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Early August Wx Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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WNash

WNash

Posted
Posted

I remember watching a game in a major les event that developed during the game. I think they were playing the pats and maybe 8-10 years ago?

Could be... Before my time up here. As a native Nashvillian I'm a Titans fan, which makes for some fun conversations with Buffalonians since the Bills haven't been in the playoffs since the Music City Miracle. For some reason, they blame me.

Of course, I remember a football game a few years back played in an October snowstorm in Foxboro. I wish I could forget it.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

The sub-title of this thread asks, "Has the back of Summer been broken."

 

Obviously we collectively know that to mean, have we seen the warmest/apex interval, and have thus begun the seasonal decent.  Because the latter half of that compound sentiment, 'thus begun the decent', cannot yet be confirmed, I am going to ahead and offer no, the back is yet to be broken. 

 

This is also evidenced in that there are teleconnections and operational "tempo" singing a different tune for perhaps a weeks worth of positive departures.  The current trough in the area is imparting a beautiful early autumn-like air mass, possibly holding elevations in the upper 60s for highs!   It's wonderful, but unfortunately it should be fairly obvious to most where we are slated to go from here.  This trough is going to roll-up and conjoin with a +NAO SPV that is quite likely to situated near Baffin Island/D. Straight area of NE Canada.   This will pull heights rapidly upward over the area.  

 

Mitigating the sensible impact of this ... there isn't a lot of in situ heat available to then flood east once we establish ridging aloft and deep layer continental flow.  But, it will lay a favorable canvas for daily processing/diabatic input and eventual thickness expansion.  After 2 or 3 days of it, you are thus engineering heat locally, with gradually elevating nightly lows, and higher afternoon highs.  About 6 or 7 days from now, about the time when any confidence naturally goes way down, there is questions as to whether some more meaningful continental cT air can get into the mix.  The Euro, ironically, is the most emphatic at setting up risk for that to happen, showing first the geopotential height rises in the east, then a big level height bulge rippling out of the MW toward the area between D7 and 10. At those long leads, it has 20+C air at 850mb, up over Lake Superior -- this "could" be an early lead hint that a more Sonoran like heat release could take place at those later innings.    

 

I suspect THAT will be the last of the summer, then the back breaks and we start the seasonal decent.  In fact, already, their are tentative indications that we flip back cooler during the last week of August.    

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

Definitely a strong autumnal vibe around here today with people wearing sweatshirts and light jackets. Someone is even burning wood, giving the air that fall smell.

 

Classic CAA stratocumulus day with temperatures stuck in the low 60s on the west slope of the Berkshires, so I doubt we'll reach the P&C high forecast of 69° F. Peru is still in the mid to upper 50s last check, so they may have a hard time breaking 60° F. I don't think we'll shatter any records tonight as wind will probably be an issue and the dews are a little high. Regardless, I think mid to upper 40s is a good bet tonight for many around here.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

65/48 at ORH at noontime...heck even BDL is a comfy 70/50.

 

Hills will struggle out of low 70s today....AWT.

 

Yeah this is pretty impressive for August 14th... we are holding in the upper 50s to low 60s right now as bands of showers have been developing in the northern Greens with another vort max moving through.  I've got 59/57 at home, and LOL at the folks living up at Bolton Valley at 2,100ft where its 52.5F at 1:30pm in mid-August.

 

This pattern is very much like winter-time NW-flow where we've had several rounds of squally-type weather...

 

Aug14.gif

 

Chilly temps for midday in August under these squalls.

 

 

SNE is not much warmer... we've had a couple impressive airmasses in here lately.

 

 

 

A botanist friend of mine was remarking about the noticeable change in the leaves lately (not fall foliage but the green is definitely dulled now to like a green-yellow) and said that we may have an early foliage season due to the stresses of this summer.  He said the biggest stress has come from the wide swings in temperatures and weather... from a cold/wet June that flipped to very hot and dry for a stint in July (like one week its 70F every day and then the next it was 90F every day) and now back to cool/cold.    He was saying they've been noticing a lot of stressed vegetation this summer and they are sure its due to the wild swings in temperature regimes.  Trees especially hate going from cold to very hot in a short period of time. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Here's a question for the group. With mid month deviations running in the -2 to -3 range will the mild up coming in be enough by the end of month to completely erase the negative deviation? With multiple below normal days yet to come before the mild up I am guessing August comes in slightly below normal.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Here's a question for the group. With mid month deviations running in the -2 to -3 range will the mild up coming in be enough by the end of month to completely erase the negative deviation? With multiple below normal days yet to come before the mild up I am guessing August comes in slightly below normal.

 

I think that depends on how the final 4-5 days of the month go. It looks warm from about Aug 18-24 or so..but then it could either stay warm or we see another cooldown.

 

My guess is we see the monthly anomalies near 0.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Here's a question for the group. With mid month deviations running in the -2 to -3 range will the mild up coming in be enough by the end of month to completely erase the negative deviation? With multiple below normal days yet to come before the mild up I am guessing August comes in slightly below normal.

 

It will all depend on the overnight lows.  Those seem to kill monthly departures faster than anything else.  Up here our average low is 54F today and starts to fall pretty quickly in the next couple weeks... if we can avoid the week-long mins of 60+ in a humid pattern, then we should be below normal, at least in interior VT. 

 

One of the main climate sites, MPV, is running -3.6F so far in AUG with average high/low so far of 74/52. It may be hard to completely erase these departures... but who knows.

 

To Blizz's delight, only 2 days above normal so far this month and today will be the 3rd day of highs in the 60s, with only one day above 80F.

 

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Flying MXZ

Flying MXZ

Posted
Posted

Very fall like feel to today out here.

 

A snippet from BGM today:

 

I HAD TO UNDERCUT EXPECTED MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY
MORE...TO VERY NEAR DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS. INDEED QUITE A
FALLISH AFTERNOON...COMPLETE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COVERAGE HAS ALSO BEEN A BIT MORE THAN
EXPECTED...WITH SOME EVEN CROSSING CNY TO INTO NEPA.
 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Just about all mos will bust. This cool shot is legit. But going to disagree with ginxy...lots of folks at the beach or lake are annoyed. I prefer warmer in summer.today is cooler than the rest of the week but still very comfortable, love it. Viva la low dews

Like I said, it's no swimming day at least for me but fine for working which I am.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

euro is quite warm again. a lot of +15 to +18C air at 850 for the better chunk of next week. and looks like it's spitting out some low 90s thu/fri in some spots. not extreme heat by any measure but sort of what you'd expect for the 1st week of august or something...kind of a "dog days" look

Yup..and that's 6-7 days out..Imagine how it will warm as we get closer in

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

ORH only hit 67F before dropping back to 65F...so that looks like the high unless we see an unlikely late spike 3F higher. That's impressive. About 4-5F cooler than I thought today.  

Same deal here. The clouds today are the reason. Nothing was printing out mostly cloudy..Hopefully that will also keep the lows warmer tonight ..the wind won't die down totally either which will help

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Yeah this is pretty impressive for August 14th... we are holding in the upper 50s to low 60s right now as bands of showers have been developing in the northern Greens with another vort max moving through.  I've got 59/57 at home, and LOL at the folks living up at Bolton Valley at 2,100ft where its 52.5F at 1:30pm in mid-August.

 

This pattern is very much like winter-time NW-flow where we've had several rounds of squally-type weather...

 

Chilly temps for midday in August under these squalls.

 

SNE is not much warmer... we've had a couple impressive airmasses in here lately.

 

A botanist friend of mine was remarking about the noticeable change in the leaves lately (not fall foliage but the green is definitely dulled now to like a green-yellow) and said that we may have an early foliage season due to the stresses of this summer.  He said the biggest stress has come from the wide swings in temperatures and weather... from a cold/wet June that flipped to very hot and dry for a stint in July (like one week its 70F every day and then the next it was 90F every day) and now back to cool/cold.    He was saying they've been noticing a lot of stressed vegetation this summer and they are sure its due to the wild swings in temperature regimes.  Trees especially hate going from cold to very hot in a short period of time. 

 

I was thinking that same thing, too -- kind of has a backside upslope event vibe about it.  But, I suspect with additional speed max there's a bit of instability that's more than merely oriographic in nature.  

 

It's all really more of an indictment on how anomalously cold this air mass.  Has no business doing this under an August sun, and the fact that even in SE VT there are shallow convective showers with virga shrouding is both a strange sky for this time of year, as much as it's the sun cooking the ground under a cold troposphere.  Interesting.

 

I also agree on the foliage.  I post last week that there are a couple of maples in town that are already tinting orange, even down here in N Mass. It has been a stressy year... cool overly wet June followed by near record July heat

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