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2nd Half of August WX Discussion


Quincy

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We seem to be well represented in the cooler spots in the forum is all I was suggesting.  Without researching much I figured the rest of low elevation interior NE had plenty of low 80's too.  After reading here and not really watching the actual numbers this month I was surprised that KCON had so many 80+ days.

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TORCH!!!!

attachicon.gifMonthTDeptNRCC.png

 

MBY is right at the south end of that -3 to -4 blob in W.Maine. Have not seen 80 since 7/20, high for August is 77 on the 1st, then 75 on the 7th. During the 28 days ending yesterday, I've had one above-avg day, 7/27, though 8/9 was just 0.2 below my avg. Farmington COOP shows 80.1 for August 1st, but their 7 AM TOBS means that it occurred on 7/31.

 

Edit:

So now the few hilltown posters represent a large chuck of SNE? Ok then. You win

 

PF's post stated "large interior section of New England", not SNE.  FTW 

 

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The avg high in summer in the hills is probably something like 82-83/63-64

 

It depends what hills and what elevation you are talking. The average high for ORH in the summer ranges from 71F in early June to a max of 80F in late July.

 

Hill towns below 600 or 700 feet and south of here probably reach averages in the 82-83F range.

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FWIW, I posted in the other thread that my average has been 81/59.  It's currently 78/56 but I guess you could argue that my lows are a couple of degrees warmer than the hill tops but I don't know many people that live on a hill top.

You mean your lows are cooler than most hill folks. You always are one of the cooler readings in the "hills" for lows

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This time of year is feast or famine. Going 3 weeks plus without rain really isn't noteworthy in August or September. 

yeah without tropical input, it can be quite dry and boring.   We've had less than 4 inches of rain here since the big June burst ended...most grass is burnt out.

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Huh, just looked a little more closely... that's one impressive ridge/heat signal on the operational Euro.  

 

D8, 9 and 10 all feature a lee-side thermal trough from coastal Maine to the interior Del Marva.    That's only there because the model has to compensate for a lot of rising air, which synoptically is caused by feeding strong heating potential into the region.  

 

Similar to the day before yesterday's 12z run, the operational is bit more bullish with the heat dome into the area than the ensembles, which keep the entire synoptic structure far enough SW to suggest more NW'er flow and disruptions to heating potential.  The mean could bring either very warm air on a NW trajectory, an MCS, ..denting fronts; where the operational just looks hot.  

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To me, this is an interesting discussion by James at NCEP, because he outlines some of the same concerns I have about the "sharpness" of the flow on the NE side of the ridge node, as seemed exaggerated to some degree by the some of these recent runs.  ...Mind you, he is not taking the 12z run(s) into consideration, but to then see the ECM turn out a much more progressive open-wave appeal in the NW Atlantic compared to its 00z run, could be telling.  I'd also assert this isn't the first time the Euro has looked this way ...since last January for that matter.   

 

THE SECOND LARGEST AREA OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NEARLY A DEEP OUTLIER BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WITH A TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL SOURCE REGION FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WITH THE
ECMWF NEARLY OUT OF PHASE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...THE
ECMWF IS ABANDONED ACROSS THIS REGION FROM DAY 5/SATURDAY ONWARD.

AS ALTERNATIVES...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IS
SLIGHTLY MORE PREFERRED THAN THE AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE...BUT WITH ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. ONE REASON IS FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE INFLUENCES...
PARTICULARLY CONVECTION...TO MODULATE THE WAVELENGTH AND AMPLITUDE
OF THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHICH COULD AFFECT FUTURE
FRONTAL POSITIONS. AS A FIRST GUESS...HAVE PRESERVED
CONTINUITY...WHICH EMPHASIZES 60 PERCENT OF THE LAST 2 ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND 40 PERCENT OF THE 18Z GEFS MEAN. THE 00-06Z
GEFS MEANS WERE NOT USED BECAUSE THEY MIRROR THEIR DETERMINISTIC
MEMBERS BY AMPLIFYING A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IN A WAY THAT APPEARS TO HAVE
LIMITED PREDICTABILITY...RESULTING IN STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.

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little far out there yet but Saturday could be rather chilly....especially relative to tue-thur which will be quite warm. maybe the interior/CT/CT Valley regions can warm decently but E MA up into NNE could be in for a pretty cool day / abrupt change.

that set-up is a good way to drill cool air into new england.

nice Chamber of Commerce weekend
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Maybe if I said the word "weenie",  as opposed to simply typing it, then they'd keep it?

 

Anyway, the return of the humidity not withstanding, tangible signs of the season changing are upon us.....namely, the earlier sunsets/decreasing length of day, and increasing in the frequency of cooler nights.

 

Thank god.

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