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Early August Wx Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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What? You'll barely hit 74 tomorrow. 80-83? LOL. Good luck. Lows in the 40s interior..50s coast. Looks the same to me on the ensembles from 7 days out. In fact, even colder shot over NY state.

 

Yeah I think I mentioned like +4 to +7 850 temps...and that is exactly what we are getting from north to south.

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Yeah 80-83 and 50-55.. A touch below but nothing like what was portrayed

What? You'll barely hit 74 tomorrow. 80-83? LOL. Good luck. Lows in the 40s interior..50s coast. Looks the same to me on the ensembles from 7 days out. In fact, even colder shot over NY state.

Yes I texted my daughter and mentioned low 40s where shes at. But we're in sne so that to me isn't relevant.

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Well yeah the hill folks will stay in the 70's to be sure..but most of the folks here don't live in the hills like us..so low 80's for them

 

Most people will be in the 70s tomorrow...probably Thursday too except the real torch spots like TAN and BDL, but those places will also probably be in the 40s at night.

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Odd look to the 12z oper. Euro.   D5 shows a clear expansion of quasi-WAR in retrograde, with heights over the MA and NE fully capable of allowing thicknesses to crank up toward a hotter scenario...

 

yet, the PP would never allow that.  The lower troposphere is quite out of phase with the 500mb.  not sure if that is correct, we'll have to see.  Doesn't seem right.  But while not very high pressure, it is large in areal coverage, and it is centered in a location that would drill a lot of onshore flow from NJ on up ... 

 

It probably won't last beyond that one day (5), because the mid level is heading somewhere else. 

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