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Early August Wx Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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New development over the last few days has been more and more ENS members trying to push the AO NAO negative and pop up the PNA in the way out range, interesting times as we head into Sept. That signal has gotten a little stronger each day. could be a real short pattern relax then back into deep trough eastern style.

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The west coast ridge may relax and allow for warmer air late month, but tough to have high confidence in that. Still looks like any high humidity comes from a low heading near us..then a fropa...rinse and repeat. We may even have a time of east winds which will keep it cool on the coast.

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Yeah seems about the 20th into early Sept we go back to deep summer after this mess last week and upcoming week

:lol: Say you are out of touch, then one person mentions a date, and now you are agreeing on a multi-week hot/humid period starting around that period.

Shocked you didn't agree with Ginx, about being uncertain if deep summer comes back for an extended period. He has been on fire lately.

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:lol: Say you are out of touch, then one person mentions a date, and now you are agreeing on a multi-week hot/humid period starting around that period.

Shocked you didn't agree with Ginx, about being uncertain if deep summer comes back for an extended period. He has been on fire lately.

He did great on the mild down pattern shift, no doubt. But as far as I can tell that was all he really called for
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Summer will come back for a spell (it always does after August cool-downs), but the duration and intensity will be interesting to monitor. The trick will be if we are able to get heat and high dews combined...or do we just get days like today and yesterday where humidity comes up but temps are meh in rainfall.

Either way, another week of summer without significant heat is a win...this sounds perfect:

"Maximum temperatures will be several degrees below normal Tuesday through Friday with highs in the low to middle 70s. Mins will be mainly in the middle 40s to lower 50s. &&"

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Summer will come back for a spell (it always does after August cool-downs), but the duration and intensity will be interesting to monitor. The trick will be if we are able to get heat and high dews combined...or do we just get days like today and yesterday where humidity comes up but temps are meh in rainfall.

Either way, another week of summer without significant heat is a win...this sounds perfect:

"Maximum temperatures will be several degrees below normal Tuesday through Friday with highs in the low to middle 70s. Mins will be mainly in the middle 40s to lower 50s. &&"

 

Also, this week the bulk of trees's leaves suddenly took on that 'summer is almost done' hue.  I'm always amazed at how that happens in early August. 

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Talking about high dews though...wow at some of these current dews:

Springfield...77F

Bedford...75F

Hartford...76F

Willimantic...75F

Blizz's backyard must be over 80.

 

Yeah, it's crazy humid out there, especially with the steam/fog from all that rain we got today. 

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Wonderful week overall coming back, except for Tuesday. Looks like summer tries to come back after the 20th or so, but details TBD.

Forecast keeps cooling down a tick next week...

This is beautiful though, upper 60s and sun today, mid 40s tonight...then a little more humid with mid 70s and low 50s on Monday...then more 67-72 highs with 40s at night Tue-Fri.

Impressive airmass to do 60s/40s under sunny skies in mid August...repeatedly at that.

Today

Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight

Clear. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 40s. West winds around 10 mph until midnight...becoming light and variable.

Sunday

Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Light and variable winds.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Light and variable winds.

Monday

Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Light and variable winds.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 50s.

Tuesday

Cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs around 70. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.

Wednesday

Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night

Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.

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Thursday morning could be impressive cold...still showing up on both the OP Euro and ensembles. Like +4 to +7 850 temps with high pressure building in from the west. If it decouples Wed night, then some records could be challenged in the rad spots. Still a ways out though.

 

Boring in the meantime...maybe some convection chances on Tuesday.

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I think everyone had some heat coming back toward the end of August. Summer's back was officially broken by this recent stretch though. A few warm or muggy days in late Aug or early Sep is NBD. By then the descent is on.

 

Yeah exactly, but it will be spun when comparing to normal highs. It can get quite muggy in late August, but the highs are more tolerable.

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Thursday morning could be impressive cold...still showing up on both the OP Euro and ensembles. Like +4 to +7 850 temps with high pressure building in from the west. If it decouples Wed night, then some records could be challenged in the rad spots. Still a ways out though.

 

Boring in the meantime...maybe some convection chances on Tuesday.

The 8/15 record in threadex for CON is a bit susceptible compared to days around it (41F). It's mostly 30s after that.
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I think everyone had some heat coming back toward the end of August. Summer's back was officially broken by this recent stretch though. A few warm or muggy days in late Aug or early Sep is NBD. By then the descent is on.

Yeah there has not been one poster saying its 70F from here on out.

Everyone has said summer-like weather will return for a spell. But yeah, by that time the bite isn't as long or as strong usually. BDL probably isn't going to do 7 days of 90F+ or something like that.

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The 8/15 record in threadex for CON is a bit susceptible compared to days around it (41F). It's mostly 30s after that.

 

 

I noticed the CON record...that is definitely a vulnerable record. The cold snap we had on 8/6 (CON down to 44F) had a record low colder than 8/15. So CON wouldn't need to beat the 8/6 temp much to get a new record next week....but it still a ways out.

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