CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 LLJ persists across SNE, esp ern areas, while better forcing west. Still probably some mesos that rotate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 LLJ persists across SNE, esp ern areas, while better forcing west. Still probably some mesos that rotate. SPC remains unimpressed at least as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 SPC remains unimpressed at least as of now. Nothing realy impressive about this as of now. It could be if we got enough sun, but that question certainly is up for grabs, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 The one thing too about the SPC which JoeD has mentioned, especially on twitter is that the SPC deals with more higher end severe weather events and outbreaks while setups like what we have here are typically handled more by local forecast offices so you typically won't see the SPC really crazy for these types of setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 The one thing too about the SPC which JoeD has mentioned, especially on twitter is that the SPC deals with more higher end severe weather events and outbreaks while setups like what we have here are typically handled more by local forecast offices so you typically won't see the SPC really crazy for these types of setups. well it's also areal coverage too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Oh definitely... QLCSs are a nightmare for warning operations. This one was sort of interesting in that you had one relatively long lasting embedded supercell (with a TDS and TS for about 30 minutes from what I saw) that was unwarned... with at times a delta v of nearly 90 knots. I've seen a lot of cases where much weaker embedded vorticies are warned like the forecaster is handing out candy at halloween so it's a real tough balance... I'm not sure what the answer is because you're right the strongly worded SVR should be sufficient. And that's the rub really, you can't avoid issuing the TOR because what if it ends up being a sustained TVS? Can you really feel comfortable waiting for the next volume scan when a tornado could be on the ground? I wouldn't. Not that it's a controversial statement but I agree that QLCS' are extremely difficult to warn on. Our best example in Oklahoma was April 2nd 2010... What appeared to be an ordinary looking early morning squall line very quickly changed characteristics and produced highly damaging winds. (>75 kts) Check out the differences in appearance in a 3 minute stretch: And to make matters worse, look at the differences in reflectivity with height: The top image is only 1700 feet OTG and the bottom 1200'. What's clearly a BWER at 1200' is barely distinguishable at only 1700'. And this was extremely close to the radar which was fortunate, but in general these will be sampled much higher. I will say the velocity sig is more evenly distributed at least in the lowest kilometer. But because the storm motion greatly affects the couplet in base velocity, to issue a TOR it really helps to have an indication of rotation in the reflectivity and to look at SRV of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 NAM still hitting at tornado potential tomorrow. A high shear/low CAPE setup. The best kinematic support appears to be across Massachusetts, closest to the wave of low pressure. Here's an 18z FRI sounding for ORH: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 The NAM is on crack - it's blowing up that LLJ out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 The NAM is on crack - it's blowing up that LLJ out of nowhere. Certainly much more amped up than the GFS, despite the two models looking similar overall with the upper air pattern. Will still be interesting to see how the 12z GFS handles it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Certainly much more amped up than the GFS, despite the two models looking similar overall with the upper air pattern. Will still be interesting to see how the 12z GFS handles it. Yeah obviously the NAM has some serious convective feedback going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Nice helicity! With congress recessing tomorrow perhaps we can get a last minute EML to help out with the horrific lapse rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Yeah obviously the NAM has some serious convective feedback going on. Looks like it, with the model continuously blowing up a 3hr precip max of over 1" for several runs now, while several of even the SREF members show much lighter amounts. Obviously the Euro and GFS are also showing much lower precipitation amounts. EDIT: The 12z GFS looks a little more impressive, but still nothing as crazy as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 8, 2013 Author Share Posted August 8, 2013 Nice helicity! With congress recessing tomorrow perhaps we can get a last minute EML to help out with the horrific lapse rates? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 From BOX:FEEL ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN A HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT. COULD SEE ROTATION WITH STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SPIN-UP MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED. FEEL ACTIVITY WILL GET INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 From BOX: FEEL ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN A HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT. COULD SEE ROTATION WITH STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SPIN-UP MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED. FEEL ACTIVITY WILL GET INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. Is there a disconnect between SPC and BOX ? This kind of wordage might lend to a "Slight" at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Is there a disconnect between SPC and BOX ? This kind of wordage might lend to a "Slight" at least. I think any coverage will be pretty limited though. There is an area with enlongated hodographs this afternoon and early evening across N CT and W MA. Certainly worth watching if any mesocyclones can spin on up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 RAP forecast STP values for 6 p.m. A bubble of 1.0+ where there's some decent overlap between elevated MLCAPE and SRH: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 I think any coverage will be pretty limited though. There is an area with enlongated hodographs this afternoon and early evening across N CT and W MA. Certainly worth watching if any mesocyclones can spin on up. And I wonder if that stripe is just normally there for SW gradients. Seems the wind needs to bend around oriographic features out that way, anyway -- but you'd know more about that local-studies out that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 18z NAM is lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 18z NAM is lol. 6 inch amounts for all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 6 inch amounts for all? Oh I didn't even look at QPF - but the setup would give Wiz a heart attack. Looks like the NAM is generating a convectively induced LLJ that just rips across SNE. That would be a pretty significant tornado threat if it verified but I'm not counting on it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Oh I didn't even look at QPF - but the setup would give Wiz a heart attack. Looks like the NAM is generating a convectively induced LLJ that just rips across SNE. That would be a pretty significant tornado threat if it verified but I'm not counting on it lol. The SPC WRF generates a lot of morning QPF. Not sure how believable it is, but I wonder of its LLJ induced. If that were to happen..would be interesting for sure...but it seems too bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Egh, looks like our deck hangout's in jeopardy tomorrow night ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Oh I didn't even look at QPF - but the setup would give Wiz a heart attack. Looks like the NAM is generating a convectively induced LLJ that just rips across SNE. That would be a pretty significant tornado threat if it verified but I'm not counting on it lol. Gotta love the NAM, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Oh I didn't even look at QPF - but the setup would give Wiz a heart attack. Looks like the NAM is generating a convectively induced LLJ that just rips across SNE. That would be a pretty significant tornado threat if it verified but I'm not counting on it lol. I agree. I wrote about this earlier that I thought the whole evolution might be a bit fed-back. Usually MCS/convection doesn't force the synoptic hand - so to speak - at it "seems" that's what the NAM is trying to do. But wow -- what a sick short duration flood thread that would be for SE NY through western MA and SW NH, to go along with the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 The SPC WRF generates a lot of morning QPF. Not sure how believable it is, but I wonder of its LLJ induced. If that were to happen..would be interesting for sure...but it seems too bullish. doesn't the WRF run off the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Severe cell near the CT border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 It's as if there is a shield around Southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Just checking from my phone, but 18z GFS has appeared to trend stronger with a LLJ over rhe region tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Just checking from my phone, but 18z GFS has appeared to trend stronger with a LLJ over rhe region tomorrow. Indeed it does. I think there is a definite tornado potential tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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