IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Quite a few of the 12z GEFS members have a tropical cyclone somewhere near the US east coast during the first/second week of September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 I got the word out to my friends to get their cars out of Long Beach ahead of the storm and they were able to save their cars. A number of people that I spoke to were able to put their cars up on the hill behind the bus depot in Lido and they just walked back to get their cars a few days later which were fine. The main reason that that there were no fatalities was that people were able to get to neighbors houses that had second floors which were above the surge. One of my friends near the hospital told me that the surge came up to the roof of his truck. A woman had to put her child on her shoulders to escape the rising waters in the hospital area to a neighbors house with a second floor. I spoke to a cop that was on duty that night and he told me that the tide came up to the top step of the police station. On my street the water came up to about the level of car tops or just higher so that seemed to be the case everywhere. One of my uncles rescued a woman who was trapped in her car as the surge came up which likely saved her life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Never want to see another sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Never want to see another sandy Maybe not another Sandy but how about a Gloria or a Floyd or an Irene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 27, 2013 Author Share Posted August 27, 2013 On my street the water came up to about the level of car tops or just higher so that seemed to be the case everywhere. One of my uncles rescued a woman who was trapped in her car as the surge came up which likely saved her life. The Presidents Streets really did the best as they have the highest elevation in Long Beach. The portion of those blocks closest to Broadway fared a little better than the end of the streets near Walnut. My friend three houses north of the corner of broadway there had about 8 inches water above the sidewalk level. His central air AC unit was destroyed by the saltwater, but the water stopped 2-3 inches from topping his foundation block. The neighbor across the street lost the whole house to mold and rot has he had a step down first floor without a raised foundation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Maybe not another Sandy but how about a Gloria or a Floyd or an Irene? I wouldn't mind a Gloria or just a tropical storm in general, those are much more likely than a Sandy anyway and according to JB, the east coast will remain a tropical storm/hurricane magnet for a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 I wouldn't mind a Gloria or just a tropical storm in general, those are much more likely than a Sandy anyway and according to JB, the east coast will remain a tropical storm/hurricane magnet for a few years. The east coast saw a large increase in TC activity during the 1930's and 40's, including obviously the 38 LI Express and 1944 which did more damage to parts of the NJ coast than Sandy did. If we see another TC this year it will be three years in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 I wouldn't mind a Gloria or just a tropical storm in general, those are much more likely than a Sandy anyway and according to JB, the east coast will remain a tropical storm/hurricane magnet for a few years.Where I was Gloria was fun. I went out for a jog during the eye passage, was in by the time the winds switched to 320 and we had a one hour gusty shot of rain, and overall enjoyed the drama. Sandy, not so much. We lost power for just over four (4) days, the temperatures after were bone chilling and it was just gray, cold and disgusting. Not really dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 I wouldn't mind a Gloria or just a tropical storm in general, those are much more likely than a Sandy anyway and according to JB, the east coast will remain a tropical storm/hurricane magnet for a few years. There does seem to be a cycle of east coast years, then Gulf Coast years and FL years. It is strange how that happens-i.e. the early 1950s when we had Connie, Diane, etc, and then Donna 1960. But even those were nothing like Sandy, so hopefully even if we are still due for more the follow-up storms won't be of that magnitude. I will say that if we have another massive flood event again the insurance and taxes will be almost too unbearable for anyone to live here. Hopefully at least the aftermath could be better managed next time, i.e. not the massive gas lines and terrible responses by utilities such as LIPA. I really think we were pretty close to large scale unrest if the gas lines were to last another few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Where I was Gloria was fun. I went out for a jog during the eye passage, was in by the time the winds switched to 320 and we had a one hour gusty shot of rain, and overall enjoyed the drama. Sandy, not so much. We lost power for just over four (4) days, the temperatures after were bone chilling and it was just gray, cold and disgusting. Not really dramatic. Gloria was worse where I was (I wasn't born yet) but the effects were still nothing like Sandy. Some areas took on water and the waves were bad. The winds may have been slightly worse, since Long Beach was directly in the eye. But most people bounced back quickly, far more quickly than after Sandy. I haven't met anyone in town who remembers a worse storm than Sandy, even people who were here in the 1930s/1940s. I guess the 1938 storm would be the best comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 There does seem to be a cycle of east coast years, then Gulf Coast years and FL years. It is strange how that happens-i.e. the early 1950s when we had Connie, Diane, etc, and then Donna 1960. But even those were nothing like Sandy, so hopefully even if we are still due for more the follow-up storms won't be of that magnitude. I will say that if we have another massive flood event again the insurance and taxes will be almost too unbearable for anyone to live here. Hopefully at least the aftermath could be better managed next time, i.e. not the massive gas lines and terrible responses by utilities such as LIPA. I really think we were pretty close to large scale unrest if the gas lines were to last another few days. Sandy by herself wasn't the most interesting hurricane. The only thing that made Sandy special was her combination with another low pressure system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Man im going to DR on sept 5 and the gfs keeps showing something in the area, I hope it stays away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Sandy by herself wasn't the most interesting hurricane. The only thing that made Sandy special was her combination with another low pressure system. It was a Perfect Storm that made landfall in the worst possible place at the worst possible time. Actually, since the 1991 version only went down to 972 mb, this one was much more impressive of an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Sandy by herself wasn't the most interesting hurricane. The only thing that made Sandy special was her combination with another low pressure system. If you're talking pure hurricane then maybe not but it was certainly the most interesting evolution of a powerful weather system. I'm hoping we see a storm with overall stronger winds but less damaging surge, the latter of why Sandy was so destructive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 If the winds were stronger than Sandy , people start losing roofs. I love hurricanes, I feel bad rooting for one bc of the damage that comes with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 This week is summery in the sense that we're seeing near normal values for August, but we're barely putting up more than +1 to +3 daily departures. Mins are a bit elevated but day time highs are essentially normal. My splits today....89/68....normal 82/58 +7 for the high, +10 for the low....+8.5 for the day that is nothing to sneeze out considering that we were way below normal the first half of the month. The rest of the week should be in the +4 to +5 range at least. It has been quite humid thus far this week as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Today's highs EWR: 90New Bnswk: 90PHL: 89ACY: 89TEB: 88JFK: 88NYC: 87LGA: 86ISP: 85TTN: 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Here's how the warmup has performed so far. EWR: 8/20: 90/64 (+1) 8/21: 91/68 (+5) 8/22: 79/71 (+0) 8/23: 83/69 (+1) 8/24: 80/62 (-4) 8/25: 84/60 (-3) 8/26: 86/67 (+2) 8/27: 90/72 (+7) LGA: 8/20: 89/70 (+4) 8/21: 90/74 (+6) 8/22: 79/73 (+0) 8/23: 81/71 (+0) 8/24: 79/64 (-3) 8/25: 83/67 (+0) 8/26: 8470 (+2) 8/27: 86/73 (+5) NYC: 8/20: 88/68 (+3) 8/21: 90/72 (+6) 8/22: 78/71 (+0) 8/23: 82/71 (+2) 8/24: 80/65 (-1) 8/25: 83/64 (+0) 8/26: 84/68 (+2) 8/27: 87/71 (+5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 summer lasts until the end of September some years...mulitple 80 days can come in October...two great winters 1963-64 and 1947-48 had late October warmth before it started...1986 had record cold at the end of Auguat...it had record warmth at the end of September...This isn't a developing el nino year so far and it could become a weak la nina winter...August 1964 started cool and ended warm...I mentioned that analog weeks ago and August is ending warm like that year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 It looks pretty cool after Labor day on the gfs, probably low to mid 70s for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 It looks pretty cool after Labor day on the gfs, probably low to mid 70s for highs. The CFSv2 is pretty persistent with that theme of cooler weather around the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 The CFSv2 is pretty persistent with that theme of cooler weather around the 5th. That makes sense then, it would be nice if it could last. After a few refreshing mid 70s, I prefer not to see the humid weather and mid 80s in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 probably our warmest night of the month so far...temps holding in the low 80s in urban areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 If you're talking pure hurricane then maybe not but it was certainly the most interesting evolution of a powerful weather system. I'm hoping we see a storm with overall stronger winds but less damaging surge, the latter of why Sandy was so destructive. There's still tons of misinformation about it out there, and most people (even media sources) don't understand the concept of a hybrid/perfect storm. http://liherald.com/longbeach/stories/Rebuilding-LI-in-a-post-Sandy-world,49359?page=1&content_source= "Sandy, which was technically a tropical storm when it made landfall..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Happy anniversary, Irene. Two weeks before this hypeacane made landfall, I received about 12" of rain which flooded my basement. I was in the middle of a huge argument with my landlord at the time who refused to pay for the draining of the water. I couldn't take him to court until early September and then Irene came, which made the entire argument moot because Irene ripped a gigantic hole in the roof. I can only imagine what Sandy must've done to the remnants of that house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Looks like that area of rain mostly moving southeast is trying to push eastward a bit. Not sure of it'll make it into NE NJ or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Look like some big storms are starting to form in northern nj. Will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Link to those forecasts? Why do mods allow this to continue? His area had a much greater chance of rain than the areas further north and east. had they predicted rain for his area he would have said something along the lines of no big deal got a couple showers why all the hype? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Some new cells have popped up just northwest of the city, looks like we actually could get in on the action. But they are indeed moving southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Just had some pretty intense lightning and heavy downpours come through. May have had some small hail mix in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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