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After a nice weekend, the ugly head of humidity and summer return


Avdave

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I still haven't figured out how sterling does their departures the last couple years. There is obviously rounding going on that I haven't quite gotten yet

 

It is all about rounding.  Take 8/1.  83/70. So, the average is 76.5.  They round up in the climo report to 77.  Meanwhile the norms are 88/71, which taken at face value would be 79.5, a -3 departure for the day.  But, the daily norm because of the rounding and smoothing they do with the 30 year averages turns out to be 79.  So, you have a rounded 77 and a rounded and smoothed 79, for a -2 departure.  Doesn't much matter for monthly climo since the unrounded values are used, and it minimally matters for daily climo because, really, outside of us who the hell cares.

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It is all about rounding. Take 8/1. 83/70. So, the average is 76.5. They round up in the climo report to 77. Meanwhile the norms are 88/71, which taken at face value would be 79.5, a -3 departure for the day. But, the daily norm because of the rounding and smoothing they do with the 30 year averages turns out to be 79. So, you have a rounded 77 and a rounded and smoothed 79, for a -2 departure. Doesn't much matter for monthly climo since the unrounded values are used, and it minimally matters for daily climo because, really, outside of us who the hell cares.

Cool. That's what I thought. They used to use unrounded for the monthly as we went along which made it easier to track. Now it seems to be rounded? We should be a -2.2 but maybe that is because the norms are really 87.5/70.5? Otherwise the -1.7 makes no sense. I guess in the end it is 78.1 however they get there but don't understand -1.7 unless 88/71 is bogus.

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Cool. That's what I thought. They used to use unrounded for the monthly as we went along which made it easier to track. Now it seems to be rounded? We should be a -2.2 but maybe that is because the norms are really 87.5/70.5? Otherwise the -1.7 makes no sense. I guess in the end it is 78.1 however they get there but don't understand -1.7 unless 88/71 is bogus.

 

I'm guessing you are right that somewhere in the climate system is an unrounded version of 88/71 and that is what is used for the departure-to-date, but I don't know for certain.

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Another cloudy non-summer day. Just 68 degrees here, with rain. 

 

I bet you'd be ecstatic if we had this weather in January :)

 

We may have positive nighttime mins giving us positive departures for the summer months, but it has not been a hot summer. We've had a lot of cooler days. Hoping tomorrow is as nice as forecast.

 

Thank goodness for that

If it's not snowing, then yes, I would be more than happy to have 68 degree days in January. I love snow. I don't love cold.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 4 Beta

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Although the lack of thunderstorm activity has made it a bit boring at times, this summer has been OK in my book. Except for that one stretch in July -- when for most of it I was out of town in Beaufort SC where it wasn't nearly as uncomfortable as here, evidently -- this has been an easy summer. Another grade-A summer day today. Time to go out running. 

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A lot going on in this picture, but a few things to point out. Each of the lines are 1 GFS run (the last 7).

 

Blue Line: Warm cloud depth, the higher the better the rain making efficiency. (Scale is the far left)

Red Line: Temperature (far right scale)

Green Line: Dew Point (far right scale)

Lower Green Line: Accumulated Rain Total (middle scale)
post-741-0-33318100-1375669356_thumb.png

tl;dr. IT GONNA RAIN!

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