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2nd Half of August WX Discussion


Quincy

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I figure it's about time to start a new thread since we're almost halfway through the month.

 

It looks like we're on track for some cool nights and near-seasonable days as we move into the Wednesday 14th through Saturday 17th time-frame this week.

 

Beyond that, there are some signs that we could shift into a more summer-like pattern with a period of warmer temperatures and higher dews.

 

Here's the Day 8-10 mean 500mb heights/anomalies from the 00z operational Euro/GFS...

post-533-0-90296000-1376328244_thumb.gif

 

Also, the Day 6-10 Euro mean showed height anomalies of 80+dm across southeastern Canada.

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So we basically go from this,

 

 

post-33-0-63809800-1376431160_thumb.gif

 

 

 

 

To this...a more zonal flow of warmer air with a possibly split flow look of lower heights to the south, especially on the ECMWF ensembles with slightly anomalously low heights. What that means is high pressure overhead or just south. Probably warm to muggy at times during this period with maybe seabreezes on the coast. Not a hot pattern, but warm and potentially muggy.

 

 

 

Towards the end, you can see that heights are still above normal, but we start seeing some troughing over the northeast. The weeklies try to establish some ridging again in September, so the chance is there for warmer than normal Sept. We'll see.

 

 

post-33-0-51036400-1376431187_thumb.gif

 

 

 

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12Z OP Euro has us digging out starting Monday to give us some AOAs through the end of the month. GFS looking similar as well. I'll take that.

 

Overall flow has a bit of an MCS look to it... with westerly mid level flow over the top of a heat dome (latitude), and SW at the surface.  Could focus a nocturnal inflow channel or two should something get going in a positive geostrophic flow regime like that.  

 

I was getting my hair cut the other day, and now my neighbor says the same thing, that they feel Fall was coming in too early.  Ha -- interesting. That's the perception; autumn here.   

 

Not sure how warmly departed it will get, but I can assure people, there is plenty of time to get into triple -H weather again. 

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Mid next week looks like our best chance to break into the HHH pattern again. Not saying it's going to happen right then but the setup is good enough with SW winds. Height anomalies and all are pointing in the right direction but I don't see any "torches" left. I'll be lucky to see 90F again this year imho.

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what do you make of the cutoff

I think as this trough lifts out and we get a more zonal flow across Canada, the threat for a cutoff of sorts is there.  You already have the riding out West and with the Atlantic ridge looking to come back any s/w may get pinched off.  Whether or not that leads to anyhting meaningful for us remains to be see but I could see areas of the SE getting a pretty good dousing of rain.  Bit of a tropical connection down there with that convection coming into the Gulf.

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I think as this trough lifts out and we get a more zonal flow across Canada, the threat for a cutoff of sorts is there. You already have the riding out West and with the Atlantic ridge looking to come back any s/w may get pinched off. Whether or not that leads to anyhting meaningful for us remains to be see but I could see areas of the SE getting a pretty good dousing of rain. Bit of a tropical connection down there with that convection coming into the Gulf.

certainly a high qpf signal for the SE. Euro implies it drifts NE just off the coast. Of course la la land.
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Very early but almost ready to bite on the PNA rising, AO falling very low(for this time of year) NAO falling negative as we enter the first week of September, could be reverting back to our August pattern of cool troughiness. Certainly looks like the SE and Midwest is cooler than normal . 

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Very early but almost ready to bite on the PNA rising, AO falling very low(for this time of year) NAO falling negative as we enter the first week of September, could be reverting back to our August pattern of cool troughiness. Certainly looks like the SE and Midwest is cooler than normal . 

 

I hope Blizz lol's this.... when he does that to you, that discussion seems to come to fruition haha.

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