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August 2013 Observations And Discussions


bluewave

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Actually nice try allsnow but it is going out like a dog. Seven days of above normal highs and lows. Warm and humid 8/25-31. Thats dog days to me

I think oppressive humidity for dog days, not having my windows open every night. It has been very comfortable the last few nights. This has not been a month for heat lovers

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This boring stretch of weather should come to an end soon as the tropics begin to quickly heat up. The 00z GFS and to a lesser extent the 06z GFS are hinting at number of east coast threats in the next 10-16 days.

After the last two years we could use a bit of boredom.

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Had a mean temp of 70.8F for June, exactly the same for August so far, 70.8F, and 78.0F For July. So basically 2 fairly comfortable months and 1 torch month of the summer.

 

My mean highs for June and August are 80.5 and 80.0 respectively. Overnight minima are both 62.4-62.5.

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Kind of a stupid question, but how correct are our "normals?" What is the presumption behind them and why do we always fail to either reach them or succeed at breaching them? We almost never hit the "normal" temperature.

 

 

Normals are an average of the variations in temperatures, so the word "normal" should not imply that we need to attain that value every day. It simply means that the mean of our warm, hot, cool, cold periods ends up being that value. Most of the time are temperatures are within 15 degrees of "normal" but sometimes we can see variations of 20-30+ degrees from that number.

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Kind of a stupid question, but how correct are our "normals?" What is the presumption behind them and why do we always fail to either reach them or succeed at breaching them? We almost never hit the "normal" temperature.

 Normals are an average of the variations in temperatures, so the word "normal" should not imply that we need to attain that value every day. It simply means that the mean of our warm, hot, cool, cold periods ends up being that value. Most of the time are temperatures are within 15 degrees of "normal" but sometimes we can see variations of 20-30+ degrees from that number.
Normals are calculated based on a rolling 30 year calendar. Right now the "normal" base is 1981-1990, 1991-2000 and 2001-2010. My strongly held opinion is we should be using 50 or 60 year base periods, if not longer, since we now have good data for lengthy periods at most stations and we should try to at least span two (2) "warm" or "cold" phases.
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While I don't wish anyone death and or destruction, I'll be the first person to sign up for another cane this year.

Yup. We certainly got off easy down here from the last one we had. :axe:

 

I can't imagine how anyone could want something like we had with Sandy. It's one thing to want a blizzard that makes the scenery outside white and generally snarls things up for a couple of days, but I will never root on the kind of death and devastation this area had from that storm. Ever. It literally was beyond words to describe and my town is still recovering from it. Even now many homes are being demolished from irreparable flood damage (luckily my home was just below the damage designation required for a full demolition/rebuild, but we lost just about all of our possessions anyway), and my city of nearly 40,000 has no hospital because of it. A hurricane has far different impacts way inland where you are vs. here on the shore which was inundated by up to 10 foot surges in addition to the high tide/full moon.

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Yup. We certainly got off easy down here from the last one we had. :axe:

 

I can't imagine how anyone could want something like we had with Sandy. It's one thing to want a blizzard that makes the scenery outside white and generally snarls things up for a couple of days, but I will never root on the kind of death and devastation this area had from that storm. Ever. It literally was beyond words to describe and my town is still recovering from it. Even now many homes are being demolished from irreparable flood damage (luckily my home was just below the damage designation required for a full demolition/rebuild, but we lost just about all of our possessions anyway), and my city of nearly 40,000 has no hospital because of it. A hurricane has far different impacts way inland where you are vs. here on the shore which was inundated by up to 10 foot surges in addition to the high tide/full moon.

I'm a severe weather enthusiast, it doesn't mean I'm "rooting" for anything. I was down in Seaside immediatly during the aftermath helping with the search and rescue. I saw the destruction first hand, yet I couldn't help but stand in awe at the shocking power of mother nature. It's a very humbling experience and I don't wish destruction on any individual, but I'm a severe weather enthusiast just like many others on this board and the more powerful and more severe the better. This forum is full of posters wishing for a US landfalling hurricane this year.

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Yup. We certainly got off easy down here from the last one we had. :axe:

 

I can't imagine how anyone could want something like we had with Sandy. It's one thing to want a blizzard that makes the scenery outside white and generally snarls things up for a couple of days, but I will never root on the kind of death and devastation this area had from that storm. Ever. It literally was beyond words to describe and my town is still recovering from it. Even now many homes are being demolished from irreparable flood damage (luckily my home was just below the damage designation required for a full demolition/rebuild, but we lost just about all of our possessions anyway), and my city of nearly 40,000 has no hospital because of it. A hurricane has far different impacts way inland where you are vs. here on the shore which was inundated by up to 10 foot surges in addition to the high tide/full moon.

 

New videos keep getting posted on Youtube. Check out the guy driving the van through the surge down on Grand.

 

I had a great walk on the new open section of the boardwalk a week ago and it is really looking beautiful. But you

can see how many  parts of town are still struggling to recover. It was nice to see McDonalds open

again. People are not happy about the hospital remaining closed.

 

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New videos keep getting posted on Youtube. Check out the guy driving the van through the surge down on Grand.

 

I had a great walk on the new open section of the boardwalk a week ago and it is really looking beautiful. But you

can see how many  parts of town are still struggling to recover. It was nice to see McDonalds open

again. People are not happy about the hospital remaining closed.

 

It continues to amaze me that no one from Long Beach died, given how fast the surge came in over much of town and how many stayed. A lot of people underestimated it, as most don't understand a "Perfect Storm" that is part-Nor'easter. Sandy was a storm I had a really bad feeling about from the days it was emerging from Cuba and the models were converging on a worst-case track for here.

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It continues to amaze me that no one from Long Beach died, given how fast the surge came in over much of town and how many stayed. A lot of people underestimated it, as most don't understand a "Perfect Storm" that is part-Nor'easter. Sandy was a storm I had a really bad feeling about from the days it was emerging from Cuba and the models were converging on a worst-case track for here.

 

I got the word out to my friends to get their cars out of Long Beach ahead of the storm and they were able to save their cars.

A number of people that I spoke to were able to put their cars up on the hill behind the bus depot in Lido and they just walked

back to get their cars a few days later which were fine.

 

The main reason that that there were no fatalities  was that people were able to get to neighbors houses that had second

floors which were above the surge. One of my friends near the hospital told me that the surge came up to the roof

of his truck. A woman had to put her child on her shoulders to escape the rising waters in the hospital area to a 

neighbors house with a second floor. I spoke to a cop that was on duty that night and he told me that the 

tide came up to the top step of the police station.

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