Cryosphere watch, 2013

[Typhoon Tip]

Hi Guys, 

 

The last few years I have started Cryosphere watch threads to encourage discussion and knowledge sharing regarding (first) the status of intraseasonal sea-ice, and then later as the autumn gets going, the rate of expansion of snow cover.   As we all know, sea-ice during the summer has been a hot climate debate of recent eras, particularly the last 5 years, which have shown some record low areal coverage values at the typical seasonal nadirs.   This has encouraged lots of scientific speculation, ranging from eventual consequences of observed stresses upon the arctic biota, to implications in GW/albedo.    Lots of topics for discussion... 

 

What I am observing right now is that sea-ice has been a little bit more resistant to melt-off this year compared to the previous 3 years.   This as per data provided at:  http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

 

For ease, I have compared the spatial layouts of just 2012 -vs- 2013;  clearly there is a larger area per date holding ice this year compared to last year.  

 

 

 

This is also shown graphically - 

 

 

As the curve above shows, 2012, although lower than normal was right in with peer years across the previous 5 seasons, when abruptly there was a much more massive loss that began at the end of August that went on to becoming the lowest sea-ice year on record.  

 

As far as implications to climate, it is too early to speculate. The going hypothesis/papers discuss the autumn snow cover negatively correlating with the AO when time lag is supplied.  In recent seasons I have postulated that the observation of the rate of change (delta land snow/sea-ice recovery during autumn) is of more importance for describing the system, than any scalar value/observation made at any given time.  For the timing being, I am more interested in the subtle resistance to melt sea-ice when compared to the previous 4 season, now on-going.  We'll see if it holds, or if the bottom falls out like last year soon enough.  

[weathafella]

Tip, who gave you permission to start this thread? Dnt bring bad karma upon us.

[CoastalWx]

The vortex up there is certainly a big reason for the ice hanging tight near the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Usually if that ice is stubborn than it's tough to have a huge melt year like we had last year.

[Tropopause_Fold]

let it melt. lol. 

[Ginx snewx]

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/08/asi-2013-update-6-major-slowdown.html

[weathafella]

The next 30 days tell the tale. Clearly we're not at the abysmally low ice levels of a year ago. I'll be starting my annual thread on the main bb right after Labor Day.

[CoastalWx]

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/08/asi-2013-update-6-major-slowdown.html

 

Amazing what natural cycles can do. AWT. I wonder how much he vomitted as he wrote the blog. Must have made him stick to is stomach.

[Ginx snewx]

Amazing what natural cycles can do. AWT. I wonder how much he vomitted as he wrote the blog. Must have made him stick to is stomach.

pretty sad reading that, obvious bias. Hope he did not get too sick.

[Ginx snewx]

The next 30 days tell the tale. Clearly we're not at the abysmally low ice levels of a year ago. I'll be starting my annual thread on the main bb right after Labor Day.

Nice

[CoastalWx]

pretty sad reading that, obvious bias. Hope he did not get too sick.

 

It bothers me how polarizing that topic is. It seems like most either hope for ice melt, or the other side just tries to prove how we are moving into global cooling. I just want to know WTF is going on and why. The science FTL when that happens.

[Ginx snewx]

It bothers me how polarizing that topic is. It seems like most either hope for ice melt, or the other side just tries to prove how we are moving into global cooling. I just want to know WTF is going on and why. The science FTL when that happens.

Yea me too, saw some comments on there that really strike me as odd. Its a learning process, both sides need to respect the science.

[Ginx snewx]

I do admit I hope the ice does not melt only because of winter, I like winter. More ice means more cold production.

[CoastalWx]

I do admit I hope the ice does not melt only because of winter, I like winter. More ice means more cold production.

 

Honestly though, that ice would flash freeze so quickly.....the effect on our winter temps would probably barely register if at all. An ice free arctic would be very brief at the worst, unless the sun blew up.

[nzucker]

The next 30 days tell the tale. Clearly we're not at the abysmally low ice levels of a year ago. I'll be starting my annual thread on the main bb right after Labor Day.

I think we will finish at least one million square kilometers above 2012 sea ice levels, or with a minimum around 4,800,000km, similar to 2010 levels on JAXA. We are still within running of 2009, which had a September minimum of 5.2 million on JAXA. We will need to avoid losing all the Beaufort and East Siberian ice.

2010 chewed through 500,000 km of ice in September. That record melt prevented a higher minimum like 2009, which lost less than 200,000 km in September. If we keep the vortex over the Arctic Basin as long-range models show, I cannot see large losses in the 2010 style.

[nzucker]

Honestly though, that ice would flash freeze so quickly.....the effect on our winter temps would probably barely register if at all. An ice free arctic would be very brief at the worst, unless the sun blew up.

Some studies actually show that lower sea ice (and sea ice depletion) leads to higher heights in the Arctic during winter and thus a -NAO/-AO.

This would make our winters colder and snowier in SNE in the short term while depleting the cold air source long term as the arctic warns drastically. I would think winter lovers would still prefer more robust arctic sea ice as it will manage albedo and keep the cold air source robust.

[CoastalWx]

Some studies actually show that lower sea ice (and sea ice depletion) leads to higher heights in the Arctic during winter and thus a -NAO/-AO.

This would make our winters colder and snowier in SNE in the short term while depleting the cold air source long term as the arctic warns drastically. I would think winter lovers would still prefer more robust arctic sea ice as it will manage albedo and keep the cold air source robust.

 

Well it's all theory. It would probably hurt temps somewhat, but the rapid build up of ice would probably occur quickly and try to limit lasting effects of warming. If anything it would probably have more of an effect locally above 70-80N where areas that once had ice are now ice free....but again this is all hypothetical. Aside from lab tests, it's tough to say what the exact effects would be, other than educated guesses.

 

I've also heard about the lack of ice and -AO/-NAO...but that sort of got trashed this summer with a very +AO despite the ice hurting early on. There is likely some truth to that, but you can also argue the chicken or the egg argument.

[weathafella]

Bigger ice and snow to start should correlate to more winter here. That's intuitive I would think.

[CoastalWx]

Bigger ice and snow to start should correlate to more winter here. That's intuitive I would think.

 

Yeah I think it is as well....but there are nuances. We can have all that ice we want up there, but if we have a Bering Sea vortex...it doesn't mean much...lol. My point is that I doubt extremely low sea ice would lead to a DC climate around here.

[Snow_Miser]

Amazing what natural cycles can do.

 

Yeah, a significant part of the Arctic Sea Ice decrease during the late-20th Century was likely a result of the Bipolar Seesaw induced from the AMO.

 

 

The blue shows Arctic detrended temperatures, and the red shows Antarctic detrended temperatures.

 

I'm not sure what the effect of higher Sea Ice relative to the last few years would bring. As Nate said, there is research that claims that less Arctic Sea Ice results in more higher latitude blocking, which would force more cold into the East. However, with more Sea Ice, that would also mean a colder Arctic overall and potentially stronger Arctic shots. We'll just have to wait and see what the influence is.

[Ginx snewx]

I agree with Jerry, load up the snow and ice, that damn breaks we get, well Feb March 2013 walks in the door.

[Typhoon Tip]

If you are a winter weather enthusiast and or preferred client ... this is good news!   Late summer and autumn preponderances of +AO are nicely lag-correlated to -AO during DJF.   This may also be why we are seeing somewhat slower latter summer melt rates than previous years; this type of circulation bias bottles cold N and that contributes accordingly. I do not recall as decent of a PV structured at this time of year, recently, as we are seeing now...

 

[Snow_Miser]

This thread needs a bit of a bump.

 

Today:

 

 

2012 on the same date: