wolfie09 Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 0.53" imby so far today..Its pouring on my way to Staten island ( old bridge area) ..Some flooding starting to occur on rt 9.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 1.00 of rain today. Very much needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 .94" rain today. Thank God the drought is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 0.18 in nassau. 0.22 at islip and fmg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 2, 2013 Author Share Posted August 2, 2013 The only years since 1995 that Newark hasn't made it to 90 between August 1-7 were 2004, 2003, 1998, and 1996. That makes the cool start this August even rarer since those years were coming off a significantly cooler July than this year. The last three hot Julys had 95+ heat the first week of August at Newark. 2012....95 2011....98 2010....96 NEWARK, NJPTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY MOCLDY TSTRMS/86 67/81 67/82 60/80 61/80 66/81 69/80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 End of the GFS Op (Aug 16th/17th) see some humidity coming back into the picture with some dewpoint readings into the 70's. Any chance we see temps returning into the 90's that time period, with the way the patterns look? We need one more heat spell before the Fall. With a fall pattern a month early chances are slim for a 90 degree day. A few warm days with humidity is certainly possible but It's a very cool pattern setting in. This will likely be one of the chilliest Augusts for the nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 I won't rule out more days in the 90's...1964 had the coolest start to August on record but the last ten days were above average with four days 90 or higher...September had three with the last coming on Sept. 11th...other years had a day or two in the 90's after a cool start to August... edit... I could only find five years with no 90's after July 31st since 1934... 1934... 1950... 1963... 1982... 1986... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 I won't rule out more days in the 90's...1964 had the coolest start to August on record but the last ten days were above average with four days 90 or higher...September had three with the last coming on Sept. 11th...other years had a day or two in the 90's after a cool start to August... edit... I could only find five years with no 90's after July 31st since 1934... 1934... 1950... 1963... 1982... 1986... Going all the way back to the beginning of NYC's history (1871) these are the years with no 90+ highs after July 31: (throw out 1871 due to missing August temps) 1873 1880 1883 1887 1889 1902 1903 1904 1934 1950 1963 1982 1986 Over the entire history, the average last 90+ day is August 28th. In the current normals period the average last 90+ day is August 24th. NYC averages 3.2 and 0.6 90+ days in August and September respectively, if you believe the new normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 2, 2013 Author Share Posted August 2, 2013 The Euro weeklies at least open the door to the possibility that Central Park won't see any 90 degree reading this month. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-forecast-clues-into-beginning-of-september-1/16045440 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 The Euro weeklies at least open the door to the possibility that Central Park won't see any 90 degree reading this month. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-forecast-clues-into-beginning-of-september-1/16045440 Just for fun, between 8/30-9/01, the Euro weeklies have 592dm ridge over the Central Plains, ULL over TN Valley, and strong tropical system off the SE Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Just for fun, between 8/30-9/01, the Euro weeklies have 592dm ridge over the Central Plains and strong tropical system off the SE Coast. With the strong ridging forecasted to be over the plains, a persistent east coast trough and the WAR displaced to the east, the pattern should be favorable for recurving storms inside of Bermuda. Whether or not one actually gets up here is a long shot at best, and even then it's much more likely that we get a decaying system like an Irene where the primary threat would be inland flooding as opposed to a Sandy like impact. The last two falls have featured highly anomalous blocking episodes, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 With the strong ridging forecasted to be over the plains, a persistent east coast trough and the WAR displaced to the east, the pattern should be favorable for recurving storms inside of Bermuda. Whether or not one actually gets up here is a long shot at best, and even then it's much more likely that we get a decaying system like an Irene where the primary threat would be inland flooding as opposed to a Sandy like impact. The last two falls have featured highly anomalous blocking episodes, so we'll see. The westerlies would have to be depressed well south of where they are now for a Sandy-like threat. There was a huge, abnormal block over eastern Newfoundland and a strong shortwave driving through the Midwest to phase into Sandy and make it into a hybrid monster low. A repeat of that is unlikely at very best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Going all the way back to the beginning of NYC's history (1871) these are the years with no 90+ highs after July 31: (throw out 1871 due to missing August temps) 1873 1880 1883 1887 1889 1902 1903 1904 1934 1950 1963 1982 1986 Over the entire history, the average last 90+ day is August 28th. In the current normals period the average last 90+ day is August 24th. NYC averages 3.2 and 0.6 90+ days in August and September respectively, if you believe the new normals. August 1871 averaged 73.6 in Central Park...how did they come to that figure?...1963, 1982 and 1986 were developing el nino years...the second half of August was cool in those years...this year doesn't have a developing el nino yet and probably be neutral or nina next winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 August 1871 averaged 73.6 in Central Park...how did they come to that figure?...1963, 1982 and 1986 were developing el nino years...the second half of August was cool in those years...this year doesn't have a developing el nino yet and probably be neutral or nina next winter... Not sure where they got their numbers from. I assume you're looking at the page on OKX's site. I was using ACIS threaded and NCDC data which shows only July 1871 having any data, and then nothing before that. The web site's monthly averages are also slightly off up until 1912. OKX says the Central Park numbers are from the Arsenal Building from 1869-1919 so that may explain some of the discrepancies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Kind of hard to believe that it'll be 57F at Mount Vernon, NY by Monday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Kind of hard to believe that it'll be 57F at Mount Vernon, NY by Monday Night. Why? NYC averages 1 or 2 mornings <60 in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Why? NYC averages 1 or 2 mornings <60 in August. After what we went through, that's why it's hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 2, 2013 Author Share Posted August 2, 2013 Why? NYC averages 1 or 2 mornings <60 in August. I believe the last time NYC dropped below 60 during the first 10 days of August was 2004. The last 2 times NYC dropped under 60 in August was late in the month. It will be interesting to see if we get stuck at 60 or can make a 59. CENTRAL PARK, NY PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY MOCLDY MOCLDY SUNNY 68/82 66/81 60/78 63/80 65/80 67/84 70/86 8-29-11....59 8-22-08...58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 With a fall pattern a month early chances are slim for a 90 degree day. A few warm days with humidity is certainly possible but It's a very cool pattern setting in. This will likely be one of the chilliest Augusts for the nation. Looks like the next shot at 90s could come between 8/8 - 8/10. Looking at the ECM still a week away but gfs hinting similar heigh rise in this period between the next trough. Suspect we see the coolest departures next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 I believe the last time NYC dropped below 60 during the first 10 days of August was 2004. The last 2 times NYC dropped under 60 in August was late in the month. It will be interesting to see if we get stuck at 60 or can make a 59. CENTRAL PARK, NY PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY MOCLDY MOCLDY SUNNY 68/82 66/81 60/78 63/80 65/80 67/84 70/86 8-29-11....59 8-22-08...58 8/10/2007: 72/57 8/11/2007: 81/57 came close 8/11/2008 73/59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 8/10/2007: 72/57 8/11/2007: 81/57 came close 8/11/2008 73/59 I was just gonna post those dates. Looks like NYC gets below 60 in the first 10 days of August on average every 4.3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 2007 has the coolest max for August when the high was 59 on 8/21...for the record the max/min's since 1876... monthly and annual temperature extremes for Central Park.... August decade average's...monthly average...max/min...average max/min decade....ave........max...min...ave.max/min..........................................................1870's.....73.7.......na.....na.....na.....na1880's.....72.0.......96.....50.....90.6.....54.21890's.....74.2.......98.....52.....92.8.....56.91900's.....73.8.......96.....54.....91.8.....58.11910's.....73.5.....104.....51.....93.8.....56.81920's.....73.0.......99.....51.....92.8.....55.31930's.....75.5.....100.....52.....94.9.....58.51940's.....74.5.....103.....52.....95.6.....55.41950's.....75.0.....100.....54.....93.4.....57.91960's.....74.6.......94.....50.....91.8.....56.21970's.....76.0.......98.....50.....94.2.....57.11980's.....75.9.......99.....50.....93.7.....57.21990's.....75.5.......98.....57.....93.3.....59.42000's.....75.9.....103.....56.....94.2.....60.02010's.....76.5.......96.....59.....93.7.....60.31870/1880-2009 ave 74.5.....104.....50.....93.3.....57.21980-2009 ave 75.8.....103.....50.....93.7.....58.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 2007 has the coolest max for August when the high was 59 on 8/21...for the record the max/min's since 1876... monthly and annual temperature extremes for Central Park... . August decade average's...monthly average...max/min...average max/min.......................................................... 1870's.....73.7.......na.....na.....na.....na 1880's.....72.0.......96.....50.....90.6.....54.2 1890's.....74.2.......98.....52.....92.8.....56.9 1900's.....73.8.......96.....54.....91.8.....58.1 1910's.....73.5.....104.....51.....93.8.....56.8 1920's.....73.0.......99.....51.....92.8.....55.3 1930's.....75.5.....100.....52.....94.9.....58.5 1940's.....74.5.....103.....52.....95.6.....55.4 1950's.....75.0.....100.....54.....93.4.....57.9 1960's.....74.6.......94.....50.....91.8.....56.2 1970's.....76.0.......98.....50.....94.2.....57.1 1980's.....75.9.......99.....50.....93.7.....57.2 1990's.....75.5.......98.....57.....93.3.....59.4 2000's.....75.9.....103.....56.....94.2.....60.0 2010's.....76.5.......96.....59.....93.7.....60.3 1870/1880- 2009 ave 74.5.....104.....50.....93.3.....57.2 1980- 2009 ave 75.8.....103.....50.....93.7.....58.9 I remember that max on 8/21/07. There was Rain/Wind and I was a bit sick. The sky was dark and ominous at midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Pouring. Nws had me at partly sunny today...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Pouring. Nws had me at partly sunny today...lol upton's partly sunny and 80 here is verifying as a light rain and 66 thus far-definitely unexpected.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Raining here, great day to paint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Raining here, great day to paint Even better day for hosting a bbq with 100 people. At least it looks like the worst should be done in the next 2 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Overnight guidance still offers the potential brief return of some heat/90 degree readings between fri 8/8 and sun 8/10. Heights will rise ahead of the next front/trough and send surge of warmer air up into the northeast. Pending on timing with the front and cloud cover we may see the next shot at 90s in what will be over 2 weeks by that time. Beyond there trough remains between the lakes and northeast with strong weakness over eastern canada. We'll see if we see any trends for a more sustainable warmup on today's guidance. It wouldnt take much for a warm pattern to shift east later into the mid august and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Overnight guidance still offers the potential brief return of some heat/90 degree readings between fri 8/8 and sun 8/10. Heights will rise ahead of the next front/trough and send surge of warmer air up into the northeast. Pending on timing with the front and cloud cover we may see the next shot at 90s in what will be over 2 weeks by that time. Beyond there trough remains between the lakes and northeast with strong weakness over eastern canada. We'll see if we see any trends for a more sustainable warmup on today's guidance. It wouldnt take much for a warm pattern to shift east later into the mid august and beyond.90's are done for 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 dates for the last 90 degree day in NYC... 1880 7/101883 7/71887 7/311889 6/9 two for the year...5/10 was the other...1902 7/9 only one that year...1903 7/301904 7/311934 7/311950 7/311963 7/291982 7/271986 7/26 2013 7/20 so far... since the heat island took over in the mid 1900's 2013 will end up with the earliest last 90 day if there are no more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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