ma blizzard Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 73.3 / 42 , amazing weather for some pick-up ball this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 the euro really wasn't off by 3 weeks. it may have been overzealous in dropping a trough in to the northeast during mid-july...i can't recall specifically that date. i know we had the big heat right there between the 14th and the 20th-ish...so i assume it's possible that sometime around the 10th it may have had a run or two trying to dump a trough into the time period that verified with the heat wave...but after the 20th?? that's like 2-2.5 weeks ago...and here are the daily departures at BOS dating back to 7/21: 0, -2, 1, 3, -11, -7, -1, -3, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2, 0, 1. Looks pretty solid to me. and today will obviously pull a big negative but clearly you can see a big switch happened over 2 weeks ago. Yeah there were always the token runs that tried to drive something SE at day 9-10, but I think we all just took it with a grain of salt...like we always do with a prog that far out. I actually think (and this is anecdotally) that it hit the change rather well as we went into later July. Remember the 540 contour we were all talking about like 7+ days ago? There it is just north of the border of MN now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 no ok. well...i disagree then. you can see the change in dewpoints as well. no big deal. it shifted a couple of weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Yeah there were always the token runs that tried to drive something SE at day 9-10, but I think we all just took it with a grain of salt...like we always do with a prog that far out. I actually think (and this is anecdotally) that it hit the change rather well as we went into later July. Remember the 540 contour we were all talking about like 7+ days ago? There it is just north of the border of MN now. during the heat (5h 10-20th): after the heat (5h 20-31st): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 during the heat (5h 10-20th): 500_10th_20th.gif after the heat (5h 20-31st): 500_20th_31st.gif Looks like a change to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Looks like a change to me. it's "dubious meteorology" by me again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 70/48 at PVC... that's basically first week of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Yes ... It was heavily documented on this site, by me and others as it was happening. Forky even posted graphics proving the fact. You are wrong. That was prior to July 12 th. I made a post on July 12 th that the pattern change was real and would start on the 21 st. You went into a long diatribe about the Euro being wrong all summer. Fact is I never mentioned the Euro but once it came on board I was convinced.Kevin has posted the LMAO emoticon to four of my posts this year. Feb Blizzard, anti drought, June Miller B, pattern change. Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 NAM/Euro signal a severe (spinner?) threat on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 GFS has a pretty solid severe signal for Friday - with very strong shear and some (enough) instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 GFS has a pretty solid severe signal for Friday - with very strong shear and some (enough) instability. you think clouds muck up thursday? wonder if friday ends up as the better shot? would think decent leftover LL moisture and OK surface heating friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 67.7°F at 2:30 pm. Exquisite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Over/Under 50 tonight at BDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 LOL. just had his picture taken with Beauty and the Beast....and now headed over to the Tea Cups When Kevin said 20-40 more days of high dews, I think he was talking about Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 you think clouds muck up thursday? wonder if friday ends up as the better shot? would think decent leftover LL moisture and OK surface heating friday afternoon. I think it's probably more embedded convection with fakenadoes near the warm front? Not classic convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 66/34 at the Morrisville-Stowe Airport...Montpelier is down to 63/33. How low can dews go and how cold can we get tonight if these dews in the low 30s are legit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 GFS has a pretty solid severe signal for Friday - with very strong shear and some (enough) instability. A total rainout day? races at Thompson are on the 2nd week in a row of rainouts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 I think it's probably more embedded convection with fakenadoes near the warm front? Not classic convection. best thing to come out of summer 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 43 dp in bos at 2pm aug 5. Orange/Athol area 39 at 4/5 am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 I think it's probably more embedded convection with fakenadoes near the warm front? Not classic convection. i haven't had a chance to look at the high-res stuff yet for the euro, but it looks like there might be another warm front over the area on Friday...at least on the crude SLP progs i'm looking at right now. maybe a couple of opportunities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Take the under on MOS tonight? This is a pretty lame way to do it... but when you have a couple hours of "00" for the wind speed on MOS and clear skies that's normally a good sign you'll decouple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 When Kevin said 20-40 more days of high dews, I think he was talking about Florida... You guys are too funny...I don't think there's another poster that takes the ripping he does but then again, he gives it out. The sad thing is that to him, it's still hot & humid and having not experienced the weather the past couple of days it will be but a dream. He'll say that it can't be - it's summer and it's always hot & humid. Meanwhile, looking at my home station it looks like it's about 70°± with a mid-40s dp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 What official station u think gets coldest tonite, ord/tan/ore ? And how cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 What official station u think gets coldest tonite, ord/tan/ore ? And how cool Chicago? Probably ORE will get the coldest of the ASOS stations for SNE, but AFN could make a run. Usually ORE gets them though on radiational cooling nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 What official station u think gets coldest tonite, ord/tan/ore ? And how cool Of those I'd have to go with ORE but what about CEF or IJD? I think both do well with CEF the better of the two. I think "upper" low 40s are possible at the coldest spots. I'll go with MPV for NNE. Upper 30s? SLK is going to win the northeast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Of those I'd have to go with ORE but what about CEF or IJD? I think both do well with CEF the better of the two. I think "upper" low 40s are possible at the coldest spots. I'll go with MPV for NNE. Upper 30s? SLK is going to win the northeast though. CEF is a darkhorse too...IJD not a chance IMHO. I'd pick a place like OWD or even TAN before them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 CEF is a darkhorse too...IJD not a chance IMHO. I'd pick a place like OWD or even TAN before them. IJD and MMK sometimes absolutely tank at night - I wouldn't be surprised if either was one of the coldest but probably not as low as OWD or TAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 70.3/34.7 right now...lol. Just got some weenie mixing with much lower dews. Springfield, NH RWIS has had dews in the 20s all afternoon. I'll take ORE for a SNE ASOS min and OWD for a backup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Of those I'd have to go with ORE but what about CEF or IJD? I think both do well with CEF the better of the two. I think "upper" low 40s are possible at the coldest spots. I'll go with MPV for NNE. Upper 30s? SLK is going to win the northeast though. Yeah I was thinking that but usually ORE does a bit better than CEF provided there aren't extenuating circumstances like cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 IJD and MMK sometimes absolutely tank at night - I wouldn't be surprised if either was one of the coldest but probably not as low as OWD or TAN. Yeah they def radiate well, but I don't think i've ever seen IJD come in colder than those others on big rad nights. It would have to be a night where there is cloud cover up north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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