August 2013 Observations And Discussions

[winterwarlock]

Nice to see very warm and dry conditions take over

[Stormlover74]

NYC is two degrees warmer than this time yesterday, so we should see a high at Central Park

of 89-90 today. The drier conditions this month are helping keep NYC highs closer to the other

stations this week than it was back in June and July.

Yeah Ewr dropped to 86 and Central Park is up to 89. Both should hit 90 but would be odd if NYC did and EWR didn't

[IsentropicLift]

This has to be one of the most boring stretches of weather we have experienced in about 3 years. I find myself not even viewing this sub-forum for days or even a week at time which is very unusual for me since I've been a member. Hopefully we get into a more active stretch with tropical threats and or any early fall noreasters.

[SACRUS]

Central park the 1pm hot sopt

 

NYC: 89

EWR: 86

LGA: 87

[Weathergun]

Newark reached 91, between hours.

[Isotherm]

86.5F so far here today. Going to be hard to tack on another 3 degrees for 90.

[NEXtreme]

My idea was all along "struggling to hit 90" .. Not the premature talk of easily into widespread 90's, even mid 90's by some. It may struggle to hit 80 again this weekend, especially Saturday.

Some real fall like weather showing up in the long range.

[SnoSki14]

This has to be one of the most boring stretches of weather we have experienced in about 3 years. I find myself not even viewing this sub-forum for days or even a week at time which is very unusual for me since I've been a member. Hopefully we get into a more active stretch with tropical threats and or any early fall noreasters.

 

This prolonged quiet stretches actually worry me more than anything as it's almost like a buildup of energy until a huge storm occurs, like with Sandy last year. Instead of small systems to even things out, you get large quiet breaks and then infrequent but very powerful, dangerous systems. 

 

I think that's what many climate enthusiasts and global warming experts feared. They said something about less weak to moderate weather events/storms and more powerful storms/systems.

[Stormlover74]

This prolonged quiet stretches actually worry me more than anything as it's almost like a buildup of energy until a huge storm occurs, like with Sandy last year. Instead of small systems to even things out, you get large quiet breaks and then infrequent but very powerful, dangerous systems. 

 

I think that's what many climate enthusiasts and global warming experts feared. They said something about less weak to moderate weather events/storms and more powerful storms/systems.

And other years the tropics are just quiet. Maybe this is one of those years.

[SACRUS]

So far EWR, TEB and New Brunswick have hit 90, also believe LGA, NYC likely hit between hours.

 

12z gfs aside from a day or two cool down has above normal heights and temps through the end of the month and into labor day.  Core of the ridge and heat is west but does suggest some more heat (90s) possible next week and again labor day weekend/week.

[SACRUS]

My idea was all along "struggling to hit 90" .. Not the premature talk of easily into widespread 90's, even mid 90's by some. It may struggle to hit 80 again this weekend, especially Saturday.

Some real fall like weather showing up in the long range.

 

Looks like a 36 to 48 hour cool down fri-sun likely yieldnig -5 on sat and near normal by sunday.  Not sure what guidance is/was showing mid 90s, but another shot at some 90 degree readings between 8/27 and 8/30.  Perhaps into the first week of Sep as well.  The period end of July into the middel of August was impressively cool, no contest.  But the summer overall will end on the warm side for the 3 months and feature 90 degree days totals similar to 2011 and 2012  depsite the 3+ week repreieve.

[ag3]

So far EWR, TEB and New Brunswick have hit 90, also believe LGA, NYC likely hit between hours.

 

12z gfs aside from a day or two cool down has above normal heights and temps through the end of the month and into labor day.  Core of the ridge and heat is west but does suggest some more heat (90s) possible next week and again labor day weekend/week.

 

12z euro now introduces the same trough the GFS has for this weekend and then a coastal system with a rainy Monday and Tuesday.

And then from Monday to the end of the run, NYC and north is into an easterly wind.

Right after this period, looks like it would be warmer.

[bluewave]

Anyone have the link with detailed between hour high temps? I lost the old link that I had.

[Isotherm]

Have to watch where the warm front sets up early next week. We could potentially be looking at near or slightly below normal temps, at least in high temps, through mid next week.  NW Flow aloft with the major heat in the Mid-west. Probably some differential advection T-storms.

[Isotherm]

Looks like a 36 to 48 hour cool down fri-sun likely yieldnig -5 on sat and near normal by sunday.  Not sure what guidance is/was showing mid 90s, but another shot at some 90 degree readings between 8/27 and 8/30.  Perhaps into the first week of Sep as well.  The period end of July into the middel of August was impressively cool, no contest.  But the summer overall will end on the warm side for the 3 months and feature 90 degree days totals similar to 2011 and 2012  depsite the 3+ week repreieve.

 

 

Depending upon how warm the last 7 days are, NYC will likely finish summer JJA in the 0 to +1 range for temp departures, near to slightly above normal area wide, with near average 90 degree days (15-20 for most).

 

 This will go down as a humid, back and forth summer overall. June 1-20 was normal/coolish, June 20-July 20 very warm/hot humid, July 20-Aug 20 coolish.

 

IMBY I was +0.6 June, +2.9 July, and -3.0 August so far, which puts me at +0.16 temp departure for June-July-August. Even if the -3.0 comes up to -2.0, that would put me at +0.5 for JJA temps.

[Weathergun]

NYC hit 90 at 2:25pm, according to OKX twitter.

[SACRUS]

Depending upon how warm the last 7 days are, NYC will likely finish summer JJA in the 0 to +1 range for temp departures, near to slightly above normal area wide, with near average 90 degree days (15-20 for most).

 

 This will go down as a humid, back and forth summer overall. June 1-20 was normal/coolish, June 20-July 20 very warm/hot humid, July 20-Aug 20 coolish.

 

IMBY I was +0.6 June, +2.9 July, and -3.0 August so far, which puts me at +0.16 temp departure for June-July-August. Even if the -3.0 comes up to -2.0, that would put me at +0.5 for JJA temps.

 

 

Agree Iso and it fit well into the summer forecats overall.  But I think NYC and other spots had greater departures from your area in Monmouth and will come out greater than +1 for the summer.  90 degree days will be similar to 2011 and 2012 totals even with the 3+ week cool period. 

 

NYC:

Jun : +1.2

Jul: +3.4

Aug:

 

LGA:

Jun : +1.9

Jul: +3.8

Aug

 

 

EWR:

Jun: +0.9

Jul: +3.5

Aug:

 

EWR:

[Isotherm]

Looks like a 36 to 48 hour cool down fri-sun likely yieldnig -5 on sat and near normal by sunday.  Not sure what guidance is/was showing mid 90s, but another shot at some 90 degree readings between 8/27 and 8/30.  Perhaps into the first week of Sep as well.  The period end of July into the middel of August was impressively cool, no contest.  But the summer overall will end on the warm side for the 3 months and feature 90 degree days totals similar to 2011 and 2012  depsite the 3+ week repreieve.

 

 

Tony, I don't think 90 degree days are going to be close to 2011 or 2012 for most places.

 

PHL had 33 in 2011, 39 in 2012, and they're at 19 so far.

EWR had 31 in 2011, 33 in 2012, and they're at 22 so far.

TTN had 26 in 2011, 29 in 2012, and they're at 15 so far.

LGA had 18 in 2011, 28 in 2012, and they're at 19 so far, so they'll finish close to 2011.

NYC had 19-20 for 2011 and 2012, today will make 16. Most likely they'll under both years.

New Brunswick had 35 in 2012, and only 20 so far this year.

 

Looks to me like the lesser differences between this summer and 2012-2011 are from NYC northeastward but from NYC SW, NJ, PHL, etc there are major differences.

 

This summer is substantially cooler 90 degree day wise for most places in NJ southward compared to the past 3 summers.

[bluewave]

Agree Iso and it fit well into the summer forecats overall.  But I think NYC and other spots had greater departures from your area in Monmouth and will come out greater than +1 for the summer.  90 degree days will be similar to 2011 and 2012 totals even with the 3+ week cool period. 

 

NYC:

Jun : +1.2

Jul: +3.4

Aug:

 

LGA:

Jun : +1.9

Jul: +3.8

Aug

 

 

EWR:

Jun: +0.9

Jul: +3.5

Aug:

 

EWR:

 

A very impressive summer run from 2005-2013 with only 2007 and 2009 finishing below normal here.

 

2005+

2006+

2007-

2008+

2009-

2010+

2011+

2012+

2013+

[SACRUS]

12z euro now introduces the same trough the GFS has for this weekend and then a coastal system with a rainy Monday and Tuesday.

And then from Monday to the end of the run, NYC and north is into an easterly wind.

Right after this period, looks like it would be warmer.

 

Yeah its been back and forth on the extent of the ridging.  Both the 12z gfs and ecm would delay any real heating til labor day weekend/beyond.  The ridge really is impressive on guidance over the heatland and such patterns always get blasts of heat in here for a day or two.  Will be interesting to see.

[Isotherm]

Agree Iso and it fit well into the summer forecats overall.  But I think NYC and other spots had greater departures from your area in Monmouth and will come out greater than +1 for the summer.  90 degree days will be similar to 2011 and 2012 totals even with the 3+ week cool period. 

 

NYC:

Jun : +1.2

Jul: +3.4

Aug:

 

LGA:

Jun : +1.9

Jul: +3.8

Aug

 

 

EWR:

Jun: +0.9

Jul: +3.5

Aug:

 

EWR:

 

 

Yeah the NYC area had warmer departures for July especially.

 

At Trenton, they had a +1.3 June, +2.4 July, and -3.5 so far August, so essentially 0 on the summer thus far.

 

There is definitely a chance NYC sneaks +1 or higher for JJA, depends on this last week.

[SACRUS]

Tony, I don't think 90 degree days are going to be close to 2011 or 2012 for most places.

 

PHL had 33 in 2011, 39 in 2012, and they're at 19 so far.

EWR had 31 in 2011, 33 in 2012, and they're at 22 so far.

TTN had 26 in 2011, 29 in 2012, and they're at 15 so far.

LGA had 18 in 2011, 28 in 2012, and they're at 19 so far, so they'll finish close to 2011.

NYC had 19-20 for 2011 and 2012, today will make 16. Most likely they'll under both years.

New Brunswick had 35 in 2012, and only 20 so far this year.

 

Looks to me like the lesser differences between this summer and 2012-2011 are from NYC northeastward but from NYC SW, NJ, PHL, etc there are major differences.

 

This summer is substantially cooler 90 degree day wise for most places in NJ southward compared to the past 3 summers.

 

 

Interesting i was just looking south into Philly, TTN and beyond and yes much less.  I do think we'll add on some more so C-NJ into NYC will be close.  89 degree days are up this year too :-).   I think the summer forecasts performed well for me besides August which i thought would be the warmest month against average.

[Isotherm]

Interesting i was just looking south into Philly, TTN and beyond and yes much less.  I do think we'll add on some more so C-NJ into NYC will be close.  89 degree days are up this year too :-).   I think the summer forecasts performed well for me besides August which i thought would be the warmest month against average.

 

Yeah I agree, I think we both did well with the wetter than normal, near to slightly above idea. Monthly timing was off for July-Aug for me too as I thought Aug would warm after cooler July, but the reverse happened. The overall worked out though.

 

 

Hard to believe met autumn starts soon. I could go for another 3-4 weeks of summer weather personally.

[bluewave]

Tony, I don't think 90 degree days are going to be close to 2011 or 2012 for most places.

 

PHL had 33 in 2011, 39 in 2012, and they're at 19 so far.

EWR had 31 in 2011, 33 in 2012, and they're at 22 so far.

TTN had 26 in 2011, 29 in 2012, and they're at 15 so far.

LGA had 18 in 2011, 28 in 2012, and they're at 19 so far, so they'll finish close to 2011.

NYC had 19-20 for 2011 and 2012, today will make 16. Most likely they'll under both years.

New Brunswick had 35 in 2012, and only 20 so far this year.

 

Looks to me like the lesser differences between this summer and 2012-2011 are from NYC northeastward but from NYC SW, NJ, PHL, etc there are major differences.

 

This summer is substantially cooler 90 degree day wise for most places in NJ southward compared to the past 3 summers.

 

The WAR pattern kept the heat further to the NE this year. Overall, it was a much cooler summer for the eastern half of

the U.S. than the last several ones.

 

 

[TWCCraig]

Amazing foliage here. Leaves down everywhere. It's like the south shore of LI is a desert. Ground is parched, grass is brown. Dry as a bone.

[Snowlover11]

This has to be one of the most boring stretches of weather we have experienced in about 3 years. I find myself not even viewing this sub-forum for days or even a week at time which is very unusual for me since I've been a member. Hopefully we get into a more active stretch with tropical threats and or any early fall noreasters.

this, this is my first time looking around in 3 weeks

[Isotherm]

87.3F high here today after a low of 65, only slightly above normal for this time of year. Wonder if I can make it through August with no 90s.

[Stormlover74]

while I wouldn't mind some decent thunderstorm activity or some tropical remnants I'm perfectly ok with not losing power for the 4th time in 2 years

[SACRUS]

Today's Highs

 

EWR: 91
New Bnswk: 90
NYC: 90
LGA: 90
TEB: 90
JFK: 88
ISP: 88
TTN: 88
 

[doncat]

90 here also today.