2nd Half of August WX Discussion

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The pike and 84 make pretty good, well known dividing lines. I will say that the dividing line is more up to US 44 in eastern CT to I-395 but that makes it harder to describe.

I used to be like that with weather maps using the MA/CT border as a dividing line as if weather would stop at the border. I remember one time in one of my synoptic met classes that a classmate drew a stationary front on one of the maps and changed the temps in CT to make them appear warmer which I knew wasn't the case so when it was my time to give my discussion, I specifically didn't say anything about it because I knew it was fake but my professor called me out and asked about it. When I said that I thought the front didn't exist, he asked me about the temperatures which I had to read off the map and they justified a warm front. I lost points and everyone just started laughing because they knew what happened. It doesn't bother me any more but you still see it every once and a while.

It is pretty amazing/strange how well The Pike, Rt 2 and I-495 work as defining lines for winter wx forecasting.

[grinch1989]

It is pretty amazing/strange how well The Pike, Rt 2 and I-495 work as defining lines for winter wx forecasting.

Just like "north of the merritt"

[CapturedNature]

The pike is a great divider during snowy SWFEs and sometimes in icing events....in icing events "outside 495 and N of the pike" is very common (ala 12/11/08, 2/28/11 and 12/17/12)

 

Kevin hates it since he lives south of it, but there's a reason his area gets way less snow in those SWFE type winters and hsi icing climo is less than places like ORH hills/Monads. Rt 2 in N central MA is another divider sometimes, which will screw me personally, but there's a reason we use it. It's a good demarkation of changing wetaher.

 

Yeah, and it's a good way of decimating info to the general public.  It's a landmark and a line that they know and it's usually very near to where a boundary will be, north or south.

[CapturedNature]

Just like "north of the merritt"

 

Other regions must use those as well.  I remember in VT they would talk about the spine of the greens which is a natural barrier.  I know out west they talk about mountains like that, especially in the Cascades.

[CoastalWx]

I found scooter for you...

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[powderfreak]

Have you ever seen a brochure with pictures taken on hazy, humid days? Now that would be a way to drive people away from your community!

We especially like the humid hazy photos that are out of focus with a few black flies on the lens to really turn it into a stunning shot.

I wish Blizz would spend a day with me at 4kft in July when it's 70F, while down in the valley it's 90F....and take note of people's reactions to it being colder when they get off the lift or out of their cars. Not one person ever says "I want to go back down to the heat and humidity"...all the responses are "wow this feels amazing, we need to stay up here all day long" type of stuff.

[CoastalWx]

Kevin, few people like 95/75 in New England. There is a reason why our summers are the best. Go to Orlando if you like that awful weather. You just want extremes, but unfortunately for you our summers don't work like that. Taste the 70s next weekend.....taste it.

[Typhoon Tip]

Like I said yesterday ... seasonally warm.  

 

Funny that some are extending effort to downplay any warm up next week, when there may very well be a 90 to 91 over 62 type low-end heat wave this week.  Hello.  Granted it is close, and many will miss on the 88 side of things, but MAV and MET now have 90 to 91 for gentle west wind sites like FIT/BED/LWM/PVD, for Tue and Wed, with no synoptic reasoning to cool them back until Friday.  These machine numbers have been gaining a tick a day.  

[powderfreak]

Other regions must use those as well. I remember in VT they would talk about the spine of the greens which is a natural barrier. I know out west they talk about mountains like that, especially in the Cascades.

The Spine of the Greens is such a huge player in weather around here that its an obvious barrier to use...but we also use highways and roads for demarcation. Such as the Greens north of I-89 where the upslope is usually maximized and you get into the peaks that average over 300". We often reference 89 and RT 4 (Killington/Rutland area) to break up the Greens when describing snowfall for the ski areas.

[CoastalWx]

Like I said yesterday ... seasonally warm.

Funny that some are extending effort to downplay any warm up next week, when there may very well be a 90 to 91 over 62 type low-end heat wave this week. Hello. Granted it is close, and many will miss on the 88 side of things, but MAV and MET now have 90 to 91 for gentle west wind sites like FIT/BED/LWM/PVD, for Tue and Wed, with no synoptic reasoning to cool them back until Friday. These machine numbers have been gaining a tick a day.

We all said it will be warm with a couple of days tickling 90 in favors torch spots. But, GFS advertises best cool shot yet this weekend.

[powderfreak]

Like I said yesterday ... seasonally warm.

Funny that some are extending effort to downplay any warm up next week, when there may very well be a 90 to 91 over 62 type low-end heat wave this week. Hello. Granted it is close, and many will miss on the 88 side of things, but MAV and MET now have 90 to 91 for gentle west wind sites like FIT/BED/LWM/PVD, for Tue and Wed, with no synoptic reasoning to cool them back until Friday. These machine numbers have been gaining a tick a day.

I haven't really heard anyone downplay this week...it's been looking like you said, seasonably warm. Mid 80s for most above 500ft and in wooded areas, with some spot low 90s in the torch spots near sea level. A nice, warm summer week but nothing overly noteworthy for August. We knew it had to come...can't do wall to wall 70s in August.

Most of the discussion though is already on to the cool down next weekend...but that's more a function of Blizz saying no 70s till mid September.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensembles did a lot better than the OP on this week's warmup. OP had some runs that showed like +18 to +21 850 temps at the end of last week while the ensembles kept it generally in the +16 to +18 range.

[Damage In Tolland]

Kevin, few people like 95/75 in New England. There is a reason why our summers are the best. Go to Orlando if you like that awful weather. You just want extremes, but unfortunately for you our summers don't work like that. Taste the 70s next weekend.....taste it.

Who said that's how our summers here are? We fully understand that. We live in the northern tier. We got spoiled by 30+ days of it and wanted more fully realizing it was a once in a lifetime kind of thing. That doesn't make us stop wanting some more summer in summer

[Typhoon Tip]

I haven't really heard anyone downplay this week...it's been looking like you said, seasonably warm. Mid 80s for most above 500ft and in wooded areas, with some spot low 90s in the torch spots near sea level. A nice, warm summer week but nothing overly noteworthy for August. We knew it had to come...can't do wall to wall 70s in August.

Most of the discussion though is already on to the cool down next weekend...but that's more a function of Blizz saying no 70s till mid September.

 

 

I said "downplay next week," not this week.   Lack of acknowledgement about this week:  I wasn't speaking to our posters;  I thought I saw some excerpts from Henry and the like stating "No heat waves", re next week.  and "..Not fearing" heat for then.   

 

It's more a rhetorical question that amounts to, 'What's the preoccupation about next week when we have a heat wave [potential] straight away?'     

 

Scott, most recent MAV and MET numbers are more than "a couple of days tickling 90 at favored torch" -- at least the way that sounds.  90 to 91 at four sites with population is slightly more weighty than that.    We'll see how it pans out..

[CoastalWx]

I said "downplay next week," not this week. Lack of acknowledgement about this week: I wasn't speaking to our posters; I thought I saw some excerpts from Henry and the like stating "No heat waves", re next week. and "..Not fearing" heat for then.

It's more a rhetorical question that amounts to, 'What's the preoccupation about next week when we have a heat wave [potential] straight away?'

Scott, most recent MAV and MET numbers are more than "a couple of days tickling 90 at favored torch" -- at least the way that sounds. 90 to 91 at four sites with population is slightly more weighty than that. We'll see how it pans out..

Well the torch spots we know like BDL, ASH etc. Maybe BOS if no seabreeze.

[Damage In Tolland]

I said "downplay next week," not this week. Lack of acknowledgement about this week: I wasn't speaking to our posters; I thought I saw some excerpts from Henry and the like stating "No heat waves", re next week. and "..Not fearing" heat for then.

It's more a rhetorical question that amounts to, 'What's the preoccupation about next week when we have a heat wave [potential] straight away?'

Scott, most recent MAV and MET numbers are more than "a couple of days tickling 90 at favored torch" -- at least the way that sounds. 90 to 91 at four sites with population is slightly more weighty than that. We'll see how it pans out..

Because most folks here don't like summer wx. They want to talk About cold and bundling up in August rather than enjoying a season in season

[CoastalWx]

Because most folks here don't like summer wx. They want to talk About cold and bundling up in August rather than enjoying a season in season

How much of it have you enjoyed away from

Your A/C'd house?

[Tropopause_Fold]

i think it'll be tough to verify a heat wave this week at more than a couple of (un)lucky spots. MOS looks too high to me tomorrow. 

[Damage In Tolland]

How much of it have you enjoyed away from

Your A/C'd house?

Thats the magic. I can cool off when sweaty in Ac . Just like you can warm up in a heated home when cold

[powderfreak]

Euro ensembles did a lot better than the OP on this week's warmup. OP had some runs that showed like +18 to +21 850 temps at the end of last week while the ensembles kept it generally in the +16 to +18 range.

Yeah, as usual the ensemble mean was the way to go. This winter may be interesting as the ECM has been over-amplifying a lot in the long range, but I guess models are prone to that (ahem, GGEM). Doesn't matter ridge or trough, it seems past day 5 or 7, the heights go crazy.

[ORH_wxman]

 

Yeah, as usual the ensemble mean was the way to go. This winter may be interesting as the ECM has been over-amplifying a lot in the long range, but I guess models are prone to that (ahem, GGEM). Doesn't matter ridge or trough, it seems past day 5 or 7, the heights go crazy.

 

We've always warned people of the Euro OP beyond D6 or so in the winter. Those 192 hour blizzards are fun to look at, but they don't mean much. I think as the data has become easier and easier to access online, people have started following those D8-9 threats and taking them way more seriously than they should.

If the ensemble mean has a strong signal at D7-8, then I'll get curious and start analyzing the pattern a little closer, but really outside of that, its just model noise when the OP blows up blizzards past D7.

[Bostonseminole]

Who said that's how our summers here are? We fully understand that. We live in the northern tier. I got spoiled by 30+ days of it and wanted more fully realizing it was a once in a lifetime kind of thing. That doesn't make me stop wanting some more summer in summer

 

fixed

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, as usual the ensemble mean was the way to go. This winter may be interesting as the ECM has been over-amplifying a lot in the long range, but I guess models are prone to that (ahem, GGEM). Doesn't matter ridge or trough, it seems past day 5 or 7, the heights go crazy.

There is a reason why a suite of guidance with 50 perturbed members to help reproduce variability in the atmosphere scores better than its own

Operational run. Can't stress enough to take those post 120 hr op runs with caution.

[Tropopause_Fold]

i really thought we were done with canadian flow for an extended period starting this week as even the ensembles were flattening the flow across the conus...but now consenus seems to be for a big ridge over the nation's heartland with a general return of NW flow aloft over the NE. 

[free_man]

Looks Sept. '54-like.

[ice1972]

i really thought we were done with canadian flow for an extended period starting this week as even the ensembles were flattening the flow across the conus...but now consenus seems to be for a big ridge over the nation's heartland with a general return of NW flow aloft over the NE.

Refreshing.....ahhhhhh....

[ORH_wxman]

i really thought we were done with canadian flow for an extended period starting this week as even the ensembles were flattening the flow across the conus...but now consenus seems to be for a big ridge over the nation's heartland with a general return of NW flow aloft over the NE. 

 

 

That central ridge buckled more as we got closer and it snuck us into the cooler air for this coming weekend. I think after that passes though, we'll have another chance at heat, but it looks like the bulk is still trying to hold SW of us, but it should be warmer regardless.

 

We'll have to see how that evolves because beyodn that, ensembles look like they may be trying to retrograde the central ridge westward into the Rockies which would put us in NW flow yet again...so there may be only a window of like 4-6 days to get a piece of a heat dome in here.

[tamarack]

 

The Spine of the Greens is such a huge player in weather around here that its an obvious barrier to use...but we also use highways and roads for demarcation. Such as the Greens north of I-89 where the upslope is usually maximized and you get into the peaks that average over 300". We often reference 89 and RT 4 (Killington/Rutland area) to break up the Greens when describing snowfall for the ski areas.

PWM-area forecasters will sometimes use the 'Pike/I-295 as the potential coastal front location, or for max inland penetration. Milder situations, Route 1 is noted. Beyond that, it's generally just the coast-inland-mountains divisions.

[CoastalWx]

i really thought we were done with canadian flow for an extended period starting this week as even the ensembles were flattening the flow across the conus...but now consenus seems to be for a big ridge over the nation's heartland with a general return of NW flow aloft over the NE.

Yeah that sort of snuck in last week on the euro op iirc. I did mention we may be susceptible to highs nosing in from the north with that split flow that was modeled....but nothing like that. No complaints here though.

[joey2002]

You may not have 70's again until mid Sept..You'll tickle 80 today

 

August 19th and we still haven't hit 80 here this month...