Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Tuesday, August 13th, 2013 severe threat


weatherwiz

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 108
  • Created
  • Last Reply

This season was pretty bad in ern areas, but I think SNE as a whole. Limited reports of severe and large hail...really only that one in Windham NH last week.

I have to agree. CT has had 4 tornadoes this year though which is certainly pretty significant, whether they were weak or not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have to agree. CT has had 4 tornadoes this year though which is certainly pretty significant, whether they were weak or not.

 

Yeah that one day really helped out, but it's been the tale of two regimes. June was cool. July was capped like a mofo. August has gone back to being cooler....we really haven't been in the battle ground for a sustained period of time. That has been further SW where the flooding is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah that one day really helped out, but it's been the tale of two regimes. June was cool. July was capped like a mofo. August has gone back to being cooler....we really haven't been in the battle ground for a sustained period of time. That has been further SW where the flooding is.

We have had so many marginal setups this year...in fact all of them have been. It sucks b/c I feel like even in those setups, it's responsible if you're into forecasting to play close attention but then when nothing happens people call fail and laugh at you and blah blah.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah that one day really helped out, but it's been the tale of two regimes. June was cool. July was capped like a mofo. August has gone back to being cooler....we really haven't been in the battle ground for a sustained period of time. That has been further SW where the flooding is.

 

Yeah, seems like it's been one extreme or the other this summer. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wouldn't say this season was all bad. June 2nd was a good day in western MA, and July 1st was a surprise in eastern MA. And I caught a nice fakenado on June 26th: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10152977505065220&l=2411202199302390486

 

But I have a feeling we're done for this year :(

 

That's a great video, looks like a cool funnel cloud! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We have had so many marginal setups this year...in fact all of them have been. It sucks b/c I feel like even in those setups, it's responsible if you're into forecasting to play close attention but then when nothing happens people call fail and laugh at you and blah blah.

 

Nobody is going to laugh at you so long as you don't hype it up. I don't think you hype, you get excited, but you tend to give both sides of the argument which is a good thing. You've done well with outlining your thoughts..keep it up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This season was pretty bad in ern areas, but I think SNE as a whole. Limited reports of severe and large hail...really only that one in Windham NH last week.

 

I'm really struggling to think of any other significant hail reports for GYX this year. Tough to do with freezing levels consistently at 14 kft. Other than that, there were a couple isolated big wind events. One in Grafton County, NH and another up by Rangeley, ME.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nobody is going to laugh at you so long as you don't hype it up. I don't think you hype, you get excited, but you tend to give both sides of the argument which is a good thing. You've done well with outlining your thoughts..keep it up.

 

You're really a fool if you don't when it comes to convection. I mean this has been a warm season of caveats for me too. Every AFD has been the positive ingredients followed by an if, but, or however and the negatives. Even our biggest event (the day 7 slight from SPC) the big day came the day before (Friday) not the original outlooked day (Saturday).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You're really a fool if you don't when it comes to convection. I mean this has been a warm season of caveats for me too. Every AFD has been the positive ingredients followed by an if, but, or however and the negatives. Even our biggest event (the day 7 slight from SPC) the big day came the day before (Friday) not the original outlooked day (Saturday).

 

And usually there are more negatives than positives..lol. He's done a good job outlining his thoughts. WxHype take note.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You have to know the failure modes in this business. If you ignore them you'll always find a way to talk yourself into a bad forecast.

 

Absolutely...same can be said in the winter too. I've seen the old "east winds mean rain" even in the media. Well I had almost 15" of "rain" back on 1/12/11 with east winds. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Absolutely...same can be said in the winter too. I've seen the old "east winds mean rain" even in the media. Well I had almost 15" of "rain" back on 1/12/11 with east winds. 

 

:weenie:

 

Stop slant sticking your "rain."

 

We had the same issue though with the October storm. It can't snow two feet in October.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

:weenie:

 

Stop slant sticking your "rain."

 

We had the same issue though with the October storm. It can't snow two feet in October.

 

If any storm ever gave the middle finger to the old adage of "ground is too warm....sun is too strong etc.," it was that storm..lol. I hate those sayings. I don't care if it's Father's Day.....if it is S+, it will stick.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyways, sorry to derail a convection thread. Back to the regularly scheduled program.

 

 

SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f036.gif

 

:weenie:  post right here. I do like some of the ingredients in play though.

 

Freezing levels are much more manageable for hail (under 12 kft), and we won't be completely juiced so melting should be less of an issue.

 

Lapse rates are still pretty meh, but guidance is becoming more confident in CAPE climbing to around 1000 J/kg, especially south of CON. I stand by my stance that shear will overcome the caveats for at least some severe weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...