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August 2013 Observations And Discussions


bluewave

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The only years since 1995 that Newark hasn't made it to 90 between August 1-7 were

2004, 2003, 1998, and 1996. That makes the cool start this August even rarer

since those years were coming off a significantly cooler July than this year.

The last three hot Julys had 95+ heat the first week of August at Newark.

 

2012....95

2011....98

2010....96

 

 

NEWARK, NJ
PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY MOCLDY TSTRMS
/86 67/81 67/82 60/80 61/80 66/81 69/80

 

 

 

 


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End of the GFS Op (Aug 16th/17th) see some humidity coming back into the picture with some dewpoint readings into the 70's. Any chance we see temps returning into the 90's that time period, with the way the patterns look? We need one more heat spell before the Fall.

With a fall pattern a month early chances are slim for a 90 degree day. A few warm days with humidity is certainly possible but It's a very cool pattern setting in. This will likely be one of the chilliest Augusts for the nation.

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I won't rule out more days in the 90's...1964 had the coolest start to August on record but the last ten days were above average with four days 90 or higher...September had three with the last coming on Sept. 11th...other years had a day or two in the 90's after a cool start to August...

edit...

I could only find five years with no 90's after July 31st since 1934...

1934...

1950...

1963...

1982...

1986...

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I won't rule out more days in the 90's...1964 had the coolest start to August on record but the last ten days were above average with four days 90 or higher...September had three with the last coming on Sept. 11th...other years had a day or two in the 90's after a cool start to August...

edit...

I could only find five years with no 90's after July 31st since 1934...

1934...

1950...

1963...

1982...

1986...

Going all the way back to the beginning of NYC's history (1871) these are the years with no 90+ highs after July 31:

(throw out 1871 due to missing August temps)

1873

1880

1883

1887

1889

1902

1903

1904

1934

1950

1963

1982

1986

Over the entire history, the average last 90+ day is August 28th. In the current normals period the average last 90+ day is August 24th. NYC averages 3.2 and 0.6 90+ days in August and September respectively, if you believe the new normals.

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The Euro weeklies at least open the door to the possibility that Central Park won't see

any 90 degree reading this month. 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-forecast-clues-into-beginning-of-september-1/16045440

 

Just for fun, between 8/30-9/01, the Euro weeklies have 592dm ridge over the Central Plains, ULL over TN Valley, and strong tropical system off the SE Coast.

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Just for fun, between 8/30-9/01, the Euro weeklies have 592dm ridge over the Central Plains and strong tropical system off the SE Coast.

With the strong ridging forecasted to be over the plains, a persistent east coast trough and the WAR displaced to the east, the pattern should be favorable for recurving storms inside of Bermuda. Whether or not one actually gets up here is a long shot at best, and even then it's much more likely that we get a decaying system like an Irene where the primary threat would be inland flooding as opposed to a Sandy like impact. The last two falls have featured highly anomalous blocking episodes, so we'll see. 

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With the strong ridging forecasted to be over the plains, a persistent east coast trough and the WAR displaced to the east, the pattern should be favorable for recurving storms inside of Bermuda. Whether or not one actually gets up here is a long shot at best, and even then it's much more likely that we get a decaying system like an Irene where the primary threat would be inland flooding as opposed to a Sandy like impact. The last two falls have featured highly anomalous blocking episodes, so we'll see. 

The westerlies would have to be depressed well south of where they are now for a Sandy-like threat. There was a huge, abnormal block over eastern Newfoundland and a strong shortwave driving through the Midwest to phase into Sandy and make it into a hybrid monster low. A repeat of that is unlikely at very best.

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Going all the way back to the beginning of NYC's history (1871) these are the years with no 90+ highs after July 31:

(throw out 1871 due to missing August temps)

1873

1880

1883

1887

1889

1902

1903

1904

1934

1950

1963

1982

1986

Over the entire history, the average last 90+ day is August 28th. In the current normals period the average last 90+ day is August 24th. NYC averages 3.2 and 0.6 90+ days in August and September respectively, if you believe the new normals.

August 1871 averaged 73.6 in Central Park...how did they come to that figure?...1963, 1982 and 1986 were developing el nino years...the second half of August was cool in those years...this year doesn't have a developing el nino yet and probably be neutral or nina next winter...

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August 1871 averaged 73.6 in Central Park...how did they come to that figure?...1963, 1982 and 1986 were developing el nino years...the second half of August was cool in those years...this year doesn't have a developing el nino yet and probably be neutral or nina next winter...

Not sure where they got their numbers from. I assume you're looking at the page on OKX's site. I was using ACIS threaded and NCDC data which shows only July 1871 having any data, and then nothing before that. The web site's monthly averages are also slightly off up until 1912. OKX says the Central Park numbers are from the Arsenal Building from 1869-1919 so that may explain some of the discrepancies.

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Why? NYC averages 1 or 2 mornings <60 in August.

 

I believe the last time NYC dropped below 60 during the first 10 days of August was 2004. The last 2 times NYC

dropped under 60 in August was late in the month. It will be interesting to see if we get stuck at 60 or can make a 59.

 

CENTRAL PARK, NY

PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY MOCLDY MOCLDY SUNNY

68/82 66/81 60/78 63/80 65/80 67/84 70/86

 

8-29-11....59

8-22-08...58

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With a fall pattern a month early chances are slim for a 90 degree day. A few warm days with humidity is certainly possible but It's a very cool pattern setting in. This will likely be one of the chilliest Augusts for the nation.

 

Looks like the next shot at 90s could come between 8/8 - 8/10.   Looking at the ECM still a week away but gfs hinting similar heigh rise in this period between the next trough.  Suspect we see the coolest departures next week. 

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I believe the last time NYC dropped below 60 during the first 10 days of August was 2004. The last 2 times NYC

dropped under 60 in August was late in the month. It will be interesting to see if we get stuck at 60 or can make a 59.

 

CENTRAL PARK, NY

PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY MOCLDY MOCLDY SUNNY

68/82 66/81 60/78 63/80 65/80 67/84 70/86

 

8-29-11....59

8-22-08...58

 

 

8/10/2007:  72/57

8/11/2007: 81/57

came close 8/11/2008  73/59

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2007 has the coolest max for August when the high was 59 on 8/21...for the record the max/min's since 1876...

monthly and annual temperature extremes for Central Park...

.

August decade average's...monthly average...max/min...average max/min

decade....ave........max...min...ave.max/min..........................................................
1870's.....73.7.......na.....na.....na.....na
1880's.....72.0.......96.....50.....90.6.....54.2
1890's.....74.2.......98.....52.....92.8.....56.9
1900's.....73.8.......96.....54.....91.8.....58.1
1910's.....73.5.....104.....51.....93.8.....56.8
1920's.....73.0.......99.....51.....92.8.....55.3
1930's.....75.5.....100.....52.....94.9.....58.5
1940's.....74.5.....103.....52.....95.6.....55.4
1950's.....75.0.....100.....54.....93.4.....57.9
1960's.....74.6.......94.....50.....91.8.....56.2
1970's.....76.0.......98.....50.....94.2.....57.1
1980's.....75.9.......99.....50.....93.7.....57.2
1990's.....75.5.......98.....57.....93.3.....59.4
2000's.....75.9.....103.....56.....94.2.....60.0
2010's.....76.5.......96.....59.....93.7.....60.3

1870/1880-
2009 ave 74.5.....104.....50.....93.3.....57.2
1980-
2009 ave 75.8.....103.....50.....93.7.....58.9

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2007 has the coolest max for August when the high was 59 on 8/21...for the record the max/min's since 1876...

monthly and annual temperature extremes for Central Park...

.

August decade average's...monthly average...max/min...average max/min..........................................................

1870's.....73.7.......na.....na.....na.....na

1880's.....72.0.......96.....50.....90.6.....54.2

1890's.....74.2.......98.....52.....92.8.....56.9

1900's.....73.8.......96.....54.....91.8.....58.1

1910's.....73.5.....104.....51.....93.8.....56.8

1920's.....73.0.......99.....51.....92.8.....55.3

1930's.....75.5.....100.....52.....94.9.....58.5

1940's.....74.5.....103.....52.....95.6.....55.4

1950's.....75.0.....100.....54.....93.4.....57.9

1960's.....74.6.......94.....50.....91.8.....56.2

1970's.....76.0.......98.....50.....94.2.....57.1

1980's.....75.9.......99.....50.....93.7.....57.2

1990's.....75.5.......98.....57.....93.3.....59.4

2000's.....75.9.....103.....56.....94.2.....60.0

2010's.....76.5.......96.....59.....93.7.....60.3

1870/1880-

2009 ave 74.5.....104.....50.....93.3.....57.2

1980-

2009 ave 75.8.....103.....50.....93.7.....58.9

 

I remember that max on 8/21/07. There was Rain/Wind and I was a bit sick. The sky was dark and ominous at midday.

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Overnight guidance still offers the potential brief return of some heat/90 degree readings between fri 8/8 and sun 8/10.  Heights will rise ahead of the next front/trough and send surge of warmer air up into the northeast.  Pending on timing with the front and cloud cover we may see the next shot at 90s in what will be over 2 weeks by that time.  Beyond there trough remains between the lakes and northeast with strong weakness over eastern canada.   We'll see if we see any trends for a more sustainable warmup on today's guidance.  It wouldnt take much for a warm pattern to shift east later into the mid august and beyond.

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Overnight guidance still offers the potential brief return of some heat/90 degree readings between fri 8/8 and sun 8/10. Heights will rise ahead of the next front/trough and send surge of warmer air up into the northeast. Pending on timing with the front and cloud cover we may see the next shot at 90s in what will be over 2 weeks by that time. Beyond there trough remains between the lakes and northeast with strong weakness over eastern canada. We'll see if we see any trends for a more sustainable warmup on today's guidance. It wouldnt take much for a warm pattern to shift east later into the mid august and beyond.

90's are done for 2013.
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dates for the last 90 degree day in NYC...

1880 7/10
1883 7/7
1887 7/31
1889 6/9 two for the year...5/10 was the other...
1902 7/9 only one that year...
1903 7/30
1904 7/31
1934 7/31
1950 7/31
1963 7/29
1982 7/27
1986 7/26

2013 7/20 so far...

since the heat island took over in the mid 1900's 2013 will end up with the earliest last 90 day if there are no more...

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