Christina311 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 I wouldn't say this season was all bad. June 2nd was a good day in western MA, and July 1st was a surprise in eastern MA. And I caught a nice fakenado on June 26th: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10152977505065220&l=2411202199302390486 But I have a feeling we're done for this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 This season was pretty bad in ern areas, but I think SNE as a whole. Limited reports of severe and large hail...really only that one in Windham NH last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 The best widespread storms I saw were with the qcls may 27th? Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Winter is where its at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 11, 2013 Author Share Posted August 11, 2013 This season was pretty bad in ern areas, but I think SNE as a whole. Limited reports of severe and large hail...really only that one in Windham NH last week. I have to agree. CT has had 4 tornadoes this year though which is certainly pretty significant, whether they were weak or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 11, 2013 Author Share Posted August 11, 2013 Winter is where its at. This winter better give me 90" of snow...at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 I have to agree. CT has had 4 tornadoes this year though which is certainly pretty significant, whether they were weak or not. Yeah that one day really helped out, but it's been the tale of two regimes. June was cool. July was capped like a mofo. August has gone back to being cooler....we really haven't been in the battle ground for a sustained period of time. That has been further SW where the flooding is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 11, 2013 Author Share Posted August 11, 2013 Yeah that one day really helped out, but it's been the tale of two regimes. June was cool. July was capped like a mofo. August has gone back to being cooler....we really haven't been in the battle ground for a sustained period of time. That has been further SW where the flooding is. We have had so many marginal setups this year...in fact all of them have been. It sucks b/c I feel like even in those setups, it's responsible if you're into forecasting to play close attention but then when nothing happens people call fail and laugh at you and blah blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Yeah that one day really helped out, but it's been the tale of two regimes. June was cool. July was capped like a mofo. August has gone back to being cooler....we really haven't been in the battle ground for a sustained period of time. That has been further SW where the flooding is. Yeah, seems like it's been one extreme or the other this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 I wouldn't say this season was all bad. June 2nd was a good day in western MA, and July 1st was a surprise in eastern MA. And I caught a nice fakenado on June 26th: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10152977505065220&l=2411202199302390486 But I have a feeling we're done for this year That's a great video, looks like a cool funnel cloud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 We have had so many marginal setups this year...in fact all of them have been. It sucks b/c I feel like even in those setups, it's responsible if you're into forecasting to play close attention but then when nothing happens people call fail and laugh at you and blah blah. Nobody is going to laugh at you so long as you don't hype it up. I don't think you hype, you get excited, but you tend to give both sides of the argument which is a good thing. You've done well with outlining your thoughts..keep it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Hopefully a big day on Tuesday as forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Hopefully a big day on Tuesday as forecast Speaking of laughed at..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 11, 2013 Author Share Posted August 11, 2013 Nobody is going to laugh at you so long as you don't hype it up. I don't think you hype, you get excited, but you tend to give both sides of the argument which is a good thing. You've done well with outlining your thoughts..keep it up. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Nobody is going to laugh at you so long as you don't hype it up. I don't think you hype, you get excited, but you tend to give both sides of the argument which is a good thing. You've done well with outlining your thoughts..keep it up. Thanks..I appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christina311 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 That's a great video, looks like a cool funnel cloud! I think there might have been, for about 20 seconds anyway. Regardless, it was a fun mini chase that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Tuesday could be fun for folks away from coast. Timing looks good as modeled..All about cloud cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Tuesday could be fun for folks away from coast. Timing looks good as modeled..All about cloud cover Hype it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 I think there might have been, for about 20 seconds anyway. Regardless, it was a fun mini chase that day. Yeah, you can really see it roping down from around 0:03 to 0:23 in the video... definitely an awesome catch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Congrats Wiz..nice call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 12, 2013 Author Share Posted August 12, 2013 Nice to see the yellow shading over us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 This season was pretty bad in ern areas, but I think SNE as a whole. Limited reports of severe and large hail...really only that one in Windham NH last week. I'm really struggling to think of any other significant hail reports for GYX this year. Tough to do with freezing levels consistently at 14 kft. Other than that, there were a couple isolated big wind events. One in Grafton County, NH and another up by Rangeley, ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Nobody is going to laugh at you so long as you don't hype it up. I don't think you hype, you get excited, but you tend to give both sides of the argument which is a good thing. You've done well with outlining your thoughts..keep it up. You're really a fool if you don't when it comes to convection. I mean this has been a warm season of caveats for me too. Every AFD has been the positive ingredients followed by an if, but, or however and the negatives. Even our biggest event (the day 7 slight from SPC) the big day came the day before (Friday) not the original outlooked day (Saturday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 You're really a fool if you don't when it comes to convection. I mean this has been a warm season of caveats for me too. Every AFD has been the positive ingredients followed by an if, but, or however and the negatives. Even our biggest event (the day 7 slight from SPC) the big day came the day before (Friday) not the original outlooked day (Saturday). And usually there are more negatives than positives..lol. He's done a good job outlining his thoughts. WxHype take note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 And usually there are more negatives than positives..lol. He's done a good job outlining his thoughts. WxHype take note. You have to know the failure modes in this business. If you ignore them you'll always find a way to talk yourself into a bad forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 You have to know the failure modes in this business. If you ignore them you'll always find a way to talk yourself into a bad forecast. Absolutely...same can be said in the winter too. I've seen the old "east winds mean rain" even in the media. Well I had almost 15" of "rain" back on 1/12/11 with east winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Absolutely...same can be said in the winter too. I've seen the old "east winds mean rain" even in the media. Well I had almost 15" of "rain" back on 1/12/11 with east winds. Stop slant sticking your "rain." We had the same issue though with the October storm. It can't snow two feet in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Stop slant sticking your "rain." We had the same issue though with the October storm. It can't snow two feet in October. If any storm ever gave the middle finger to the old adage of "ground is too warm....sun is too strong etc.," it was that storm..lol. I hate those sayings. I don't care if it's Father's Day.....if it is S+, it will stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Anyways, sorry to derail a convection thread. Back to the regularly scheduled program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Anyways, sorry to derail a convection thread. Back to the regularly scheduled program. post right here. I do like some of the ingredients in play though. Freezing levels are much more manageable for hail (under 12 kft), and we won't be completely juiced so melting should be less of an issue. Lapse rates are still pretty meh, but guidance is becoming more confident in CAPE climbing to around 1000 J/kg, especially south of CON. I stand by my stance that shear will overcome the caveats for at least some severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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