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After a nice weekend, the ugly head of humidity and summer return


Avdave

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1129 AM CDT FRI AUG 09 2013

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE DELMARVA INTO SERN PA

AND NJ...

...DELMARVA INTO SERN PA/NJ...

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED CLOUDS FROM SRN/ERN VA INTO THE

DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH BREAKS IN CLOUDS NWD INTO NJ. STRONGER

DIABATIC HEATING HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING CLOUD SHIELD

WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 90 IN VA TO LOW 80S IN

NJ. DESPITE MODEST LAPSE RATES...AMPLE MOISTURE /DEW POINTS IN

LOW/MID 70S AND PW AOA 2 IN/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE VALUES AROUND

1500 J/KG...AND WEAK CIN SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTION INITIATION

OCCURRING DURING EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS CONSISTENT WITH CONSENSUS

OF MULTIPLE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL FORECASTS.

12Z AREA SOUNDINGS AND LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE 30-40 KT OF

WLY FLOW ABOVE 1-2 KM AGL WHICH WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY ORGANIZED

MULTICELL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. AS STORMS MOVE EWD DURING THE

AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HORIZONTAL

MOMENTUM AUGMENTED BY PRECIPITATION-LOADING EFFECTS SHOULD SUPPORT

DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

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It shut off right quick over downtown. We got a few mintues of torrential rain, and then pretty much nothing. Guessing BWI got even less than I saw a few miles away.

Stuff moving too fast for much in the way of big totals
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