2nd Half of August WX Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

It's just how these weather boards have always been...doesn't matter if its an old list-serve, Wright-Weather BB, EasternUSWX or AmericanWX forums, winter was always the main reason for those discussion boards.

East coast weather weenies love their snowstorms.

Even an organized area of snow showers will have more analytical discussion than most summer weather around here... folks spending days looking at even the NOGAPS and every WRF run along the east coast, plus SREFS (which we use so much in the winter but never mention in the summer) for winter weather events. But winter weather is just more exciting to me, and I think the widespread nature of it makes it feel like everyone can get in on the action. I mean look at Wiz, he spends all this time analyzing and then gets angry when he doesn't see anything...who wants that?

 

 

The thing is...New England's geography is such that we often have a better chance to score an "over-achiever" in a clipper or windex style event than we do in a severe wx setup. We stick out into the Atlantic ocean which is an advantage in winter/cold season setups and a distinct disadvantage in severe wx setups.

 

Its more common for us to score a surprise 3-6" event out of a blooming clipper that everyone expect 1-3" from versus getting ripped with a bunch of supercells in a "see text" day. The lower plains are like we are in the winter during severe season...they have so many geographical advantages that we don't in severe season so they'll get TORs on "see text" days whereas we rarely do outside of the low-level F0/F1 spinner types.

 

In winter, its the opposite, our geography allows us to have more chances for a "surprise" larger event.

[CoastalWx]

The thing is...New England's geography is such that we often have a better chance to score an "over-achiever" in a clipper or windex style event than we do in a severe wx setup. We stick out into the Atlantic ocean which is an advantage in winter/cold season setups and a distinct disadvantage in severe wx setups.

Its more common for us to score a surprise 3-6" event out of a blooming clipper that everyone expect 1-3" from versus getting ripped with a bunch of supercells in a "see text" day. The lower plains are like we are in the winter during severe season...they have so many geographical advantages that we don't in severe season so they'll get TORs on "see text" days whereas we rarely do outside of the low-level F0/F1 spinner types.

In winter, its the opposite, our geography allows us to have more chances for a "surprise" larger event.

Yep, bingo.

[joey2002]

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
329 PM AKDT SUN AUG 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM BARROW TO KODIAK ISLAND DRIFTING EAST
AFTER TUE TO THE CANADA BORDER 4AM THU. WEAK LOW NEAR NORTHWAY
DRIFTING EAST INTO CANADA EARLY TUE. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
CHUKCHI SEA MOVING EAST AND DEVELOPING A LOW OVER WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE MON NIGHT. THIS LOW MOVING TO 150 MILES NORTHWEST OF
FAIRBANKS 4PM TUE AND TO 120 MILES NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS 4PM WED.

SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE LOW NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND MOVING EAST
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATING OVER THE MACKENZIE DELTA MON AM. OCCLUSION
FROM EAGLE TO PAXSON STATIONARY THROUGH 4AM MON THEN DRIFTING
SLOWLY EAST AND OUT OF AREA BY 10 PM MON. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS ARCTIC OCEAN ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF COAST DRIFTING SOUTH
TO LIE FROM WAINWRIGHT TO JUST NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND 4PM TUE. 998
MB LOW NEAR THE BERING STRAIT MOVING TO EMMONAK AT 4AM MON AND TO
ANIAK 4PM TUE AND CONTINUING SOUTHEAST...THOUGH SOME ENERGY WILL
TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. WEAK ARCTIC FRONT FROM INUVIK CANADA TO BETTLES TO
BETHEL TO NOME MOVING TO FORT YUKON TO FAIRBANKS TO DENALI PARK TO
MCGRATH TO NOME 4PM TUE AND STRENGTHENING.

MODELS...AGREE QUITE CLOSELY ON UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF
INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT DO DIVERGE ON TRACK AFTER TUE
WITH THE GFS MOVING IT INTO CANADA WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF HOLD IT
BACK SOME. PREFER THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AT THIS TIME SO KEEPING
THINGS COOLER ON WED OVER EASTERN INTERIOR THAN GFS WOULD SUGGEST.

NORTH SLOPE...SOME COOLING OVER TIME DRIVEN BY LARGE LOW NEAR POLE
DRIFTING SOUTH. PRECIP FROM WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WEST
COAST AND INTERIOR WILL DEVELOP SOME RAIN MAINLY EASTERN HALF
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW ALONG THE COAST OR GO TO ALL
SNOW MON NIGHT IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. SNOW AMOUNTS IN
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

[moneypitmike]

Hope they are both doing well. Loving merrimack so far. Been here for a couple days im camp. Off campus apartment. I just love being back in New England, it feels so good. Getting to see my family today is huge too for an hour or so.

 

That's great to hear.  I'm not sure where Em's apartment is, but I guess I'll find out on Tuesday.  Had you met Erin before?  She's excited to be starting this week.  I'm excited to see they're opening against Alabama on the 31st!  Tough opener.

 

No and we never should had one. It was just speculation that many worried about..and in the end proved to be a short term problem

 

I can't help but laugh at this post.....who is this "many"?

 

62.9/60

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Last night in Falmouth.  What a delightful week of (mostly) dry summer days and cool evenings on Buzzards Bay.  Hopefully I'm not too shocked by the upper 80's in W. MA this week. lol

 

Here are a few shots from last night's sunset at The Knob in Sippewissett:

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

Last night in Falmouth. What a delightful week of (mostly) dry summer days and cool evenings on Buzzards Bay. Hopefully I'm not too shocked by the upper 80's in W. MA this week. lol

Here are a few shots from last night's sunset at The Knob in Sippewissett:

knob1.jpg

knob2.jpg

nice pictures

[moneypitmike]

Last night in Falmouth.  What a delightful week of (mostly) dry summer days and cool evenings on Buzzards Bay.  Hopefully I'm not too shocked by the upper 80's in W. MA this week. lol

 

Here are a few shots from last night's sunset at The Knob in Sippewissett:

 

 

 

knob1.jpg

 

 

 

knob2.jpg

 

Nice, Chris.

[dendrite]

Nice cold front for Friday on last night's euro. The front pushes enough to our SW that we get another CoC weekend out of it. Looks like we just have to deal with mostly mid-upper 80s Tue-Thu with the normal torch sports near 90F...not too bad with ASOS dews in the 60s.

[CapturedNature]

...

 

I can't help but laugh at this post.....who is this "many"?

 

62.9/60

 

lol, me too.  If I recall, it was more the opposite that no one really was concerned and their were daily posts of articles, tweets and other statements about how dry it was in order to convince the masses that we were in the midst of the drought of the century.

 

Meanwhile, looks like another day with a high in the 70s and low in the 50s for me.

[moneypitmike]

Congrats--temps are progged for low 80's here today.  Assuming that takes place, my sub-80 string ends after day 27.  Brutal, incessant heat this summer.

 

58.0/56

[Damage In Tolland]

lol, me too.  If I recall, it was more the opposite that no one really was concerned and their were daily posts of articles, tweets and other statements about how dry it was in order to convince the masses that we were in the midst of the drought of the century.

 

Meanwhile, looks like another day with a high in the 70s and low in the 50s for me.

You may not have 70's again until mid Sept..You'll tickle 80 today

[CoastalWx]

You may not have 70's again until mid Sept..You'll tickle 80 today

Or next weekend.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Looks warm the next 4 days.  May hit 90F a couple days.

[Bostonseminole]

Feels like a warm week out, luckily after this week we go back to mild summer weather.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Friday high in the 70s here

[powderfreak]

lol, me too. If I recall, it was more the opposite that no one really was concerned and their were daily posts of articles, tweets and other statements about how dry it was in order to convince the masses that we were in the midst of the drought of the century.

Meanwhile, looks like another day with a high in the 70s and low in the 50s for me.

That drought stuff will go down as the biggest fail ever on this board. LL and Blizz were non-stop on that drought stuff, posting tweets, drought indices, 384 hour precip totals, etc.

That turned out to be one of the wettest 3 month periods in history after that April hype of fires burning uncontrollably by July.

Just epic fail.

[powderfreak]

Friday high in the 70s here

Not until September dammit!

Oh wait. 2-3 days in the 80s then back to the 70s.

Friday

Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 70s.

Friday Night

Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.

Saturday through Sunday

Clear. Highs in the mid 70s. Lows in the lower 50s.

[Damage In Tolland]

Or next weekend.

Not seeing it

[powderfreak]

Nice cold front for Friday on last night's euro. The front pushes enough to our SW that we get another CoC weekend out of it. Looks like we just have to deal with mostly mid-upper 80s Tue-Thu with the normal torch sports near 90F...not too bad with ASOS dews in the 60s.

AFD... Same thing as dendrite said. Couple warm days so Blizz can remember what summer feels like for 48 hours, then back to beautiful late-summer/early fall weather with good radiational cooling at night and highs in the 70s.

"High temperatures remain warm with highs in the middle 80s Thursday in advance of the front...and falling back closer to seasonal levels Friday with highs in the middle-upper 70s. Strong surface ridge builds into the region for Sat-sun time period with dry weather anticipated. Stayed near mex-MOS numbers with highs in the middle 70s and lows in the low-middle 50s. With good radiational cooling...may see some lows in the upper 40s for the normally cooler spots"

[CapturedNature]

You may not have 70's again until mid Sept..You'll tickle 80 today

 

We'll see...it's kind of like lows in the 40s for you.  I think I'll tickle the upper 70s today and reach the upper 50s tonight.  Tomorrow through Thursday should feature highs in the 80s for us in the hills and most spots in the valley but a few spots will tickle 90.

[CoastalWx]

Not seeing it

Seeing is believing.

[powderfreak]

Not seeing it

Shocking.

So you think you're backyard doesn't see a high in the 70s until mid-September? Is that what I read?

[CapturedNature]

Shocking.

So you think you're backyard doesn't see a high in the 70s until mid-September? Is that what I read?

 

I don't like to speak for others, but I think he's stated that is only in the valley where people live.  Nobody lives out here in the hills of CT, lol.

[dendrite]

Seeing is believing.

Warm d10 euro progs verify better than d5 cool ones.

[powderfreak]

I don't like to speak for others, but I think he's stated that is only in the valley where people live. Nobody lives out here in the hills of CT, lol.

He said you won't see a high in the 70s until mid September so I assume he isn't just talking about BDL. It's so funny how the focus is on BDL for high temps (but not for dews) and then at night focus is on how warm the hilltop stays on radiational cooling nights. It's confusing to know exactly what lines are being drawn, with the focus shifting around to the warmest locations at any given point in a day.

[CapturedNature]

He said you won't see a high in the 70s until mid September so I assume he isn't just talking about BDL. It's so funny how the focus is on BDL for high temps (but not for dews) and then at night focus is on how warm the hilltop stays on radiational cooling nights. It's confusing to know exactly what lines are being drawn, with the focus shifting around to the warmest locations at any given point in a day.

 

lol - whatever supports the desired conditions.  The most important thing to remember is it's all about response.  I think some posters post outlandish things to elicit a response. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Warm d10 euro progs verify better than d5 cool ones.

Even more so with warm d10 rain storms vs cold d5 snowstorms. lol

[mob1]

Warm d10 euro progs verify better than d5 cool ones.

Also the Euro doesn't take into account that the fumes from planes heats his extreme elevation more than the rest of SNE (except for the winter because then the fumes turn into liquid nitrogen effectively cooling his area)

[CapturedNature]

Also the Euro doesn't take into account that the fumes from planes heats his extreme elevation more than the rest of SNE (except for the winter because then the fumes turn into liquid nitrogen effectively cooling his area)

 

There's also blue ice and we are right between Boston, New York City, Hartford and Providence so there is a fair amount of air traffic.  I think it's one of the reason that makes the east slopes of the Berkshires and the NE Hills of CT special places.

[mob1]

There's also blue ice and we are right between Boston, New York City, Hartford and Providence so there is a fair amount of air traffic. I think it's one of the reason that makes the east slopes of the Berkshires and the NE Hills of CT special places.

Lol, we're really piling it on (although I hope it's taken in good nature) I wish we'd get something exciting soon so we can all lay off of Kevin and enjoy some Tim Kelley offsprings.