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August 2013 Observations And Discussions

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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tmagan

tmagan

Posted
Posted

Light shower here in Port Jefferson. Been cloudy all day with bulky looking cumulus which made it more comfortable but which finally sprang a shower.

The sea breeze front sparked heavy showers over the middle of Long Island Sound, not something you often see.

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gkrangers

gkrangers

Posted
Posted

Looks a little dicey, as precipitation should be in the area and there's going to be a fairly strong SE/SSE flow which should bring humid but cool air in off the waters.  Should be plenty of cloud cover.  My thinking is, as long as the water temperatures are high enough, every day is a beach day, but your mileage may vary.  What beach were you looking at?

 

Not sure.  Was considering taking the LIRR out to Long Beach (never been -- is it rebuilt enough to make the trip worthwhile? Bars? Food? Beach?) or NJT down to Belmar for the day.  I think I'll likely hold off though.  I'm off on Wednesday through August, and perhaps next week will feature better weather.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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Not sure.  Was considering taking the LIRR out to Long Beach (never been -- is it rebuilt enough to make the trip worthwhile? Bars? Food? Beach?) or NJT down to Belmar for the day.  I think I'll likely hold off though.  I'm off on Wednesday through August, and perhaps next week will feature better weather.

 

You will like Long Beach. The new boardwalk recently reopened in the center of town where you would walk down 

from the train down to the beach. There are several great restaurants on Park right across form the station.

My personal favorite restaurant is Gino's Italian directly across from the train station. They have also brought in

food trucks which are parked down by the boardwalk. The Allegria Hotel has a nice bar and restaurant 

located right at National and the beach. They offer a ticket and beach pass deal which is nice on

a good beach day. There is also a great Japanese restaurant about 2 blocks east of the station

called Nagahama. Sutton place is also a nice bar and grill about i block west of the LIRR.

 

http://liherald.static3.adqic.com/uploads/original/1374870986_7811.jpg

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gkrangers

gkrangers

Posted
Posted

You will like Long Beach. The new boardwalk recently reopened in the center of town where you would walk down 

from the train down to the beach. There are several great restaurants on Park right across form the station.

My personal favorite restaurant is Gino's Italian directly across from the train station. They have also brought in

food trucks which are parked down by the boardwalk. The Allegria Hotel has a nice bar and restaurant 

located right at National and the beach. They offer a ticket and beach pass deal which is nice on

a good beach day. There is also a great Japanese restaurant about 2 blocks east of the station

called Nagahama. Sutton place is also a nice bar and grill about i block west of the LIRR.

 

http://liherald.static3.adqic.com/uploads/original/1374870986_7811.jpg

Any good oyster places out there?

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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Posted

Any good oyster places out there?

 

There is the Whale's tail down in the West End, but I never ate there before. Oysters are one of the few foods that I have

not sampled in the area, so I can't speak to the quality. Peter's Clam Bar is another spot that people

go to which is located a few miles north in Island Park. I haven't gone there myself either.

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Touched down in Tampa a short while ago and on way to Sanibel.  A quick look at the latest guidance with slow trend with less of a deep trough early next week and continued hints the second half of august moderates and perhaps ends on a more hotter tone.  Im picking up good vibrations for late summer resurgance. 

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Day 14 of the Cooldown

 

EWR:

7/24: 84/68 (-2)

7/25: 68/62 (-12)

7/26: 85/66 (-2)

7/27: 84/67 (-2)

7/28: 80/69 (-2)

7/29: 87/70 (+2)

7/30: 83/65 (-2)

7/31: 83/66 (-3)

8/1: 75/68 (-5)

8/2: 87/67 (+1)

8/3: 80/69 (-2)

8/4: 82/64 (-4)

8/5: 80/62 (-6)

8/6: 81/61 (-6)

 

 

NYC:

7/24: 83/68 (-1)

7/25: 68/64 (-11)

7/26: 83/65 (-3)

7/27: 82/70 (-1)

7/28: 78/70 (-3)

7/29: 85/69 (0)

7/30: 83/67 (-2)

7/31: 8/3 / 67 (-2)

8/1: 76/66 (-6)

8/2: 83/67 (-2)

8/3: 78/68 (-3)

8/4: 80/66 (-3)

8/5: 78/62 (-6)

8/6: 82/64 (-3)

 

LGA:

7/24: 83/69 (-2)

7/25: 70/64 (-11)

7/26: 84/65 (-3)

7/27: 84/71 (0)

7/28: 82/71 (-1)

7/29: 89/71 (+2)

7/30: 82/70 (-2)

7/31: 82/71 (-1)

8/1: 79/69 (-4)

8/2: 86/70 (+0)

8/3: 80/71 (-2)

8/4: 81/69 (-3)

8/5: 79/64 (-6)

8/6: 82/67 (-2)

 

 

JFK:

7/24: 88/70 (+3)

7/25: 70/63 (-9)

7/26: 84/64 (-2)

7/27: 81/68 (-1)

7/28: 78/68 (-3)

7/29: 84/73 (+2)

7/30: 85/67 (+0)

7/31: 82/68 (-1)

8/1: 77/68 (-3)

8/2: 85/68 (+1)

8/3: 78/70 (-2)

8/4:  83/67 (-1)

8/5: 80/64 (-4)

8/6: 80/64 (-4)

 

 

New brunswick:

7/24: 83/64 (-2)

7/25: 69/65 (-9)

7/26: 84/65 (0)

7/27: 86/64 (0)

7/28: 84/65(0)

7/29: 87/57 (-3)

7/30: 84/58 (-4)

7/31: 83/68 (+1)

8/1: 72/63 (-7)

8/2: 86/64 (+0)

8/3: 79/59 (-5)

8/4: 81/54 (-7)

8/5: 81/56 (-6)

8/6:  82/63 (-2)

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Wxoutlooksblog

Wxoutlooksblog

Posted
Posted

Touched down in Tampa a short while ago and on way to Sanibel.  A quick look at the latest guidance with slow trend with less of a deep trough early next week and continued hints the second half of august moderates and perhaps ends on a more hotter tone.  Im picking up good vibrations for late summer resurgance. 

All the models have trended warmer as we go into the second half with WAR gradually building westward. Agree.

WX/PT

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Wxoutlooksblog

Wxoutlooksblog

Posted
Posted

I think the big question is the transitional stage timing of the change back to a ridge here in the east with a good surface high in place. 12Z models yesterday at first had a poor surface set-up with weak high pressure parking over northern New England and then off the New England coast feeding se flow of abundant moisture into the picture. In fact, 12Z GFS yesterday had rain almost everyday of its run from the beginning of next week onward. The 00Z runs was much drier with stronger high pressure over Maine for a prolonged period before it built sw-ward switching our winds here to the sw and suppressing moisture to our south for most of the run. The details, transition, and timing of the return to the warmer pattern yet to be determined.

WX/PT

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

All the models have trended warmer as we go into the second half with WAR gradually building westward. Agree.

WX/PT

 

 

Still think we have a brief period of some 90 degree readings in the warmer spots Sat if we get enough sun. 

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Touched down in Tampa a short while ago and on way to Sanibel.  A quick look at the latest guidance with slow trend with less of a deep trough early next week and continued hints the second half of august moderates and perhaps ends on a more hotter tone.  Im picking up good vibrations for late summer resurgance. 

 

 

I think the big question is the transitional stage timing of the change back to a ridge here in the east with a good surface high in place. 12Z models yesterday at first had a poor surface set-up with weak high pressure parking over northern New England and then off the New England coast feeding se flow of abundant moisture into the picture. In fact, 12Z GFS yesterday had rain almost everyday of its run from the beginning of next week onward. The 00Z runs was much drier with stronger high pressure over Maine for a prolonged period before it built sw-ward switching our winds here to the sw and suppressing moisture to our south for most of the run. The details, transition, and timing of the return to the warmer pattern yet to be determined.

WX/PT

 

 

Looking at the 12z guidance, I think next week's 11th-16th shot of cool air into the Northeast will probably be the strongest of the month, before we begin to back off for the last 10 days of August. I agree with Sacrus that this Saturday may sneak above normal, though most of us should top out in the mid/upper 80s with maybe EWR hitting 90 if they're lucky. 12Z ECMWF brings +10c 850mb air down into the mid atlantic by the middle part of next week, so we will probably see another string of days -5 to -10 after this near normal period today-Saturday. Beyond August 20th, the large scale trough does look to weaken but I don't see us really torching until possibly the end of the month.

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sutherlandfan

sutherlandfan

Posted
Posted

Looking at the 12z guidance, I think next week's 11th-16th shot of cool air into the Northeast will probably be the strongest of the month, before we begin to back off for the last 10 days of August. I agree with Sacrus that this Saturday may sneak above normal, though most of us should top out in the mid/upper 80s with maybe EWR hitting 90 if they're lucky. 12Z ECMWF brings +10c 850mb air down into the mid atlantic by the middle part of next week, so we will probably see another string of days -5 to -10 after this near normal period today-Saturday. Beyond August 20th, the large scale trough does look to weaken but I don't see us really torching until possibly the end of the month.

Appreciate the posts, being that the models (GFS and Euro) only go out 384 hrs how do you guys see this warm up end of month? Im new to watching models and trying to understand the rationale.  Are we assuming that currently we are going through the same pattern as we saw in June? And toward the end of the month we should return to the pattern seen in July?  Thanks. 

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

theme of the summer...unless you're well south and west of NYC which has seen some heavy rains this summer generally speaking

Our area sw of NYC has done pretty well with rain. We had a inch last Thursday and .25 the Saturday after. This is the first summer I can remember since 09 I think, that we did not get a stretch where the lawns burnt out.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

By the end of the month our averages are only slightly above 80, so mid-to upper 80's can be called a torch especially past Labor day

Mid to upper 80s is not a torch in late August/early September. We frequently hit those numbers at that time of the year. The word "torch" implies unusual or anomalous heat and I don't think that qualifies as it's quite common to see one last stretch nearing 90F after Labor Day before autumn arrives. 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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Posted

Late summer heat since 2000 hasn't been impressive by historical standards.

 

Years with a 95 degree or higher temperature from 8/20 on at Newark:

 

2010

2005

1995

1993

1991

1989

1983

1980

1973

1964

1961

1959

1955

1953

 

Year of highest Newark temperature after 8-20:

 

1953....105

1948....103

1993....100

1983.....99

2010.....98

 

 

NYC longest heatwave

 

Newark max of 105

 

 

12

August 24 - Sept 4, 1953

91,91,91,94,98,99,98,100,97,102,94,90

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Day 15 of the Cooldown - shuould moderate back to and above normal today thru sat before next cooldown which should peak 8/13 - 8/15. 

 

EWR:

7/24: 84/68 (-2)

7/25: 68/62 (-12)

7/26: 85/66 (-2)

7/27: 84/67 (-2)

7/28: 80/69 (-2)

7/29: 87/70 (+2)

7/30: 83/65 (-2)

7/31: 83/66 (-3)

8/1: 75/68 (-5)

8/2: 87/67 (+1)

8/3: 80/69 (-2)

8/4: 82/64 (-4)

8/5: 80/62 (-6)

8/6: 81/61 (-6)

8/7:  80/69 (-2)

 

 

NYC:

7/24: 83/68 (-1)

7/25: 68/64 (-11)

7/26: 83/65 (-3)

7/27: 82/70 (-1)

7/28: 78/70 (-3)

7/29: 85/69 (0)

7/30: 83/67 (-2)

7/31: 8/3 / 67 (-2)

8/1: 76/66 (-6)

8/2: 83/67 (-2)

8/3: 78/68 (-3)

8/4: 80/66 (-3)

8/5: 78/62 (-6)

8/6: 82/64 (-3)

8/7: 80/70 (-1)

 

LGA:

7/24: 83/69 (-2)

7/25: 70/64 (-11)

7/26: 84/65 (-3)

7/27: 84/71 (0)

7/28: 82/71 (-1)

7/29: 89/71 (+2)

7/30: 82/70 (-2)

7/31: 82/71 (-1)

8/1: 79/69 (-4)

8/2: 86/70 (+0)

8/3: 80/71 (-2)

8/4: 81/69 (-3)

8/5: 79/64 (-6)

8/6: 82/67 (-2)

8/7: 82/72 (+0)

 

 

JFK:

7/24: 88/70 (+3)

7/25: 70/63 (-9)

7/26: 84/64 (-2)

7/27: 81/68 (-1)

7/28: 78/68 (-3)

7/29: 84/73 (+2)

7/30: 85/67 (+0)

7/31: 82/68 (-1)

8/1: 77/68 (-3)

8/2: 85/68 (+1)

8/3: 78/70 (-2)

8/4: 83/67 (-1)

8/5: 80/64 (-4)

8/6: 80/64 (-4)

8/7: 80/70 (-1)

 

 

New Brunswick:

7/24: 83/64 (-2)

7/25: 69/65 (-9)

7/26: 84/65 (0)

7/27: 86/64 (0)

7/28: 84/65(0)

7/29: 87/57 (-3)

7/30: 84/58 (-4)

7/31: 83/68 (+1)

8/1: 72/63 (-7)

8/2: 86/64 (+0)

8/3: 79/59 (-5)

8/4: 81/54 (-7)

8/5: 81/56 (-6)

8/6: 82/63 (-2)

8/7: 80/64 (-2)

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

Late summer heat since 2000 hasn't been impressive by historical standards.

 

Years with a 95 degree or higher temperature from 8/20 on at Newark:

 

2010

2005

1995

1993

1991

1989

1983

1980

1973

1964

1961

1959

1955

1953

 

Year of highest Newark temperature after 8-20:

 

1953....105

1948....103

1993....100

1983.....99

2010.....98

 

 

NYC longest heatwave

 

Newark max of 105

 

 

12

August 24 - Sept 4, 1953

91,91,91,94,98,99,98,100,97,102,94,90

I was to young to remember 1953's heat wave but I remember 1973's heat wave from August 28th to September 4th...eight straight days in the mid 90's or higher...

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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Posted

I was to young to remember 1953's heat wave but I remember 1973's heat wave from August 28th to September 4th...eight straight days in the mid 90's or higher...

 

That 73 heat wave was the first on that I could remember as a 6 year old. Our family had no air conditioning at the time

and had to stay with relatives for the peak of that heat.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

That 73 heat wave was the first on that I could remember as a 6 year old. Our family had no air conditioning at the time

and had to stay with relatives for the peak of that heat.

I drove a cab in 1970 and remember the heat wave from September 22-26...No ac in the cabs back then...Driving in Manhattan was the pits...it wasn't an official heat wave but it was five days well above normal...

day...max...min

22.......94.....72

23.......93.....77

24.......89.....74

25.......90.....71

26.......91.....72

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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Posted

I drove a cab in 1970 and remember the heat wave from September 22-26...No ac in the cabs back then...Driving in Manhattan was the pits...it wasn't an official heat wave but it was five days well above normal...

day...max...min

22.......94.....72

23.......93.....77

24.......89.....74

25.......90.....71

26.......91.....72

 

Long Island had late season tornadoes on 9-18-73 and  9-27-70.

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