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Early August Wx Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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Yeah I was thinking that but usually ORE does a bit better than CEF provided there aren't extenuating circumstances like cloud cover.

 

CEF came in as the coldest in the nation a few years ago.  I forget when but I seem to recall that.

 

Yup - it's hard in E CT to be the coldest in SNE.

 

Maybe in SNE if you're including the entire region but I wouldn't say the state.  We hold our own over here!

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CEF came in as the coldest in the nation a few years ago.  I forget when but I seem to recall that.

 

 

Maybe in SNE if you're including the entire region but I wouldn't say the state.  We hold our own over here!

 

Yeah you guys do well - but there are some mornings when MMK and IJD are on par with Falls Village and some of  the other sites when the atmosphere is fairly homogeneous spatially and it's a great rad cooling night. 

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Yeah you guys do well - but there are some mornings when MMK and IJD are on par with Falls Village and some of  the other sites when the atmosphere is fairly homogeneous spatially and it's a great rad cooling night. 

 

Yeah, I remember a few nights this winter when IJD was way colder than the other official stations in CT... they seem to radiate well.

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Yeah you guys do well - but there are some mornings when MMK and IJD are on par with Falls Village and some of  the other sites when the atmosphere is fairly homogeneous spatially and it's a great rad cooling night. 

 

It's not every night but IJD does have good nights - CEF does better though on average.  MMK used to be better.  When I was at Lyndon MMK or POU were good analogs for "countryside" of CT.

 

I just check my current temp and it's 70°.  Let's see how the NE Hills can do tonight...

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Does lebanon radiate very well in valley

They're tricky. Sometimes they have some sneaky really cold nights, but usually they play 2nd fiddle.

I may go with HIE or BML for the NNE low tonight. SLK may battle some clouds toward midnight. MOS seems strangely warm for those N NH sites considering what it's spitting out at CON and the rad spots of SNE. GFL and 40B should be pretty cold too.

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They're tricky. Sometimes they have some sneaky really cold nights, but usually they play 2nd fiddle.

I may go with HIE or BML for the NNE low tonight. SLK may battle some clouds toward midnight. MOS seems strangely warm for those N NH sites considering what it's spitting out at CON and the rad spots of SNE. GFL and 40B should be pretty cold too.

 

I was noticing the higher dp's way up north.  I wonder if that's going to affect them.  40B's dp is 54° right now.  Otherwise, that's another good location.  Those other's are good picks too (the usual suspects) but what about Island Pond?

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I was noticing the higher dp's way up north. I wonder if that's going to affect them. 40B's dp is 54° right now. Otherwise, that's another good location. Those other's are good picks too (the usual suspects) but what about Island Pond?

The Averill or Sutton, VT COOP is my guess.

We've had dews in the low 30s this afternoon even here at MVL and MPV.

I think the NE corner of VT could take it...some of those spots are like 1500ft amid rolling hills and perfect to get real cold. Temps only hit low 60s up there today.

Edit: I see dews are increasing again back into the 40-43F range at MPV/MVL after getting down to 33/34.

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I don't think MPV radiates particularly well. I would bet on HIE or BML.

MPV depends on the height of the BL inversion...at 1200ft if the inversion is tight at like 1000ft, then MVL will beat them, but they can do surprisingly well if we are calm up to like 950-925mb.

HIE and BML beat them both though most of the time.

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It's an interesting trick trying to predict the lows for tonight.   

 

Obviously the table is set with high pressure building in, 0 cloud, and such dry air, for a impressive radiator night. 

 

However, couple of off-set factors:  

1) Foliage is still lush and as the sun sets and the wind slows/ceases as much mixing, we may see the DPs bounce back some.  Not certain of this ...it will be interesting to see if that happens, because there is still some weak advection taking place.

  

2) The sun is still relatively high in angle, and we have had unabated radiation/absorption during the daylight hours.  If the DPs bounce back some and then there's a lot of radiation being absorbed as that happened, I'm wondering if that could mitigate some of the cooling potential.  

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Im not sold on SLK tonite for the northeast, but for NNE wonder i someone in ne kingdom

 

I'd nominate HUL, but they had significant rain this morning (0.79" 8A-2P) and so will probably fog up too soon to compete.  HIE/BML it is.

 

PF:  Migt be Old Speck, 2,000' lower than MWN and probably about 10 degrees to the left of it from your location.  Another 10 degrees left gets you Sugarloaf, but its 55' advanage over Old Speck is far less significant than its 30-35 miles extra distance. 

(And to me, "Northwestern Maine" means north and northwest of Moosehead, and there's nothing over 2,500' there.)  ;)

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Heh, long shot but ... are there any posters that live up in central Manitoba ?   Still seeing an impressive lobe of cold rotating through that area of southern Canada.  Sub 534dm on the NAM!   

 

There's QPF bundled into it as well.  I'm wondering if there are noodles mixed in when that happens.   I think even for southern Canada that's gotta be a wicked anomaly.  

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I was noticing the higher dp's way up north.  I wonder if that's going to affect them.  40B's dp is 54° right now.  Otherwise, that's another good location.  Those other's are good picks too (the usual suspects) but what about Island Pond?

They will still plummet at some point after a little CAA and clearing.

I was strictly talking METAR stations, so that takes Island Pond out of it. On good rad nights I usually expect HIE/BML to approach MWN's Tw which is about 3C right now.

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I think someone posted this earlier but ...wow, Thursday looks impressive for tor -- at least as far as it pertains/can look in this part of the country.  Bulk deep-layer shear must be impressive with 500mb westerlies nearing 40kts, and the lower PP favoring S/SE inflow.  

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CEF's records go back to 1941 and I believe the all time low for Aug 6th is 48 (1957).  We have a real shot at that tonight.  BDL hit 47 that morning though so I doubt we see any major records fall.

 

-edit... bad info.  It's actually 1972, 1993 I think at 45.  Might be close but far from a lock.

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Meh, I just ran the numbers .... CAPE's pretty modest and the shear isn't quite as appealing.  Does approach moderate from CT to western MA.   The air mass appears pretty polluted with rain.  It's more of a synoptic look for the time being. 

 

Things obviously can morph before then.  

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I think someone posted this earlier but ...wow, Thursday looks impressive for tor -- at least as far as it pertains/can look in this part of the country.  Bulk deep-layer shear must be impressive with 500mb westerlies nearing 40kts, and the lower PP favoring S/SE inflow.  

Do you mean Friday?

 

I was looking at some soundings and they're pretty impressive wrt to veering winds, although the column looks very saturated. Heavy, heavy curvature on the hodographs too, especially up in NY where GFS goes wacky with 500m2s2 0-3km SRH.

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This is what I was mentioning earlier re the trickiness of predicting tonight's lows.  This is MPV ... notice that as soon as the wind slackened a little, the DP bounced back some. 

 

05 16:51 N 12 10.00 Fair CLR              66 43                     43% NA NA 30.05 1017.5      

05 15:51 NW 12 G 18 10.00 Fair CLR  66 39         37% NA NA 30.05 1017.7      

05 14:51 NW 10 G 22 10.00 Fair CLR  65 36         34% NA NA 30.04 1017.4      

05 13:51 NW 17 10.00 Fair CLR           64 33                  32% NA NA 30.04 1017.4      

05 12:51 NW 16 G 23 10.00 NA NA       63 35              35% NA NA 30.05 1017.5    

 

It's going to be anomalously cool, but I think the DPs are not going to be in the mid 30s at 8pm -- interesting to test that assumption. 

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