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8/6-8/8 Severe Weather Threat


Brewers

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Current MCS should slide north/dissipate, allowing SEMI to destabilize nicely. Frontal timing looks pretty damn good and shear as well. Biggest caveat is probably the fact that the front will be aligning more parallel to the flow, decreasing convergence.

Sent from my HTCONE 4

 

 

or not

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1654
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LWR MI...NRN IL...NRN IND...AND NRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 071252Z - 071445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING OVER SRN LWR MI AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF
NRN IL...NRN IND...AND NRN OH AS SFC HEATING ERODES NOCTURNAL SFC
STABLE LAYER. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY DUE TO ASSOCIATED THREAT
FOR DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL.

DISCUSSION...GUST FRONT MARKING THE SRN EDGE OF ELONGATING COLD POOL
LEFT BY OVERNIGHT SQLN IN WI AND CNTRL MI HAS BECOME ORIENTED
ROUGHLY W-E OVER SRN LWR MI...PARALLEL TO SEASONABLY STRONG /30-50
KT/ 700-500 MB FLOW ACROSS REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SERVE AS A SOURCE OF LOW-LVL UPLIFT AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY S ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF LWR MI INTO NRN PARTS OF IL...IND...AND OH LATER THIS
MORNING.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PRESENT S OF GUST FRONT...SFC
HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY RAPID EROSION OF SFC-BASED NOCTURNAL
STABLE LAYER OVER REGION. UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS AT DVN AND ILX SHOW
PRESENCE OF DEEP EML THAT...GIVEN SEASONABLY STRONG WLY FLOW ON SRN
FRINGE OF UPR MI VORT MAX...WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
SRN LWR MI AND ADJACENT IND/OH THROUGH MIDDAY. COUPLED WITH FAIRLY
RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/ AND 30-35 KT WLY DEEP
SHEAR...SETUP MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED
STORMS INCLUDING EMBEDDED ROTATING STRUCTURES/LEWPS CAPABLE OF DMGG
WIND AND SVR HAIL.

STORM TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A
WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..CORFIDI/BROYLES.. 08/07/2013

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A tornado warned supercell has tracked near Canton OH (still in vicinity.) There is one report of 1" hail in Canton. Not sure if there is any confirmation on a tornado in Canton or Massilon areas. There is a separate tornado warning south of Wooster OH.

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A tornado warned supercell has tracked near Canton OH (still in vicinity.) There is one report of 1" hail in Canton. Not sure if there is any confirmation on a tornado in Canton or Massilon areas. There is a separate tornado warning south of Wooster OH.

The tornado warned supercell that tracked over Canton produced a tornado in Orrville which is west of Canton in Wayne County. The tornado occurred just before the warning was issued. There are reports of wind damage in Massillon but no tornado reports from Stark County yet.

No word on any damage from the second tornado warned supercell you mentioned in your post...that one fizzled rather quickly after getting warned.

 

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The tornado warned supercell that tracked over Canton produced a tornado in Orrville which is west of Canton in Wayne County. The tornado occurred just before the warning was issued. There are reports of wind damage in Massillon but no tornado reports from Stark County yet.

No word on any damage from the second tornado warned supercell you mentioned in your post...that one fizzled rather quickly after getting warned.

 

 

The hook echo on this was rather impressive. I'm surprised that CLE didn't pull the trigger on a warning before it struck.

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The hook echo on this was rather impressive. I'm surprised that CLE didn't pull the trigger on a warning before it struck.

I didn't get home until right after the tor was issued and don't want to comment on that too much...Gary Garnet (the WCM) was issuing the warnings today so I'd like to hope that the signature wasn't blatant until perhaps right when the tornado touched down, hence the warning not coming until then.

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So far, two tornados confirmed in the Fox Valley.

 

 

 

000
NOUS43 KGRB 072349 CCA
PNSGRB
WIZ030-031-035>040-045-048>050-080100-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
650 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...AUGUST 7 TORNADO INFORMATION...

A LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PRODUCED WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE MORNING ON AUGUST 7.
WITHIN THE AREA OF STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS...WHICH GUSTED OVER 75 MPH AT
TIMES...TORNADOES FORMED AND PRODUCED ENHANCED AREAS OF DAMAGE.

A DAMAGE SURVEY COMPLETED TODAY REVEALED TWO TORNADOES THAT PRODUCED
CONCENTRATED DAMAGE IN THESE LOCATIONS:

* TORNADO 1: NEW LONDON /WAUPACA CO/ TO HORTONVILLE /OUTAGAMIE CO/

* TORNADO 2: NORTH SIDE OF APPLETON /OUTAGAMIE CO/
TO NEAR HOLLAND /BROWN CO/ TO HWY 57 AND COUNTY RD KK /CALUMET CO/

IN ADDITION...TORNADOES MAY HAVE OCCURRED FROM THE FREEDOM AREA IN
OUTAGAMIE COUNTY TO NEAR GREENLEAF IN BROWN COUNTY. ANOTHER
CIRCULATION IN THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPED SOUTH OF WRIGHTSTOWN AND
CONTINUED EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MANITOWOC COUNTY NEAR
MARIBEL. A DAMAGE SURVEY WILL BE CONDUCTED ON THURSDAY FOR THESE
STORMS.


$
JKL
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY
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Just east of Arthur, ON. Was on the ground at least 5 minutes that I saw. Highlight of this summer's weather!

You wouldn't happen to be Dave Patrick's twin would you?  :clap: Great achievement, waiting for the day I see my first. It always gets me everytime I think I could have seen something like that just by driving 1 hour or so. That photo with the 2nd funnel is cool, very photogenic funnels.

 

The tornado near Arthur was probably the best one in Ontario this year, great motion and you could tell the shear was very good. The photos were all over most newscasts around southern Ontario along with some great funnels near Orillia.

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You wouldn't happen to be Dave Patrick's twin would you?  :clap: Great achievement, waiting for the day I see my first. It always gets me everytime I think I could have seen something like that just by driving 1 hour or so. That photo with the 2nd funnel is cool, very photogenic funnels.

 

The tornado near Arthur was probably the best one in Ontario this year, great motion and you could tell the shear was very good. The photos were all over most newscasts around southern Ontario along with some great funnels near Orillia.

 

Ha Dave is a great Ontario chaser who really knows storms and the local terrain. He managed to get within 250m of the tornado and had some pretty impressive video.

 

Probably one of the most photogenic tornadoes of the season for sure. Shear was great yesterday and you could tell that as soon as storms broke the cap that they would fire up quickly. Forcing was weak which kept storms isolated so that was nice.

 

----

 

My position, although not the closest of any chasers, allowed me to capture this great structure shot. Notice the clear slot/RFD wrap around and of course the great towering cumulus and tornado on the ground. This is south of the cell looking north at it.

 

0vfmtxe.jpg

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Ha Dave is a great Ontario chaser who really knows storms and the local terrain. He managed to get within 250m of the tornado and had some pretty impressive video.

 

Probably one of the most photogenic tornadoes of the season for sure. Shear was great yesterday and you could tell that as soon as storms broke the cap that they would fire up quickly. Forcing was weak which kept storms isolated so that was nice.

 

----

 

My position, although not the closest of any chasers, allowed me to capture this great structure shot. Notice the clear slot/RFD wrap around and of course the great towering cumulus and tornado on the ground. This is south of the cell looking north at it.

 

0vfmtxe.jpg

This is really an amazing shot!

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