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August 2013 Observations And Discussions


bluewave

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
258 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY...
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

* AT 257 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS FROM 3
NM SOUTHWEST OF STRATFORD SHOAL TO 4 NM SOUTHEAST OF HUNTINGTON
BAY...MOVING EAST AT 30 KT.

* THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SMITHTOWN BAY AROUND 305 PM...
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR AROUND 315 PM...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM
PASSES.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS.

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Another bust for eastern areas. Seems like the models have been having this problem all summer long.

 

Noticing some fall colors on the trees already, particularly the Norway Maples. Leaves are turning yellow, red, and orange. Probably caused by the drier than normal conditions and recent cooler weather. 

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Another bust for eastern areas. Seems like the models have been having this problem all summer long.

 

Noticing some fall colors on the trees already, particularly the Norway Maples. Leaves are turning yellow, red, and orange. Probably caused by the drier than normal conditions and recent cooler weather. 

 

The North Shore has seen most of the Long Island action this summer.

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It's real weird how we have not had any severe threats at all this summer. Have not even been in a warning since last July

 

Yeah, it's been really quiet around our area compared to what we usually see by this time of the year.

 

 

 

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Guest Pamela

The North Shore has seen most of the Long Island action this summer.

Mt Sinai / Port Jeff cooperative with 0.62 inches of rain today and some more on our doorstep.

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The Euro ensemble mean is finally starting to show the WAR beginning to build west again

from around 8-20 on. So I think that the coolest daily departures for the month will

be over by then. The average split for Central Park during the last 10 days of

August is 81-66. So I think that we'll see several +5 or greater daily departure days.

 

 

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Some positive departures 8/8 - 8/10 bringing the monthly totals to -2 to -3.  Looks like we'll add some more negatives 8/12 - 8/16  (peaking 8/13 - 8/15) before moderating back towards and above normal between  8/17  and  8/20.  Guidance still hinting that the last week of august we could see a return of some heat and stronger positive departures on/around 8/22.

 

 

EWR:

8/8:  84/70 (+1)

8/9: 88/74 (+4)

 

NYC:

8/8: 81/70 (+0)

8/9: 85/74 (+4)

 

LGA:

8/8:  83/71 (0)

8/9: 89/74 (+5)

 

JFK:

8/8: 81/70 (+0)

8/9: 82/74 (+4)

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Another bust for eastern areas. Seems like the models have been having this problem all summer long.

 

Noticing some fall colors on the trees already, particularly the Norway Maples. Leaves are turning yellow, red, and orange. Probably caused by the drier than normal conditions and recent cooler weather. 

 

The trees are definitly stressing. It has been super dry all summer on the south shore. Other then some rain Thursday night we had exactly 3 drops of rain yesterday in Wantagh.The cold front went through with a wind shift and nothing else... This after a 6 inch day in May. Feast or famine.

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The trees are definitly stressing. It has been super dry all summer on the south shore. Other then some rain Thursday night we had exactly 3 drops of rain yesterday in Wantagh.The cold front went through with a wind shift and nothing else... This after a 6 inch day in May. Feast or famine.

 

Yeah, only had 0.43" on the 8th and that was it. Got nothing yesterday even though the models were still showing it all day yesterday. Was going to go fishing yesterday, decided not to because I thought it was going to rain. It never did.

 

I got a little less than 2 1/2" of rain in July, which isn't terrible. But if you want to keep things green, you're going to need more rain than that, especially in the summer months. Long Island's micro-climate amazes me. Could be the wettest month on record on the north shore and driest month on record on the south shore, that would be pretty odd.

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Yeah, only had 0.43" on the 8th and that was it. Got nothing yesterday even though the models were still showing it all day yesterday. Was going to go fishing yesterday, decided not to because I thought it was going to rain. It never did.

 

I got a little less than 2 1/2" of rain in July, which isn't terrible. But if you want to keep things green, you're going to need more rain than that, especially in the summer months. Long Island's micro-climate amazes me. Could be the wettest month on record on the north shore and driest month on record on the south shore, that would be pretty odd.

 

This all makes sense earlier in the season when water temps are lower and thus the sea breeze is more pronounced. What is strange is this time of year the sea breeze and its associated more stable air shouldnt be as big of an issue and we should have seen the front and storms charge rght off the coast but no not yesterday. Honestly I think allot of it is bad luck lately,

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The Euro ensemble mean is finally starting to show the WAR beginning to build west again

from around 8-20 on. So I think that the coolest daily departures for the month will

be over by then. The average split for Central Park during the last 10 days of

August is 81-66. So I think that we'll see several +5 or greater daily departure days.

 

attachicon.gifGeopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_120.gif

 

attachicon.gifGeopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240.gif

 

 

You got to it before I did, was just going to post this. The ECMWF ensembles which saw the August cool are now beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel w/ the retrograding WAR post 8/20. We'll have to see if the 12z ECM continues with that idea or it gets pushed back further, but over the past few weeks I've thought the last week of August would feature rapid warming in the Northeast, ultimately leading to the mean ridge position over the NE for the month of September. Long range guidance seems to suggest that right now. Even still, it's the ECMWF ensembles at 240hrs so I'd like to see another cycle or two of the WAR returning around / slightly after 8/20.

 

Prior to that time, a significant autumnal airmass heads for the Northeast 8/13-8/17 of this week, with 850mb temps near or below +10c for most northeast of DCA. Probably going to see a couple days or more with highs remaining in the 70s and lows in the 50s for suburbia (maybe 40s for far off suburbs). NYC does worse in radiational cooling regimes so they'll probably remain in the 60s. I expect most of the Northeast to have fairly significant negative departures going into the final 10 days of August. Those negatives will come up somewhat but not enough to make August normal or above normal IMO.

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