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Aug 8th-10th Severe Wx

free_man

By free_man,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I'm suprised there's not more talk of the overall impact of the coming days outside of severe (qpf/flood possibility?).  Things look prime for some heavy downpours.  I  don't see much of that posted here or in the pinned thread, so maybe I'm really misreading things.

 

I mentioned this yesterday. Dual SOS. Ryan = Sultan of Spinners. We know who the other SOS is.

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

another Meh

It's looking more and more like that to me.

 

Could be a marginal threat early tomorrow with the warm front and then perhaps something Friday morning, but the timing is off and more importantly, the best dynamics appear to be displaced too far north. Another SNE failjob.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

The GFS has sped up the front and the wave along the front... the whole thing looks a bit more progressive. Better news for Saturday but a more limited severe threat on Friday.

 

Still could see an interesting storm Friday morning near/just south of the triple point. Sort of looks like one of those mornings where all hell breaks loose on Long Island with a few mesocylones spinning off the Ocean.  

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

The GFS has sped up the front and the wave along the front... the whole thing looks a bit more progressive. Better news for Saturday but a more limited severe threat on Friday.

 

Still could see an interesting storm Friday morning near/just south of the triple point. Sort of looks like one of those mornings where all hell breaks loose on Long Island with a few mesocylones spinning off the Ocean.  

GFS lifted indicies are far more impressive than the NAM for Friday. Seeing some up to -6°C near the shore.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Pretty incredible QLCS and tornadoes last night near Green Bay WI. Looks like NWS dropped the ball with tornado warnings - radar showed a pretty classic TDS for a while and no warning was out. The entire thing was trucking... nearly 100 mph! Check out the radar and damage pics if you can. 

 

 

post-40-0-32107600-1375909658_thumb.png

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
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Wow, impressive. Those QLCS are sneaky dangerous. Fast moving and spin up out of nowhere. Radar operator nightmare.

 

I'm guessing they weren't really prepared/ready for it. There were a few long track tornadoes in there (2 with TDSs) that should have been warned. 

 

But yeah - at 100 mph at time for forward speed you've gotta be on the top of your game and ready for it. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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I'm guessing they weren't really prepared/ready for it. There were a few long track tornadoes in there (2 with TDSs) that should have been warned. 

 

But yeah - at 100 mph at time for forward speed you've gotta be on the top of your game and ready for it. 

 

You think about something moving that quick......wow. That's probably all right side damage if you know what I'm saying. 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
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You think about something moving that quick......wow. That's probably all right side damage if you know what I'm saying. 

 

Oh yeah - one of the velocity scans had something like 100 knots inbound on one side and 10 knots inbound on the other... lol

 

That would make a damage survey interesting lol. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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Oh yeah - one of the velocity scans had something like 100 knots inbound on one side and 10 knots inbound on the other... lol

 

That would make a damage survey interesting lol. 

 

I was on one in Princeton, IL back in 2009 (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dvn&storyid=29928&source=2).

 

Some of it may be subtle, but at the same time it's pretty obvious when you consider the overall set up. If winds are really 80+ mph, then damage should all be very clearly in one direction, and a tornado would be convergent.

 

For instance, this survey featured sheet metal laying in the field behind the blown down barn (back to the west), boards were driven into the adjacent garage facing in a northwest direction (funny that I'm just noticing my own typo that says northeast in the picture 4 years later), and mud splatter on the east side of the farm house. To get debris lofted back to the west out of a west-to-east QLCS and to see mud splattered under the eaves on the side of the house that should have been sheltered from the wind, that pointed towards rotational velocities.

 

I think the key, though, with fast storm motions is the convergence downstream. You'll see a big blow down with trees all layed out in a similar fashion. However, if a tornado rips through that larger wind damage area you'll see trees and debris dragged forward and towards each other. You can mentally picture it if a tornado was ripping along at 50+ mph, that debris behind it in the wake would be getting dragged along for the ride (but convergent relative to other damage). In my case here, the best example was the grain bin that was destroyed. All that debris ended up dragged across the road and into the field.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I was on one in Princeton, IL back in 2009 (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dvn&storyid=29928&source=2).

 

Some of it may be subtle, but at the same time it's pretty obvious when you consider the overall set up. If winds are really 80+ mph, then damage should all be very clearly in one direction, and a tornado would be convergent.

 

For instance, this survey featured sheet metal laying in the field behind the blown down barn (back to the west), boards were driven into the adjacent garage facing in a northwest direction (funny that I'm just noticing my own typo that says northeast in the picture 4 years later), and mud splatter on the east side of the farm house. To get debris lofted back to the west out of a west-to-east QLCS and to see mud splattered under the eaves on the side of the house that should have been sheltered from the wind, that pointed towards rotational velocities.

 

I think the key, though, with fast storm motions is the convergence downstream. You'll see a big blow down with trees all layed out in a similar fashion. However, if a tornado rips through that larger wind damage area you'll see trees and debris dragged forward and towards each other. You can mentally picture it if a tornado was ripping along at 50+ mph, that debris behind it in the wake would be getting dragged along for the ride (but convergent relative to other damage). In my case here, the best example was the grain bin that was destroyed. All that debris ended up dragged across the road and into the field.

 

Yeah - I guess the "convergent" damage pattern is really the key. There were a number of TDSs on various parts of the QLCS - if you have time at work pull it up. Unfortunately almost all of them occurred with no TOR in place. I'm guessing based on the SPC forecast and the 00z sounding (which was impressively sheared but instability was pretty meh... only 1300 j/kg) they totally weren't staffed/prepared for/thinking about a widespread severe and tornado outbreak?

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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Yeah - I guess the "convergent" damage pattern is really the key. There were a number of TDSs on various parts of the QLCS - if you have time at work pull it up. Unfortunately almost all of them occurred with no TOR in place. I'm guessing based on the SPC forecast and the 00z sounding (which was impressively sheared but instability was pretty meh... only 1300 j/kg) they totally weren't staffed/prepared for/thinking about a widespread severe and tornado outbreak?

 

It's a tough warning environment too, because many times you see the signature and can't get a warning out in time before it lifts. And at that point is the tornado really the most immediate threat, or the 80 mph winds from the QLCS? I can see the argument for a strongly worded SVR with the call to action that tornadoes can and will occur on the leading edge. It will never happen because of the perception that because it is a tornado it is therefore more dangerous (but a 90 mph wind is a 90 mph regardless of rotation). Sort of like naming a tropical low pressure garners more buzz than a Feb 2010 nor'easter, despite similar wind speeds.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

It's a tough warning environment too, because many times you see the signature and can't get a warning out in time before it lifts. And at that point is the tornado really the most immediate threat, or the 80 mph winds from the QLCS? I can see the argument for a strongly worded SVR with the call to action that tornadoes can and will occur on the leading edge. It will never happen because of the perception that because it is a tornado it is therefore more dangerous (but a 90 mph wind is a 90 mph regardless of rotation). Sort of like naming a tropical low pressure garners more buzz than a Feb 2010 nor'easter, despite similar wind speeds.

 

Oh definitely... QLCSs are a nightmare for warning operations. This one was sort of interesting in that you had one relatively long lasting embedded supercell (with a TDS and TS for about 30 minutes from what I saw) that was unwarned... with at times a delta v of nearly 90 knots. 

 

I've seen a lot of cases where much weaker embedded vorticies are warned like the forecaster is handing out candy at halloween so it's a real tough balance... I'm not sure what the answer is because you're right the strongly worded SVR should be sufficient. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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Oh definitely... QLCSs are a nightmare for warning operations. This one was sort of interesting in that you had one relatively long lasting embedded supercell (with a TDS and TS for about 30 minutes from what I saw) that was unwarned... with at times a delta v of nearly 90 knots. 

 

I've seen a lot of cases where much weaker embedded vorticies are warned like the forecaster is handing out candy at halloween so it's a real tough balance... I'm not sure what the answer is because you're right the strongly worded SVR should be sufficient. 

 

And that's the rub really, you can't avoid issuing the TOR because what if it ends up being a sustained TVS? Can you really feel comfortable waiting for the next volume scan when a tornado could be on the ground? I wouldn't.

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free_man

free_man

Posted
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...NORTHEAST TO OH VALLEY...
AREAS OF ONGOING STORMS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD MITIGATE MORE
ROBUST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A PLUME OF 60S TO LOWER 70S
SURFACE DEW POINTS EXISTING IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
STALLING/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...POCKETS OF GREATER INSOLATION SHOULD YIELD MODEST BUOYANCY
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PROPENSITY
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY GREATER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST/WRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE 30-35 KT 500 MB WLYS WILL
RESIDE WHICH COULD FOSTER MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND/SEVERE HAIL.

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