CT Rain Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 00z NAM definitely has some convective feedback issues... it closes off a low at 850 mb as it trucks ENE toward Maine lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 I"ll take a 35 knot LLJ and run with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 lol - 00z SPC WRF has a landphoon for Kevin to miss. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christina311 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 *Fingers crossed for tomorrow* I just spent about 40 minutes reading a thread from last summer. It was mainly posts from July 18th. But I didn't want to bump a thread that old. Someone posted a video of a possible funnel in Lynn MA. That video was all over the news the next day and drove me crazy because it wasn't from Lynn. It was recorded in Woburn. In my office park. While I was about 50 yards away on the other side of the building. My avatar is a picture I took less than a minute before that video was filmed. It moved out of my sight quick due to all the buildings and trees. Most of the local news meteorologists thought it was a funnel. There was definitely rotation where I was. I'm still bitter about not being on that side of the building Anyway, back to the discussion.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 9, 2013 Author Share Posted August 9, 2013 *Fingers crossed for tomorrow* I just spent about 40 minutes reading a thread from last summer. It was mainly posts from July 18th. But I didn't want to bump a thread that old. Someone posted a video of a possible funnel in Lynn MA. That video was all over the news the next day and drove me crazy because it wasn't from Lynn. It was recorded in Woburn. In my office park. While I was about 50 yards away on the other side of the building. My avatar is a picture I took less than a minute before that video was filmed. It moved out of my sight quick due to all the buildings and trees. Most of the local news meteorologists thought it was a funnel. There was definitely rotation where I was. I'm still bitter about not being on that side of the building Anyway, back to the discussion.... I had a trip to boston that day down i93 and drove through it in medford/stoneham. Was a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 I had great view of that rotating scudnado from 95 /93 interchange driving back from somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 First batch of heavy rain over NE PA/SE NY should progress through western New England over the next several hours. We then might get a break and the level of destabilization will be key. NAM has backed off somewhat and the model reflectivity is actually very meh now. HRRR is in range and really likes early to mid afternoon across southern New England. FWIW Wiz, SPC SREF still has 30% 12-hr severe probs for part of CT and now there's a 5% circle around the state for tornado ingredients at 18z I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 First batch of heavy rain over NE PA/SE NY should progress through western New England over the next several hours. We then might get a break and the level of destabilization will be key. NAM has backed off somewhat and the model reflectivity is actually very meh now. HRRR is in range and really likes early to mid afternoon across southern New England. FWIW Wiz, SPC SREF still has 30% 12-hr severe probs for part of CT and now there's a 5% circle around the state for tornado ingredients at 18z I believe. Yeah once that area of precip clears the area we then see if we can manage any breaks of sunshine. We really won't need a great deal of Cape today but we will also have to watch storm mode. With no cap and juicy atmosphere with strong lift, we just may see multiple bands/areas of heavy showers with just embedded thunder develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 With no cap and juicy atmosphere with strong lift, we just may see multiple bands/areas of heavy showers with just embedded thunder develop. This is definitely a concern, especially with plenty of pwat. It's really going to come down to nowcasting and watching radar very closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 LLJ must be strong already. Outside and clouds are racing fairly well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 LLJ must be strong already. Outside and clouds are racing fairly wellAssuming the 5 a.m. mesoanalysis is accurate, much of the area has 30kt winds at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Seems like and solar insolation is minimal, but rather strong kinematics still at play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Already in the mid 70s and humid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Already in the mid 70s and humidDews 68-72 in just about every SNE station. LWM in NE Mass. was 67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 First batch of heavy rain over NE PA/SE NY should progress through western New England over the next several hours. We then might get a break and the level of destabilization will be key. NAM has backed off somewhat and the model reflectivity is actually very meh now. HRRR is in range and really likes early to mid afternoon across southern New England. FWIW Wiz, SPC SREF still has 30% 12-hr severe probs for part of CT and now there's a 5% circle around the state for tornado ingredients at 18z I believe. Unless we get those breaks of sun, I would have Scooter flags thrown all over the place. Meanwhile, the batch that's working through has some nice amounts in it. 68.2/68, .40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Unless we get those breaks of sun, I would have Scooter flags thrown all over the place. Meanwhile, the batch that's working through has some nice amounts in it. 68.2/68, .40" Those days where CT had some spin ups really didn't have any sun. However, no two setups are the same so it may be meh if we just have continuous shwrs/tstms. However cloud bases will be low and with the shear we have...it's certainly one to watch especially if we see a few breaks or brightening of the skies later this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Unless we get those breaks of sun, I would have Scooter flags thrown all over the place. Meanwhile, the batch that's working through has some nice amounts in it. 68.2/68, .40" Really won't need a great deal of sun today. Given the shear, even 500 J/KG of Cape would be more than sufficient for some weak/brief spinups...however, if we were able to manage more breaks of sun and get some temps into the low 80's or a few ticks higher, then we could possibly look at something more than just a EF0 or EF1. Given how dews should be 70F or even a tad higher, that alone should yield to capes close to 500 J/KG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 The 6z GFS is fairly ominous, and graphical products develop some pretty heft instability which if it were to verify could make some some scary storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Back edge of the heavy/steady rain shield is basically to the NJ/NY border now. Don't have satellite imagery to work with yet, but based off of obs and WV, it looks like there's some modest drying down in the mid-Atlantic states. Keep an eye on this to see if SNE can break through to some sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Back edge of the heavy/steady rain shield is basically to the NJ/NY border now. Don't have satellite imagery to work with yet, but based off of obs and WV, it looks like there's some modest drying down in the mid-Atlantic states. Keep an eye on this to see if SNE can break through to some sunshine. Gotta wonder if the GFS is hinting at that b/c the 6z run has some decent instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Really won't need a great deal of sun today. Given the shear, even 500 J/KG of Cape would be more than sufficient for some weak/brief spinups...however, if we were able to manage more breaks of sun and get some temps into the low 80's or a few ticks higher, then we could possibly look at something more than just a EF0 or EF1. Given how dews should be 70F or even a tad higher, that alone should yield to capes close to 500 J/KG. Per yours and Scott's responses, I realize I should spend more time reading than opining. To the degree we don't need to rely on much sun is a good thing--those breaks might be a little tough to come by. 683/68 .51" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Albany's gone with FFW for the northern Berkshire into it's SVT zones. I wonder if BOX will follow suit in GC. .57" now. I'm guessing that area running from NE PA-Utica along the NY Ontario line is our area of sun?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Per yours and Scott's responses, I realize I should spend more time reading than opining. To the degree we don't need to rely on much sun is a good thing--those breaks might be a little tough to come by. 683/68 .51" Nothing wrong with giving an opinion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Wow...looking at satellite imagery, we may actually have a solid chance to see some peaks of sun...and within the next 3 hours or so as well, especially across western CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 I just hate how I have to be at work today. I'll be home by like 4:50 but everything will probably be past here by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 06z NAM and GFS don't look nearly as impressive today as the evening runs yesterday did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Would someone who is going to be around and checking things often during the day be able to shoot me any texts with any latest developments? I may not be able to respond b/c they have very strict cell phone policies here but I can sneak and take a look at my phone every now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Wow...looking at satellite imagery, we may actually have a solid chance to see some peaks of sun...and within the next 3 hours or so as well, especially across western CT Yup--that area does look to have some clearing inbound. You folks in CT have really had the liion-share this year (well, you and PF). Clearing looks a little less pronounced for areas in NW Mass, but we might breakout for a while, too. That those breaks might be happening through some peak heating time bodes well. .62" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 06z NAM and GFS don't look nearly as impressive today as the evening runs yesterday did. It looked like the LLJ tickled east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Pretty decent over RI and ern MA if anything can develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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