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August 2013 NY/NJ/CT

IsentropicLift

By IsentropicLift,
in New York City Metro

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

Since today is July 31'st I thought it would be good timing to start up another banter thread. As we move closer to the end of Summer the models have flipped from wanting to build back in the WAR and replace it with a persistent long wave trough. This should bring average to below average temps for our area. Some regions might even end up well below normal.

 

The big question then becomes does the pattern flip again come mid-month? My feeling is that we haven't seen the last of the heat for the summer of 2013 yet.

 

Since our sub forum doesn't have a seperate thread for tropical threats I thought this would be a good place to discuss any thoughts about the tropics. My feeling is that we'll need to keep a close eye as the WAR attempts to make a come back mid month. This would coincide with the historical uptick in tropical activity in the northern Atlantic basin.

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snowman21

snowman21

Posted
Posted

I posted this in the SNE thread, but here is our post-August 15th heatwave history.

 

                              ---HIGH TEMPS---   --------LOW TEMPS--------
ID    START/END DATE  #DAYS    AVG   MAX  >=95    AVG  MAX  MIN  >=65 >=70
---   ---------------------   ----------------   -------------------------
BDR   1953 08/28-09/02   6    95.2    99    3    67.5   68   66    6    0
BDR   2010 08/29-09/01   4    92.3    94    0    66.5   71   62    2    2
BDR   1948 08/26-08/29   4    96.5   100    3    73.8   75   72    4    4
BDR   2002 08/17-08/19   3    91.0    93    0    75.0   77   74    3    3
BDR   1955 08/20-08/22   3    93.3    96    1    70.3   72   69    3    2
BDR   2 OTHERS           3

EWR   1973 08/26-09/05  11    94.7   100    7    76.5   79   70   11   11
EWR   1953 08/24-09/03  11    96.7   105    6    70.6   77   64   10    8
EWR   1948 08/24-08/29   6    97.8   103    5    72.0   77   64    5    5
EWR   2010 08/29-09/02   5    96.4    98    4    71.4   75   62    4    4
EWR   1993 08/25-08/29   5    96.8   100    4    75.0   77   73    5    5
EWR   1959 08/25-08/29   5    92.6    95    1    72.0   76   66    5    4
EWR   1945 08/28-09/01   5    93.0    95    1    66.0   71   57    3    1
EWR   1937 08/31-09/04   5    91.8    92    0    68.4   70   67    5    2
EWR   1991 08/28-08/31   4    94.3    96    2    70.8   74   65    4    3
EWR   1960 08/27-08/30   4    92.3    94    0    69.5   74   63    3    3
EWR   27 OTHERS          3

JFK   1948 08/25-08/30   6    96.5   101    4    75.0   78   71    6    6
JFK   2010 08/29-09/01   4    93.5    97    1    69.0   73   63    3    2
JFK   1973 08/28-08/31   4    94.0    98    2    72.8   74   71    4    4
JFK   5 OTHERS           3

LGA   1953 08/24-09/03  11    95.5   102    6    74.5   79   69   11    9
LGA   1973 08/28-09/04   8    93.8    97    2    76.1   81   73    8    8
LGA   2010 08/29-09/02   5    94.0    96    3    76.8   81   71    5    5
LGA   1948 08/25-08/29   5    98.4   103    5    77.8   80   72    5    5
LGA   2009 08/16-08/19   4    91.5    93    0    75.0   77   73    4    4
LGA   1993 08/25-08/28   4    93.8    96    1    74.0   76   71    4    4
LGA   1959 08/25-08/28   4    91.8    94    0    73.5   77   70    4    4
LGA   10 OTHERS          3

NYC   1953 08/24-09/04  12    95.4   102    6    73.9   78   68   12    9
NYC   1973 08/28-09/04   8    95.4    98    5    75.0   78   72    8    8
NYC   1898 08/31-09/05   6    92.0    93    0    77.2   79   75    6    6
NYC   2010 08/29-09/02   5    94.4    96    2    73.8   78   67    5    4
NYC   1980 08/24-08/28   5    94.2    97    3    72.2   76   67    5    4
NYC   1959 08/25-08/29   5    91.8    94    0    72.2   75   68    5    4
NYC   1948 08/25-08/29   5    98.8   103    5    77.0   79   72    5    5
NYC   1937 08/31-09/04   5    91.2    93    0    71.8   74   68    5    4
NYC   2009 08/16-08/19   4    90.8    92    0    71.8   75   68    4    3
NYC   1993 08/25-08/28   4    95.3    96    3    72.3   73   71    4    4
NYC   1945 08/29-09/01   4    92.0    93    0    71.8   73   69    4    3
NYC   1929 09/01-09/04   4    96.8    99    4    71.3   74   67    4    3
NYC   1924 08/30-09/02   4    92.5    95    1    67.0   74   60    3    1
NYC   1915 09/14-09/17   4    91.3    93    0    72.8   74   72    4    4
NYC   1895 09/20-09/23   4    95.0    97    3    74.0   77   68    4    3
NYC   22 OTHERS          3
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Wxoutlooksblog

Wxoutlooksblog

Posted
Posted

Since today is July 31'st I thought it would be good timing to start up another banter thread. As we move closer to the end of Summer the models have flipped from wanting to build back in the WAR and replace it with a persistent long wave trough. This should bring average to below average temps for our area. Some regions might even end up well below normal.

 

The big question then becomes does the pattern flip again come mid-month? My feeling is that we haven't seen the last of the heat for the summer of 2013 yet.

 

Since our sub forum doesn't have a seperate thread for tropical threats I thought this would be a good place to discuss any thoughts about the tropics. My feeling is that we'll need to keep a close eye as the WAR attempts to make a come back mid month. This would coincide with the historical uptick in tropical activity in the northern Atlantic basin.

A dark cloud of uncertainty about this looms overhead, and if WAR doesn't come back, the there will not be any east coast tropical threats.

WX/PT

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted

Sad that I had to go to Florida to get a decent thunderstorm. The storm I am experiencing right now would be severe warned in NY even tho it prob hasnt met severe criteria but here there's only a special weather statement here. I am just SW of downtown Orlando. Winds have def gusted past 50, very frequent cg's and very heavy tropical rain. I have pics of the shelf cloud and one lightning strike. I also have some sweet video. I do not use social media and have no clue how to post a pic or vid on here.

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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

Posted
Posted

Sad that I had to go to Florida to get a decent thunderstorm. The storm I am experiencing right now would be severe warned in NY even tho it prob hasnt met severe criteria but here there's only a special weather statement here. I am just SW of downtown Orlando. Winds have def gusted past 50, very frequent cg's and very heavy tropical rain. I have pics of the shelf cloud and one lightning strike. I also have some sweet video. I do not use social media and have no clue how to post a pic or vid on here.

 

Was in Florida as well this past week. Didn't get any storms in the Keys except for a few brief downpours. On the way back, I did go through one TS, wasn't a robust storm though.

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dbc

dbc

Posted
Posted

Sad that I had to go to Florida to get a decent thunderstorm. The storm I am experiencing right now would be severe warned in NY even tho it prob hasnt met severe criteria but here there's only a special weather statement here. I am just SW of downtown Orlando. Winds have def gusted past 50, very frequent cg's and very heavy tropical rain. I have pics of the shelf cloud and one lightning strike. I also have some sweet video. I do not use social media and have no clue how to post a pic or vid on here.

If you put the pictures or videos on photobucket or youtube or similar then you can click the little square under and just to the left of the smiley face when you are editing or replying a message and copy and paste the link into the URL field in the dialog box that pops up. You can also in More Reply Options mode click the Choose Files...box under the dialog box where you type your reply and bring in a picture or video from your computer into the post.

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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

Posted
Posted

Just got here to Duck Key. Hawks Kay Resort. Beautiful weather, hit a few passing showers south of Miami though.

 

Weird. I was just staying in Marathon on Vaca Key (one key over from where you are) last week. Stayed in Tranquility Bay Resort. Beautiful down there. Weather was good down there when I was there. Only rained once and it was a night.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Ate at whales tail last night then chilled on beach. Beautiful night and good times. Actually first date w my wife was at caffe laguna...now closed

 

It's sad that Laguna wasn't able to open again after Sandy. Long Beach is one of my favorite restaurant towns on all 

of Long Island. There is a style of cuisine for just about any taste that you have. You can walk a few blocks

and pass great Italian, Japanese, Cuban, Bagel, deli, Thai, cafe, sports bar, pub, crepes, wraps, smoothies, etc.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Watched Jaws on the beach last night (Movie) about 5-700 people were there fun night .

 

I had a great walk along the newly opened stretch of boardwalk from LB Blvd to Lafayette. I really like how all the sounds

of the bicycles are muffled with the boards lined up with the direction of travel down the center. The walking was also

much quieter and smoother without all the broken and loose old boards. My friend had a condo right on the old boardwalk

and the bikes riding across the boardwalk made a racket when the windows were open. I was riding about

10-20 miles a day on the old boardwalk and it was pretty bumpy with the boards bouncing up and down. The

new hardwood with screws instead of nails was really the way to go.

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  • 2 weeks later...
BlueSkiesFading

BlueSkiesFading

Posted
Posted

where'd the august discussion thread go?

anyway looks like heavier activity over northern nj is heading more east/northeast whereas the overall activity is still sliding more southeast

 

I was wondering the same thing. Anyway, pretty decent storm here in southern Bergen County. I picked up 0.80" in 20-25 minutes and it's still coming down. Also had some nice C2G lightning and wind gusts around 35-40mph. 

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
  • Author
Posted

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NJC003-NYC005-061-119-281800-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0033.130828T1656Z-130828T1800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1256 PM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
  BRONX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
  WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
  SOUTHEASTERN BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

* AT 1251 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  FORT LEE...OR NEAR MOTT HAVEN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 4073 7400 4077 7401 4080 7399 4082 7403
      4086 7404 4107 7373 4094 7368 4090 7375
      4084 7376 4083 7378 4084 7381 4082 7379
      4079 7387 4080 7391 4075 7396
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 247DEG 13KT 4085 7393

 

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patrick05

patrick05

Posted
Posted

not sure where to ask but my friends and i are planning on going to EZOO in NYC on Sunday... looking at the forecasts, looks like there may be some rain.. GFS says it's gonna be a wet day while NAM stays mostly dry (Upton is keeping it at 30% iso tstorms for now)... i just want to know if we should be prepared to get drenched all day long (festival lasts from 10am to 12mn) or will it be a hit or miss type of thing...??

 

thank you very much!

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WE GOT HIM

WE GOT HIM

Posted
Posted

not sure where to ask but my friends and i are planning on going to EZOO in NYC on Sunday... looking at the forecasts, looks like there may be some rain.. GFS says it's gonna be a wet day while NAM stays mostly dry (Upton is keeping it at 30% iso tstorms for now)... i just want to know if we should be prepared to get drenched all day long (festival lasts from 10am to 12mn) or will it be a hit or miss type of thing...??

 

thank you very much!

Lol ill be there too - It will prob be a day similar to yesterday but not as wide spread rain fall. (more rain to the west)

- Left over storms in the AM and PM storms

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