When we will see an ice free arctic?

[Jonger]

Somewhere between 2025-2060. People are really going to be shocked when we see a strongly positive PDO and El Nino will do next,and I think it will be the game changer

 

The first time the arctic becomes ice free, it will be because of a major fram flush and warm summer. It will be a massive undertaking, but if there was a way to build a land-bridge/barrier near the fram... It would probably put the melt out off indefinitely.

 

Like Marietta said, I'm also not sure if an ice-free fall would really matter much to the planet.

[Wow]

If the 2012 record is not broken in the next 10 years then I don't think I will witness it in my lifetime. Bold enough!?

[The_Global_Warmer]

If the 2012 record is not broken in the next 10 years then I don't think I will witness it in my lifetime. Bold enough!?

It won't happen in 2014.

That leaves 9 more seasons.

Volume wise we have reached a baseline of sorts until the arctic gets warmer and saltier an ice free arctic would be impossible.

A 2012 repeat would be pretty easy as we go along with roughly 80 % of the ice pack being 2M or less as the Summer starts.

We have reached a point where in spite of cooling in the arctic post 2011 no recovery in volume has been made.

Not even 2012 could come as close as 2007 warmth wise in summer.

So there is some lag or external forcing increasing could have a larger effect on melting ice and snow versus warning the air.

My point is even the MYI old ice. 5 year ice under 2M thick to start the Summer is pretty unprecedented.

So to get an ice free arctic May melting has to become a reality combined with historic snow cover loss.

From what I understand there is a huge cross correlation.

But we have to see another 1-2c in arctic warming from current max's to see any chance of an ice free arctic IMO

[blizzard1024]

The arctic sea ice will recover as the AMO continues to flip to the colder phase. I would expect between 2020 to 2030.

[LithiaWx]

Bumpity bump for ORH.

[StudentOfClimatology]

2041-2050, maybe later. Hard to quantify though given the non linear nature of climate change, both in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution.

[AvantHiatus]

This is going to be rich. I still want compensation for future damage.

 

So do all those posters who voted in a thousand years think we will geoengineer our way out of an ice free state? That is really the only way to defend that position. We've come a long ways since this poll was created for sure. I will give them the benefit of doubt.

[LithiaWx]

This poll does show you how there are tons of al gore hating republicans, I mean deniers running around here.

[A-L-E-K]

2025 sounds good

[nflwxman]

Ditto, 2025.  The arctic is warming fast...

[Jonger]

This poll does show you how there are tons of al gore hating republicans, I mean deniers running around here.

 

See, I think much of your recent demeanor has to do with politics, it's carrying over from PR.

 

There aren't any board regulars with guesses outside of a relatively probable range.

 

Actually Loko's guess is probably the worst board regular guess.

 

There is basically no chance the arctic melts out within 5 years.

[Jonger]

My guess is most likely too late. Nothing recent has changed my opinion besides more knowledge, I'd now go with 2040-2050 if I could.

 

My original guess was made before the end of the 2013 melt season, so the most recent full melt season was the crappy 2012 year.

 

I'm 36 now, I'd guess that the ice is gone right about the time I retire. 

[nflwxman]

See, I think much of your recent demeanor has to do with politics, it's carrying over from PR.

 

There aren't any board regulars with guesses outside of a relatively probable range.

 

Actually Loko's guess is probably the worst board regular guess.

 

There is basically no chance the arctic melts out within 5 years.

 

 

ehhh. I don't think that's quite right.

[superjames1992]

It will probably melt within my lifetime (next 60 years). Gun to my head, I'd say 2031-2040 and probably more likely in the first half of that decade.

[csnavywx]

2035 for break-even chance. +/- 7 years for 25-75%.

[LocoAko]

See, I think much of your recent demeanor has to do with politics, it's carrying over from PR.

 

There aren't any board regulars with guesses outside of a relatively probable range.

 

Actually Loko's guess is probably the worst board regular guess.

 

There is basically no chance the arctic melts out within 5 years.

 

To be honest I just revisited this thread and saw my vote and have no recollection of participating in this poll, lol. I'd definitely change my vote now to sometime in the 2020s (though that could still make me off by only a few years.... not as bad as being off by thousands ).

[StudentOfClimatology]

Ditto, 2025. The arctic is warming fast...

There's been no statistically significant warming in the Arctic domain for ~ a decade. There's not much support for a 2025 melt-out date in the peer reviewed literature.

[AvantHiatus]

There's been no statistically significant warming in the Arctic domain for ~ a decade. There's not much support for a 2025 melt-out date in the peer reviewed literature.

There wasn't much support for WAIS collapse 5 years ago but now there is. I completely expect to be surprised every 2 years (in terms of unintended consequences) or so as the rate of change accelerates.

[T. August]

I went with 2100-2200.

 

Yeah boi...

[csnavywx]

There's been no statistically significant warming in the Arctic domain for ~ a decade. There's not much support for a 2025 melt-out date in the peer reviewed literature.

I don't think a 2020s melt is likely either, but using a one decade trend for that isn't exactly how I would've argued against it. The 30-year trend is +1C/decade.

[nflwxman]

There's been no statistically significant warming in the Arctic domain for ~ a decade. There's not much support for a 2025 melt-out date in the peer reviewed literature.

Thanks for the update.

[frontranger8]

What if we have a year with less than 1M min, and then the next year rockets back up to 5M?

 

OR

 

What if we have a 6M+ min in the next 10 years, but then a 1M min in the late 2020s?

[nflwxman]

What if we have a year with less than 1M min, and then the next year rockets back up to 5M?

OR

What if we have a 6M+ min in the next 10 years, but then a 1M min in the late 2020s?

I think this is more likely than a methodical melt out. Patterns will likely become more erratic and thus lead to much higher standard deviations of extent in future decades.

Hence why I'm banking sooner than most literature suggests. The models may not support it, but the trend line and statistics do.

[csnavywx]

What if we have a year with less than 1M min, and then the next year rockets back up to 5M?

 

OR

 

What if we have a 6M+ min in the next 10 years, but then a 1M min in the late 2020s?

Interestingly, there are plenty of model runs that show some intense year-to-year variability during the demise of the summer ice pack. Not to the magnitude you suggest, but significant nonetheless. "Climate flickering" if you will.

[Mallow]

What if we have a year with less than 1M min, and then the next year rockets back up to 5M?

 

OR

 

What if we have a 6M+ min in the next 10 years, but then a 1M min in the late 2020s?

 

What if?

Also, you have two (different) votes now.

[frontranger8]

What if?

Also, you have two (different) votes now.

 

I changed my mind. It happens.

 

2041 instead of 2040.

[frontranger8]

I think this is more likely than a methodical melt out. Patterns will likely become more erratic and thus lead to much higher standard deviations of extent in future decades.

Hence why I'm banking sooner than most literature suggests. The models may not support it, but the trend line and statistics do.

 

Yeah, you pretty much nailed my point. One year isn't the be-all, end-all.

[Mallow]

I changed my mind. It happens.

 

2041 instead of 2040.

 

Wasn't accusing you of anything, no need to get defensive. Now you can see that you had the tacoman account on here, though.

[Mallow]

Yeah, you pretty much nailed my point. One year isn't the be-all, end-all.

 

Who said it was? The poll is just asking about the first such occurrence, not making a statement about the implications.

[frontranger8]

Wasn't accusing you of anything, no need to get defensive. Now you can see that you had the tacoman account on here, though.

 

I wasn't defensive...do I sound defensive?

 

I don't remember why I created a new profile, but I distinctly remember there was a reason for it. Other than to fool people into thinking I was someone else, of course.