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Aug 8th-10th Severe Wx


free_man

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Whole thing pulling east a bit faster than I thought and it's really brightened here.  Seems like the Pike from Sturbridge east will take the brunt for the next couple hours.  We might clear out some with maybe a few light showers in advance of the cold front.   2.6" on the Davis.

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Whole thing pulling east a bit faster than I though and it's really brightened here.  Seems like the Pike from Sturbridge east will take the brunt for the next couple hours.  We might clear out some with maybe a few light showers in advance of the cold front.   2.6" on the Davis.

Yep just a hair under 2" total here. Was coming down pretty good for about a half hour.

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mcd1678.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1678

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF SERN NY/CT/MA/NRN RI/FAR SRN NH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091725Z - 091930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON

WILL POSE A THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS...A FEW POTENTIALLY PRODUCING

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WHILE A NONZERO THREAT EXISTS FOR A

FUNNEL/BRIEF...WEAK TORNADO. GIVEN THE LOW SEVERE WEATHER

THREAT...A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT WARRANTED...THOUGH CONVECTIVE

TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...SINCE 16Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY OVER SERN NY INTO

WRN/NRN CT AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MA HAVE INDICATED RELATIVELY BROAD

LOW-MID LEVEL ROTATION COUPLETS WITH A BAND OF TSTMS EMBEDDED IN A

LARGER CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THESE

STORMS APPEAR TO BE ATTENDANT TO A PROGRESSIVE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE

MOVING ACROSS SERN NY/CT ATTM AND FURTHER AIDED BY LARGE SCALE

ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT

LAKES STATES. ALTHOUGH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND WEAK LAPSE

RATES WILL LIMIT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION TODAY...STRONG EFFECTIVE

BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZATION AS INDICATED BY

THE ONGOING UPDRAFT ROTATION. VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES PER

AREA WSR-88D VADS AT OKX/BOX SHOWED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH

CURVATURE/LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO THREAT. THE WEAK

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM INTENSITIES...THOUGH

AFOREMENTIONED KINEMATICS AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /PW AROUND 2

INCH/ SUGGEST WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A BRIEF/WEAK

TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..PETERS/WEISS.. 08/09/2013

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 41607415 42157315 42717241 42777122 42417122 42047124

41747144 41647184 41547229 41457285 41387345 41407400

41607415

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