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2nd Half of August WX Discussion


Quincy

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Maybe if I said the word "weenie",  as opposed to simply typing it, then they'd keep it?

 

Anyway, the return of the humidity not withstanding, tangible signs of the season changing are upon us.....namely, the earlier sunsets/decreasing length of day, and increasing in the frequency of cooler nights.

 

Thank god.

Definitely seeing hints of fall color in the hills here.

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Ryan's boss agrees on the Mehness of a two day mild up and these highs are for the valley, 95% of us will not see 90 while we get to work but we all get to enjoy the 70s this weekend with COC conditions.

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Woops

 

 

Mid-summer heat returns to New England & the Northeast for 3 days, starting today. Forecast video: http://mnoy.es/16BzHlc 

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Nice to get a summer feel and vibe back to the board..was kind of a sad, miserable place the last few weeks. With the heat and dews this week folks are in good moods again,  sort of like everyone gets with an impending snowstorm in winter

i haven't turned on my a/c in at least a couple weeks. that puts me in a good mood

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Actualy everyone has been in great moods, wallets heavier, breathing easier, getting lots of work done, fresh air in the house, smiles at the beaches and pools, less bugs.

People are in great moods with cooler air for sure. Windows open, fresh air, and cool nights all FTW. This mild up last a few days and then back to Kevin's COC weather that he loves.

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Ironically for such an advertised mild up, one of the best cool shots yet comes in Saturday with almost perfect delivery of cool air.

I do think it gets wetter in the 11-15 day where fronts hang up near or just south of us amid troughing.

I ain't buying any calls for rain right now...been drier than Arizona here the last 2 months overall....

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I ain't buying any calls for rain right now...been drier than Arizona here the last 2 months overall....

It's definitely going to change later next week. Of course summer rains aren't always widespread, but I think rain chances will increase. My last rain was 2 Fridays ago when I had about 2.5".

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We have a birch tree (young one) shedding leaves in our backyard

Must be stressed by the incoming heat wave

 

Assuming it's a white birch, that's just what they do.  The clump next to our driveway began littering about August 1, shedding leaves that are still mostly summer-green -   right on the usual timetable.  By the time those trees turn color, 2/3 of the leaves will be on the ground.

 

Today will likely break my 29-day run of sub-80 highs; it's already ended a streak (8 of 9 days) of sub-50 lows.  Yesterday's 78/48 was -0.5 compared to my 15-yr avg, making 23 in a row below avg, and that run ends today as well.

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Euro backed off on its heat next week...looks more like just getting fringed like we are seeing this week.

 

The ensembles have been immovable with the orientation of the heights .. quite persistent, while the operational version has been wavering up and down in warm -vs- cooler appeals relative to, for 3 or more days worth of runs re next week.  

 

I'm tending to side that way.  I am seeing the Euro spontaneously engendering small jetlets in the flow up over S Canada, near the apex of the ridge, and then subsequently evolving them into actual synoptic features with enough force to usurp the heights lower on this most recent oper. run.   Not sure if these are convectively born or not, but the ensemble mean doesn't have them, thus, it's heights are more consistent.  That could obviously be an artifact of smoothing among the numbers/members, duh -- but the Euro not really having a origin for it's meso-beta scaled waves that it's producing doesn't lend confidence for me, just the same.  

 

Having said that, it doesn't appear ensemble mean wants to bring the real heat dome in; still looks seasonally above average for the time being.  

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