Deck Pic Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 I found these on NCDC's site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 6, 2013 Author Share Posted August 6, 2013 So, currently we are -3.3, though LWX says -3.0, but this will even itself out once we hit the 78's and start rounding up for a week and in the end the monthly departures are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 I like the increase in the rate of change at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 I like the increase in the rate of change at the end of the month. by the end of sep we lose like half a degree a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 I like the increase in the rate of change at the end of the month. Yes, but if you look at historical DC August temperatures, you get a somewhat different picture. During 1872-2012, the coolest August day in DC was the 28th, with an average temperature of 74.5, compared with 74.8 on the 29th, 75.2 on the 30th, and 75.0 on the 31st. During 1981-2010, the coolest August day in DC was the 22nd, with an average temperature of 75.7, compared with 76.2 on the 23rd, 76.8 on the 24th, 76.9 on the 25th, 77.3 on the 26th, 78.4 on the 27th, 77.6 on the 28th, 77.1 on the 29th, 76.5 on the 30th, and 76.1 on the 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Yes, but if you look at historical DC August temperatures, you get a somewhat different picture. During 1872-2012, the coolest August day in DC was the 28th, with an average temperature of 74.5, compared with 74.8 on the 29th, 75.2 on the 30th, and 75.0 on the 31st. During 1981-2010, the coolest August day in DC was the 22nd, with an average temperature of 75.7, compared with 76.2 on the 23rd, 76.8 on the 24th, 76.9 on the 25th, 77.3 on the 26th, 78.4 on the 27th, 77.6 on the 28th, 77.1 on the 29th, 76.5 on the 30th, and 76.1 on the 31st. Yeah, that's where NCDC's smoothing algorithm comes in. Otherwise, the norms would be a messy jumble like you've pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Yeah, that's where NCDC's smoothing algorithm comes in. Otherwise, the norms would be a messy jumble like you've pointed out. The smoothing algorithm is based on a theoretical model that seems plausible, but I wonder if it's missing something. In particular, DC January temperatures over the last three decades plus seem inconsistent with that model. That could be just an aberration, but since 1980 January temperatures have been peaking on the 13th in DC, just when the model shows that they should be bottoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 9, 2013 Author Share Posted August 9, 2013 we'll be around -1.8 after today...our cold august is slip-sliding away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 14, 2013 Author Share Posted August 14, 2013 solid -8.5 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Gfs looks like it may want to look like August in dc near the end if the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Overnight low of 55. It is getting later in summer now but still not a common event to have a day mostly sunny and temeprature not exceed 80; slight shot we may ahve 3 in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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