Baroclinic Zone Posted August 3, 2013 Author Share Posted August 3, 2013 mav/met both with BOS just barely under 60F for a low tomorrow night. i think there's a fair chance some of the typical good radiating spots are in the mid 40s either monday am or tuesday am. Agree. Said it yesterday. Looked like Tues am ad the high crested over us. Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 gfs 7h-5h (actually really much of the profile) lapse rates are pretty decent later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 mav/met both with BOS just barely under 60F for a low tomorrow night. i think there's a fair chance some of the typical good radiating spots are in the mid 40s either monday am or tuesday am. The forecast just keeps getting colder and colder. Would be sweet to see TAN put up like a 46F or something. Up here the forecast is getting pretty ridiculously cold. BTV says H85 temps will drop to +4C but pesky NNW winds should keep temps from completely bottoming out at night. Still, Monday's forecast is for highs in the LOW 60s! That's like -15 to -20F on the high for Monday...climo is like 77-81. Sunday: Showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. Light and variable winds...becoming northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Monday: Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Monday Night And Tuesday: Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 I haven't been looking at models much this summer but just did you have to like seeing the lows track close to SNE later this week for severe chances somewhere thrown in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 This AFD is full of win, lol. Love getting back into more cold-season-like patterns and seeing the upslope discussions start back up. I know you all are equally as excited. .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WLQUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 03Z TONIGHT...AS SFC HEATING/INSTABILITYDECREASES. WL KEEP MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD DRY...WITHONLY SCHC POPS. ANOTHER 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD FRNTAPPROACHES THE SLV BY 12Z SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...850 TO 500MB RHFIELDS INCREASE ACRS NNY BY 12Z SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A BETTER CHCFOR SHOWERS. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY...WITH GREATEST QPFACRS THE MTNS. LOOKING AT SEVERAL IN HOUSE UPSLOPE PRECIPPROCEDURES SUGGEST FAVORABLE SFC TO 700MB FLW...GOOD 1000 TO 700MBRH...ALONG WITH ENHANCED UVVS ACRS THE MTNS ZNS THRU 03Z MONDAY.WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS INTO SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY MTNSOF NNY AND VT...WITH ADDITIONAL QPF BTWN 0.05 AND 0.25 POSSIBLE.INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHEXPECTED COOL SFC TEMPS AND CLOUDS. LATEST 00Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORTCAPE VALUES BTWN 400-800 J/KG...AND LIS NEAR 0C. WL MENTION LIKELYPOPS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZEROHGHTS AND COOL THERMAL PROFILES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEARABOUT SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. 85H TEMPS COOLANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY...UNDER LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC COLDFRNT. THINKING HIGHS WL RANGE FROM L/M 60S MTNS/NEK TO L70SCPV/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP CYCLONIC FLW CONTSAND UPSLOPE MOISTURE SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACRS OUR MTN ZNS. WL TRENDTWD MORE CLOUDS THRU 06Z MONDAY ACRS THE MTNS...WITH A CLRINGTREND TWD MORNING. IN ADDITION TO CLOUDS...BOTH GFS/NAM CONT TOSUPPORT A PRESS GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...RESULTING IN SOME BLMIXING. THIS WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT AS 85HTEMPS FALL TO 4C. THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM L40S SLK/NEK TOU40S/L50S WARMER VALLEYS. MONDAY...NW FLW WL CONT WITH WEAKEMBEDDED VORT AND SOME LEFTOVER RH WL IMPACT NORTHERNVT...INCLUDING THE NEK. WL MENTION SCHC POPS AND KEEP REST OF FADRY. TEMPS WL STRUGGLE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 The forecast just keeps getting colder and colder. Would be sweet to see TAN put up like a 46F or something. Up here the forecast is getting pretty ridiculously cold. BTV says H85 temps will drop to +4C but pesky NNW winds should keep temps from completely bottoming out at night. Still, Monday's forecast is for highs in the LOW 60s! That's like -15 to -20F on the high for Monday...climo is like 77-81. Sunday: Showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. Light and variable winds...becoming northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Monday: Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Monday Night And Tuesday: Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. Yeah overall the trough has been well-modeled. No huge shifts with it. Timing and strength of incoming air mass has held pretty steady for the last 5 or so days. IIRC, ec ens had this at 10+ days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Yeah overall the trough has been well-modeled. No huge shifts with it. Timing and strength of incoming air mass has held pretty steady for the last 5 or so days. IIRC, ec ens had this at 10+ days Still waiting for the heat/humidity to return after last week's 1-2 day cool down and lack of pattern change. Feels like South Georgia weather right now with mid 60s... but that's South Georgia Island between Antarctica and South America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 43 on mount washington at 2pm. The footsteps to winter are upon us. Repent while u can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Feels like South Georgia weather right now with mid 60s... but that's South Georgia Island between Antarctica and South America. 40s appear likely here Monday/Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 What a crappy day. NWS had mostly sunny and 81 as late as yesterday's PM update. Rain all morning, now 71 with no sign of the sun. Quite the bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 What a crappy day. NWS had mostly sunny and 81 as late as yesterday's PM update. Rain all morning, now 71 with no sign of the sun. Quite the bust. Sun isn't out yet down there? I was pretty pessimistic about today - it was not an easy forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Man might need a hat and gloves at work on Monday depending on my assignment. We won't clear the 40s for highs above 3500ft with a steady WNW breeze. Wind chills in the 30s all day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Sun isn't out yet down there? I was pretty pessimistic about today - it was not an easy forecast. There were definitely some flags for today up this way with mid to high clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Pure frontal nudity down here. High into the 90's. dews into the 70's and a massive storm just roared thru with raindrops as big as ping pong balls and another coming in from the NW. All kinds of cool sea breeze boundaries that roar thru and then Storms come after. I will def summer here one day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 What a crappy day. NWS had mostly sunny and 81 as late as yesterday's PM update. Rain all morning, now 71 with no sign of the sun. Quite the bust.2:11 AFD said t-storms were unlikely. Look at radar lol. Been getting some pretty heavy rain around the Waterbury area over the past hour too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Hmmm, outside with the dog and heard good clap of thunder, a little cloudy to the west; checked radar and low and behold some storms just to my west near Stafford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Radar estimates about an inch of rain this afternoon just NW of Waterbury. Some more heavy showers and storms up near the Mass. border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Huh? .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 6 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE HELD TOGETHER RIGHT ALONG THEMASSACHUSETTS/CONNECTICUT LINE. BECAUSE THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONSARE STILL A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES IN THIS REGION...EXPECT THATRAIN MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND. IF IT IS REACHING THEGROUND...EXPECT THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Huh? .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 6 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE HELD TOGETHER RIGHT ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS/CONNECTICUT LINE. BECAUSE THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES IN THIS REGION...EXPECT THAT RAIN MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND. IF IT IS REACHING THE GROUND...EXPECT THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH. I'll go out on a limb and say its hitting the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Huh? .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 6 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE HELD TOGETHER RIGHT ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS/CONNECTICUT LINE. BECAUSE THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES IN THIS REGION...EXPECT THAT RAIN MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND. IF IT IS REACHING THE GROUND...EXPECT THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH. Can't imagine 50+ dBZ rain is just going to evaporate before hitting the ground. BOX must have the summer interns working tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Can't imagine 50+ dBZ rain is just going to evaporate before hitting the ground. BOX must have the summer interns working tonight. Pouring at BDL on our skycam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Huh? .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 6 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE HELD TOGETHER RIGHT ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS/CONNECTICUT LINE. BECAUSE THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES IN THIS REGION...EXPECT THAT RAIN MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND. IF IT IS REACHING THE GROUND...EXPECT THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH. wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Bizarre updates from BOX this afternoon, no offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Pouring at BDL on our skycam. OKX flagging 0.77'' hail just east of BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Pouring at BDL on our skycam. Getting some claps of thunder just to my west, Windsor/East Windsor getting heavy rain (storm) any lightning with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 LOL some virga! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Eh it's Saturday Night and there's a decent bar down the street from BOX....maybe they started early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Hmmm, outside with the dog and heard good clap of thunder, a little cloudy to the west; checked radar and low and behold some storms just to my west near Stafford. Yeah, it's coming down pretty good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Nice hail spike from the virga in Ellington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Nice cell just to my west in Union Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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