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Early August Wx Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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Please elaborate....

Pretty good wind shear and helicity. Dynamics aloft are good, but there's not much instability and the timing is early. Notice how the significant tornado parameter spikes in the morning, especially across RI and southeastern Mass. A high shear/low CAPE setup that sometimes performs around these parts.

 

It's just interesting. I don't think it's a great severe setup. GFS is less impressive.

 

NAM:

namNE_con_scp_024.gif

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Pretty good wind shear and helicity. Dynamics aloft are good, but there's not much instability and the timing is early. Notice how the significant tornado parameter spikes in the morning, especially across RI and southeastern Mass. A high shear/low CAPE setup that sometimes performs around these parts.

 

It's just interesting. I don't think it's a great severe setup. GFS is less impressive.

 

NAM:

namNE_con_scp_024.gif

Thanks for the explanation. Yeah I noticed the shear and helicity, but was thrown off by the timing of the possible event.

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A bit interesting - especially for coastal areas. We'll see if dew points manage to stay up - but with that LLJ approaching form the west (which has been on the models since yesterday) I could see an isolated morning severe threat south and east of I-84. 

noticed NYC dropped to 59 dP

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Looks like the signal has faded as we go closer.  Looks like the best stuff will go S of here.

i think the signal is still there. i'll actually be kind of surprised if there aren't storms around sunday afternoon. might not have a whole lot of lightning with them but gusty winds and hail are possible i think. 

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Looks like I'll be able to chalk today as # 11 in a row of sub-80*.

 

74.9/55 off a high so far of 76.1.  With the shortening days, I suspect we are getting less post-3:00pm. heating than we do in the height of summer.

84 here today . TD right around 60. Perfect.

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