free_man Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Most damaging severe wx of the summer incoming, perhaps another Tollnado in the cards? Setup does look pretty decent for this time-range and has some OMS besides the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 PLEASEEEEEEEEEE let this happen. This year has been AWFUL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Only 1 whole week to hold this together. What could go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 GFS looks very interesting for Thursday - Euro not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Only 1 whole week to hold this together. What could go wrong? This thread is equiv of a 248 hr snow storm prog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 4, 2013 Share Posted August 4, 2013 1 week left in the period, 1 week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 4, 2013 Author Share Posted August 4, 2013 Won't even see a thunderstorm from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 4, 2013 Share Posted August 4, 2013 The forecast is obviously going to evolve, but there actually could be some potential during this time frame. Per Euro: First shortwave swings through mid-week to bring some higher dews into the area. A second, more potential shortwave moves north of the area by Saturday. Cloud-cover and (lack of) destabilization could be limiting factors and we won't really know clear details until we get a few days closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Still chances for severe Thursday/Friday. 18z GFS is quite ominous for Friday with spinner threat. Still a couple days to figure out the details... models still struggling with the synoptic basics so it will take time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Friday does look quite interesting but lapse rates look like they will be complete crap. With that said though llvl shear is pretty strong with pretty long and curved hodo's so some low topped spinups are certainly in play here. could be similar to the day several weeks back where CT had 3 tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Friday does look quite interesting but lapse rates look like they will be complete crap. With that said though llvl shear is pretty strong with pretty long and curved hodo's so some low topped spinups are certainly in play here. could be similar to the day several weeks back where CT had 3 tornadoes. Nothing about Thursday/Friday is going to be a high CAPE situation. It will be low instability with high shear so we'll have to watch how things evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Friday does look quite interesting but . Their is almost always a but in new eng svr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Their is almost always a but in new eng svr Friday looks interesting... but this is New England, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Nothing about Thursday/Friday is going to be a high CAPE situation. It will be low instability with high shear so we'll have to watch how things evolve. I remember back in 1998's summer, in June, there was a night where there was pig mechanics and like perfunctory CAPE, yet there were numerous (at the time) F0 and F1 spinners in swarms of broken bands of thunder. I think there was one F2. Could be like that with such fast flow aloft and good bulk helicity. Not saying that it's an analog but one thing this has is that it's day-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 I remember back in 1998's summer, in June, there was a night where there was pig mechanics and like perfunctory CAPE, yet there were numerous (at the time) F0 and F1 spinners in swarms of broken bands of thunder. I think there was one F2. Could be like that with such fast flow aloft and good bulk helicity. Not saying that it's an analog but one thing this has is that it's day-time. I think that event though dealt with much steeper lapse rates which probably lead to more instability than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Euro still kind of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 If this were to verify, I think Wiz would be at least a little excited... 6z NAM for 15z FRI in northeastern RI: Courtesy: Twisterdata Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 The NAM has a spurious convectively induced low Friday morning, although all models have a weak low at that time....NAM just up to its old tricks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 The NAM has a spurious convectively induced low Friday morning, although all models have a weak low at that time....NAM just up to its old tricks. A few of the SREF members blow up a low on Thursday too. The high resolution models are having a tough time trying to figure out the evolution here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 NAM/GFS continue with a tornado threat on Friday. Some thunderstorm threat Thursday afternoon as well... but I don't see a widespread severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Are we going to clear by Saturday morning? I'm all for a Thunderstorm threat on Thurs/Friday, but I'm hoping it's flushed out of here by Sat AM. I heard the Euro was the slowest with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Are we going to clear by Saturday morning? I'm all for a Thunderstorm threat on Thurs/Friday, but I'm hoping it's flushed out of here by Sat AM. I heard the Euro was the slowest with the front. Very iffy. I think it may be tough for you in SE MA to be cleared out...might even be a few shwrs still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 NAM/GFS continue with a tornado threat on Friday. Some thunderstorm threat Thursday afternoon as well... but I don't see a widespread severe threat. The NAM is very impressive with the tornado threat, especially for SW New England and back into NY, but it took a big jog NW from the last run with the low pressure track. We'll see some more waffling with details, but overall I'd definitely keep an eye on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 The NAM is very impressive with the tornado threat, especially for SW New England and back into NY, but it took a big jog NW from the last run with the low pressure track. We'll see some more waffling with details, but overall I'd definitely keep an eye on Friday. NAM is bogus though with its SLP depiction - with a spurious/convective feedback LLJ so it's tough to take seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Very iffy. I think it may be tough for you in SE MA to be cleared out...might even be a few shwrs still. Alright thanks. I'll be up in Canton so hopefully that helps out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 I'll be in Saratoga, NY starting Thursday-Saturday betting on the ponies! Will this junk be out of there by Thursday night? It seems that the front keeps slowing down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 The GFS is quite impressive with shear on Friday so if we can manage any instability watch out for any discrete cells! Soundings though do show a pesky warm layer up around 15K which could be another limiting factor...just something else to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 18z oper. GFS' synoptic appeal cleaned things up a bit. Looks okay for convection on both Thursday and Friday, with more mechanics perhaps on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 NAM has a sneaky spinner threat for NYC/Long Island/S coast of SNE around 12z Thursday near the warm front??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 NAM has a sneaky spinner threat for NYC/Long Island/S coast of SNE around 12z Thursday near the warm front??? Kevin hacked your account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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