chance of rain next 7 days or so....I saw the cutoff potential day 10 or so.

I have my kid's pool and bounce house party planned for saturday the 24th...there's your next rain chance!

[Damage In Tolland]

According to this map, the receive about 45" of liquid precip but it's hard to tell because of microclimates on a mesoscale map. I'd say most of that falls as snow but I think the snow is gone by July and doesn't return until October. One report I read said that the winters are milder compared to Mt Washington but we know that's about as bad as it can get in the lower 48 on a mountain.

It's not uncommon for folks to do Whitney in a day. It saves on permitting but I think the reason that most people do it in several days is to enjoy the back country. I know when I was actively climbing the high peaks of each state that there were many that people would just do in a day and I would spend a few days on the mountain just to enjoy the place. You can miss a lot just walking by it.

Your friend should do the ultra marathon that goes from Bad Water to the summit - lowest point to the highest point.

Yeah I asked her about that. She said the final 13.1 miles at the end of Badwater is all uphill and goes from like 3k to over 8k in that span. Imagine that to finish up an ultra marathon. You have to have such a high threshold for pain. I'm tempted to do a 50 miler at some point but don't know if I ever actually will convince myself to do it

[Brian5671]

I have my kid's pool and bounce house party planned for saturday the 24th...there's your next rain chance!

and I'll be camping at Hammonasett...LOL

[CapturedNature]

Yeah I asked her about that. She said the final 13.1 miles at the end of Badwater is all uphill and goes from like 3k to over 8k in that span. Imagine that to finish up an ultra marathon. You have to have such a high threshold for pain. I'm tempted to do a 50 miler at some point but don't know if I ever actually will convince myself to do it

 

Long distance running (or any kind of running for that matter) has never been of interest to me but whatever people want to do, that's fine with me.  I've jokingly said that if I see someone with a smile on their face or happy while jogging, I'll take up running.  In the mean time, I'll stick with walking.

 

Have you thought about an Ironman?

 

http://www.ironman.com/triathlon/events/americas/ironman/lake-placid/

[Damage In Tolland]

Long distance running (or any kind of running for that matter) has never been of interest to me but whatever people want to do, that's fine with me. I've jokingly said that if I see someone with a smile on their face or happy while jogging, I'll take up running. In the mean time, I'll stick with walking.

Have you thought about an Ironman?

http://www.ironman.com/triathlon/events/americas/ironman/lake-placid/

Drive the hills of Tolland at 5:00am any morning and you' ll see a smiling weenie running along . Ill even wave