ORH_wxman Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 LOL. just had his picture taken with Beauty and the Beast....and now headed over to the Tea Cups He's going on the Peter Pan ride next and then the ride where you pretend to drive a car but there's a rail in the middle to keep the car from going out of its lane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 I hope he has SPF 50 or better for that dome of his. for some reason i picture him being one of those people who dumps the sunscreen on really thick. like instead of his nose like you see in the movies...his head is just covered in white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 just had his picture taken with Beauty and the Beast....and now headed over to the Tea Cups Jayhawk needs to do some photoshop with Beauty and the Beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 He's going on the Peter Pan ride next and then the ride where you pretend to drive a car but there's a rail in the middle to keep the car from going out of its lane. hahaha...the go-cart one. yep, he's in lane 6 racing his daughters right now...going about 3 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 for some reason i picture him being one of those people who dumps the sunscreen on really thick. like instead of his nose like you see in the movies...his head is just covered in white. LOL, he's like one of those people who lather up on sun screen and then it looks like the Exxon Valdez ran aground in the pool from all the oil emanating from him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 i shouldn't mock disney (i'll still mock kevin of course). i'd be there right now if i could. it's my all time favorite place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 He's got the scraggly chest hair going to so you know that's all oily and matted down like a wet dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 I think the WAR rebuilds in the last week of August with a ULL in the MW, that to me would be our time period for TS before the westerlys crank up. Wonder if we read anymore bashing of the Euro and it's Ens? Nailed this pattern way in advance. This isn't the fairest of assessments, imho... The Euro, particularly the operational, was too quick, offering a trough insert 3 weeks before one actually took place. There's a bit of forgetfulness going on that is parlaying/feeding back into people's opinions on the matter (not you per se), but in reality, the Euro was way, way too aggressive, and it lasted for weeks before a trough finally came in to the scale the Euro offered. In which time we were served up an above normal July. Day 7 to 10 on just about every Euro run I saw during that period of time was digging for oil in the E. Having said all that ... there is something interesting about that, for me anyway. It has to do with what I call 'lag-verification.' It's my own invented phrase, but it has to do with models picking up on a signal for something (and the GFS has done this too) and rushing it in. It's like if you remove "time" from the skill evaluation, the model was dead on. Tend to agree with Will going forward. I think summer's turned the corner in conventional thinking. Although, we seem to be in an era of climate exotics ...what with snows in October, once in 500 year heat in the MW, left hooking superstorms into the MA. Word has it, there's a couple of dogs and cats actually living together in Maine! So who knows, but using climate as a guide, and balancing in teleconnector layouts going forward, an above normal day or two, or period sure, but I'm not sure I see "big heat" in the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 He's got the scraggly chest hair going to so you know that's all oily and matted down like a wet dog. he's an early riser too...so there's no doubt he needs to be the first person at the park each morning. you can just picture him throwing PowerBars at his wife and daughters as they all leap out of the minivan and run to turnstile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 He's got the scraggly chest hair going to so you know that's all oily and matted down like a wet dog. With a blue polo on, fanny pack, tan shorts, and knee highs meshed around his ankles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 The damaging drought that turned into record wet three month period is up there too. But hey we all make mistakes, some just more than others when emotions get involved with weather What are Kevin's biggest forecast busts? The 20-40 days of high dews and the damaging drought have crashed and burned this year but he's had many calls just as bad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 i shouldn't mock disney (i'll still mock kevin of course). i'd be there right now if i could. it's my all time favorite place I've never been there... I've always wanted to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 68/41 at ORH at 1pm on 8/5 under full sunshine...that's a nice airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 This isn't the fairest of assessments, imho... The Euro, particularly the operational, was too quick, offering a trough insert 3 weeks before one actually took place. There's a bit of forgetfulness going on that is parlaying/feeding back into people's opinions on the matter (not you per se), but in reality, the Euro was way, way too aggressive, and it lasted for weeks before a trough finally came in to the scale the Euro offered. In which time we were served up an above normal July. Day 7 to 10 on just about every Euro run I saw during that period of time was digging for oil in the E. no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 I've never been there... I've always wanted to go! i had a stretch of going just about every year up until last year. it's a lot harder, and more expensive, to travel with 2 kids. i highly recommend it (disney, that is). i've been this time of year before - and i wouldn't do it again. i understand why he's there now with summer vacation for the family...but the heat is just brutal. the sun angle makes the 92/74 feel much worse than it does here. but, good lightning just about every afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 What are Kevin's biggest forecast busts? The 20-40 days of high dews and the damaging drought have crashed and burned this year but he's had many calls just as bad.... Making fun of us for predicting coastals in June. The "LOL at stratiform rain in June" comment was good. Specifically predicting that mid-June coastal to go well south and east (make a note that he hugged the GFS on this one and ignored the Euro) and he lost horribly to Ginx and the other Tolland poster on total rainfall bets for that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 5, 2013 Author Share Posted August 5, 2013 68/41 at ORH at 1pm on 8/5 under full sunshine...that's a nice airmass. 72/45 in the tropics. Can't wait for the plummet at sunset tonight. Should be in the 50s by 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Making fun of us for predicting coastals in June. The "LOL at stratiform rain in June" comment was good. Specifically predicting that mid-June coastal to go well south and east (make a note that he hugged the GFS on this one and ignored the Euro) and he lost horribly to Ginx and the other Tolland poster on total rainfall bets for that storm. remember that? at like 3PM that afternoon he was "LOL-ing" us saying he might not get any rain out of the whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 68/41 at ORH at 1pm on 8/5 under full sunshine...that's a nice airmass. Dews are down into the 30s up here... BTV is now at a dew of 32F! Can they tickle upper 20s? lol MVL is 66/38 MPV is 63/35 BTV is 69/32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 72/45 in the tropics. Can't wait for the plummet at sunset tonight. Should be in the 50s by 9pm. Great shot at 40s tonight in the rad spots. Actually its pretty much a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 no. Yes ... It was heavily documented on this site, by me and others as it was happening. Forky even posted graphics proving the fact. You are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Well the euro ensembles are usually the way to go anyways. We all know the op run sometimes have a propensity to drive troughs down, but if anyone was able to see the ensembles..they usually held off on any trough diving SE until recently when the pattern finally supported this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Yes ... It was heavily documented on this site, by me and others as it was happening. Forky even posted graphics proving the fact. You are wrong. you're exaggerating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Any operational run at day 10 will be out of whack. How many times is the GFS day 10 prog all fooked up? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Well the euro ensembles are usually the way to go anyways. We all know the op run sometimes have a propensity to drive troughs down, but if anyone was able to see the ensembles..they usually held off on any trough diving SE until recently when the pattern finally supported this. The ensembles missed the magnitude of the WAR retrograding (I think all guidance did) during that heat wave but overall they have done well. They did show the WAR trying to come back in mid-August during a few late-July runs, but they quickly backed off that idea by 8/1 and haven't returned to that thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 you're exaggerating no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Any operational run at day 10 will be out of whack. How many times is the GFS day 10 prog all fooked up? LOL. I've said many times before, I don't even know why OP runs beyond D7 are discussed unless its for purely entertainment reasons. They don't offer anything of substance because they have so little skill once out to D10. The ensembles at least have some decent skill at that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 The ensembles missed the magnitude of the WAR retrograding (I think all guidance did) during that heat wave but overall they have done well. They did show the WAR trying to come back in mid-August during a few late-July runs, but they quickly backed off that idea by 8/1 and haven't returned to that thinking. Yeah exactly, all guidance originally did a rather poor job with the WAR. I think there might be confusion when saying "euro" because the ensembles often don't exhibit some of these biases that Tip is referring too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 I've said many times before, I don't even know why OP runs beyond D7 are discussed unless its for purely entertainment reasons. They don't offer anything of substance because they have so little skill once out to D10. The ensembles at least have some decent skill at that time range. I know...and to think the GFS op coming out at 12z really drives the markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 the euro really wasn't off by 3 weeks. it may have been overzealous in dropping a trough in to the northeast during mid-july...i can't recall specifically that date. i know we had the big heat right there between the 14th and the 20th-ish...so i assume it's possible that sometime around the 10th it may have had a run or two trying to dump a trough into the time period that verified with the heat wave...but after the 20th?? that's like 2-2.5 weeks ago...and here are the daily departures at BOS dating back to 7/21: 0, -2, 1, 3, -11, -7, -1, -3, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2, 0, 1. Looks pretty solid to me. and today will obviously pull a big negative but clearly you can see a big switch happened over 2 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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