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Early August Wx Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

Once we get the cane hit..mid September..I want it cool to cold

 

You should move to central Illinois.  It's hot & humid and A/C weather from April through October, then turns cold for winter like a light switch.  The only problem is snow - they only average about 24".  Eastern OH might be better but I think they have longer "falls" and "springs" which you don't seem to like but they are shorter than here.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

Most have been calling it meh and saying no big deal . A few have been discussing a much above normal pattern settling in for an extended period

 

Heat at the end of August and in September really is no big deal.  It doesn't have the same feel as mid-July.  Summer's back is broken.  I, for one, would welcome the pattern change because that would set us up well for winter.

 

Meanwhile, an awesome day out there.  A nice morning low of 52° and currently in the 50s & 60s out there.  Doesn't get much better!

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

You should move to central Illinois.  It's hot & humid and A/C weather from April through October, then turns cold for winter like a light switch.  The only problem is snow - they only average about 24".  Eastern OH might be better but I think they have longer "falls" and "springs" which you don't seem to like but they are shorter than here.

I like a long summer and long winter.  We could totally eliminate spring and most would be happy. Fall is good but by Nov..it's time for winter

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Heat at the end of August and in September really is no big deal.  It doesn't have the same feel as mid-July.  Summer's back is broken.  I, for one, would welcome the pattern change because that would set us up well for winter.

 

Meanwhile, an awesome day out there.  A nice morning low of 52° and currently in the 50s & 60s out there.  Doesn't get much better!

 

 

Agreed...unless we get a really anomalous heat ridge in late August like some of those in the late 40s/early 50s or even a slightly watered down version like a late August 2010, then seeing a 91F reading on a west wind in the downslope spots like BDL or BOS is really just meh.

 

We broke summer's back when we flipped the pattern around 7/21 and then we wasted this 3 week stretch where it is typically our last climo period for big/impressive heat.

 

You never say never, and its possible we try and pop something more like 2010...but right now its not there on the guidance. Its definitely going to be warmer and we'll have some classic late August mugginess as has been well advertised both by ensemble guidance and some of the mets/hobbyists, but the real heat I think is probably done.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Agreed...unless we get a really anomalous heat ridge in late August like some of those in the late 40s/early 50s or even a slightly watered down version like a late August 2010, then seeing a 91F reading on a west wind in the downslope spots like BDL or BOS is really just meh.

 

We broke summer's back when we flipped the pattern around 7/21 and then we wasted this 3 week stretch where it is typically our last climo period for big/impressive heat.

 

You never say never, and its possible we try and pop something more like 2010...but right now its not there on the guidance. Its definitely going to be warmer and we'll have some classic late August mugginess as has been well advertised both by ensemble guidance and some of the mets/hobbyists, but the real heat I think is probably done.

 

You know who is going to be using nightime departures to justify the warmth.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

You know who is going to be using nightime departures to justify the warmth.

 

Its fine, we know its going to be above average during that period upcoming...and we also know that night time lows will probably be more anomalous than the daytime highs.

 

Its going to feel muggy. But thankfully for those of us who don't like heat, we wasted over 3 weeks of good heat climo on this current pattern...so those late August episodes are more tolerable as long as they aren't a 2010 or worse.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Hmm. Beware the Euro perhaps.

 

The euro is doing horrible...horrible in the tropics lately. It has virtually no semblance of Utor in the West Pac. So, it's important to note when considering any possibly recurvature up that way like the 06z GFS does. In the end, the GEFS and Euro ensembles aren't too far apart...but just noting for future reference. Check out this result from the ECMWF site. Now granted the euro did handle larger tropical systems well last year, but don't ask me why it can barely see Utor out there. Notice the scores in the tropical section aren't very good. There was an upgrade to tweak a few things to improve this...but I can't say why it still seems to have issues.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/changes/ifs_cycle_38r2/scorecard.html

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WNash

WNash

Posted
Posted

I see you live in Buffalo. Is the wx there like SNE..or do you just like us?

That's a fair question. I lived for years in SNE and still have an interest in the weather there. But in Buffalo we do get a lot of the same air masses/synoptic weather as you, just no modification from the ocean.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

That's a fair question. I lived for years in SNE and still have an interest in the weather there. But in Buffalo we do get a lot of the same air masses/synoptic weather as you, just no modification from the ocean.

I go to a Bills game every year. Couple buddies are big fans and we get a group of 15-20 dudes each year. Going to the Sept 15 game this year. Prob the date the cat 3 roars due north up the CT valley
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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Well when dentrite says late month looks toasty, that a pretty good sign. Big anomalies that may occur would obv be dampen'd out on euro ens bc they almost always dampen out bigger deviations the op may have this far out.

Id gladly take a w/wnw and 90/60 but id think sw flow and days and days of 87/68 are better bet. Better than 88/74 or 95/73 but still ugh

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WNash

WNash

Posted
Posted

I see you live in Buffalo. Is the wx there like SNE..or do you just like us?

Also, because you asked... I intended to sniff around here and find someone with a PWS set up in an urban environment. Where I live in Buffalo is a lot like triple decker land in the Boston metro, and I have been meaning to find someone who has solved siting issues in a tricky location before I spend a bunch of money.

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
Posted

Hmm. Beware the Euro perhaps.

 

The euro is doing horrible...horrible in the tropics lately. It has virtually no semblance of Utor in the West Pac. So, it's important to note when considering any possibly recurvature up that way like the 06z GFS does. In the end, the GEFS and Euro ensembles aren't too far apart...but just noting for future reference. Check out this result from the ECMWF site. Now granted the euro did handle larger tropical systems well last year, but don't ask me why it can barely see Utor out there. Notice the scores in the tropical section aren't very good. There was an upgrade to tweak a few things to improve this...but I can't say why it still seems to have issues.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/changes/ifs_cycle_38r2/scorecard.html

 

I believe they did mention with the upgrade that the tropics skills showed slight decline/potential decline. 

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WNash

WNash

Posted
Posted

I go to a Bills game every year. Couple buddies are big fans and we get a group of 15-20 dudes each year. Going to the Sept 15 game this year. Prob the date the cat 3 roars due north up the CT valley

Kev! I would have thought you would be going to the Ralph during LES season, when Orchard Park gets 35 MPH sustained winds and 1-2 inch per hour snows! That's when a :weenie: goes to a Bills game!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I believe they did mention with the upgrade that the tropics skills showed slight decline/potential decline. 

 

I thought they made an upgrade to address the issues in the tropics, but I could be wrong. In either case, makes you wonder going forward....recurving tropicals can have a downstream impact on the H5 pattern, so if the EC has issues with resolving tropicals...it makes you wonder what (if any) effects will there be? But, maybe this is nothing more than conversation as I don't see any glaring issues when comparing both ensembles. Just wondering.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

I go to a Bills game every year. Couple buddies are big fans and we get a group of 15-20 dudes each year. Going to the Sept 15 game this year. Prob the date the cat 3 roars due north up the CT valley

Kev! I would have thought you would be going to the Ralph during LES season, when Orchard Park gets 35 MPH sustained winds and 1-2 inch per hour snows! That's when a :weenie: goes to a Bills game!

I remember watching a game in a major les event that developed during the game. I think they were playing the pats and maybe 8-10 years ago?

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Kev! I would have thought you would be going to the Ralph during LES season, when Orchard Park gets 35 MPH sustained winds and 1-2 inch per hour snows! That's when a :weenie: goes to a Bills game!

I tried last year. We went in mid Dec and it was in the 50's on game day. Awful. It's not my decision which game we go to unfortunately
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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

Hopefully the winds keep up tonight to keep temps up

With high pressure approaching from the west, the models are in pretty strong agreement with winds below 5kt for most of tonight into early tomorrow. Should see some 40's across the outlying areas.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

If I was in charge this might be  how I would draw up  mid August weather, I mean how great is this. There is not a person in SNE complaining about the weather this week, not a one.

 

  • This 
    This Afternoon Sunny, with a high near 75. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 48. Northwest wind 3 to 8 mph.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 75. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the morning.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 80.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 59.
Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 79.
Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
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