DCMetroWinston Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Grit, if we don't break down this pattern soon, there will be no sustained summer left to occur. We are already at the doorstep of Labor Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Who cares about summer! Bring me a loooonnngggg cool and dry fall. I can wait until Dec 24th for my first 10" snowfall. Lol. This pattern is truly amazing and i cant wait to see the post mortems that analyze why the predictions were so far out of whack this summer. From svr wx to hurricane predictions, temps and moisture.....nothing was accurate for the east coast. I dont monitor central and western forecasts but they must have been off as well given the index charts posted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 The 06z GFS Ensemble does build a stout ridge centered over Kansas / Oklahoma by Sun-Mon, but the east coast remains in normal to below normal temperatures with a back door cold front dropping down into the SE as a trough exits off the NE coast. Thereafter, the ensembles work the Plains ridge into the western U.S. and we get right back into general troughing in the SE. It simply looks like it is going to be difficult to break down this summer pattern any time soon. Here's the 00z GFS Ensemble 850mb temperature anomaly map for Sunday, with the blue contours in the SE showing the below normal 850mb temps behind the cold front. Nice break down. Seems like every time the models want to bring in the heat in the long range it really fails. Has been for the most part this whole summer. Euro is looking normal to below normal for the next week or two. No surprise there. The heat remains out West as has been the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Nice break down. Seems like every time the models want to bring in the heat in the long range it really fails. Has been for the most part this whole summer. Euro is looking normal to below normal for the next week or two. No surprise there. The heat remains out West as has been the case. What the global models are showing for next week is similar to a pattern we had after all the massive rains of early July. The Eastern US and Southeast in particular will be on the east and southeast flank of a sprawling ridge...which means the winds will veer from northwest, to north and eventually northeast. This pattern resulted in some hot and humid weather back in middle July. Now that we're in late August, chances are higher and higher that colder and drier air will slide down the east side of that ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Sunday-Tues period looking quite nice for August. More sun, less humidity, low-mid 80's for highs in the lowlands. Call in sick weather. Thereafter, looks like we heat up some, but hard to tell how much staying power the central U.S. ridge will have....looks a bit drier though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 The GFS is saying there could be 40's in the western piedmont next monday. GFS has been jumping a big +PNA sig in recent runs for the long range. Hello Canadian high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 With ten days to go, KATL is now only 2.53" away from tieing the 2005 alltime (back to 1879) record high JJA rainfall of 25.82" and it has done this with no help from tropical cyclones! OTOH, 2005 was helped by a whopping four TC's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 WxSouth I like central NC to central VA for record lows Monday Morning #vawx #ncwx Upper 40's. Yes Upper 40's in August. Many in low 50s to #gawx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 WxSouth I like central NC to central VA for record lows Monday Morning #vawx #ncwx Upper 40's. Yes Upper 40's in August. Many in low 50s to #gawx Currently lots of 60s dew points everywhere (even up towards DC). For us to have a chance we'll have to have some mixing today to pull dryer air down to the surface. RAH from last night still looking at the possibility of records tonight: TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. RECORD LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM 49 AT KGSO...54 AT KRDU AND KFAY. GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED CIRRUS AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH...MIN TEMPERATURES WILL THREATEN A TIE OF THE RECORD AT KRDU. THE AIR MASS MODERATES 2-3 DEGREES ON MONDAY AS THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECT MAXES IN THE 83-85 RANGE AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60. -BLAES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Yeah, we need NC and VA dewpoints to drop significantly to have a chance at record cold tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 100 degrees forecast for Minneapolis , 83 for GSP! The summer to remember continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Well the un-official end of summer is right around the corner (Labor Day). RAH is forecasting very typical summer temps to end the season. I suppose I can live with that; it could be worse... .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL SEE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THELONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH THE UPPER RIDGEPERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND MEAN TROUGHSPOSITIONED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OWING TOTHE DEEP NWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRALUS. OUR BEST CHANCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIKELYACCOMPANY A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE SOUTHWARD THROUGHTHE CAROLINAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. POPS/COVERAGE ASWELL AS STRENGTH/SEVERITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE PRESENCEAND CHARACTER OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGYDIVING SEWD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/ANDMID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.GIVEN THE LOW PREDICTABILITY WITH SUCH MESOSCALE FEATURES...WILLSTAY WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONACROSS THE NORTH...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY ASSURFACE FRONT SAGS TOWARDS THE SAVANNA RIVER VALLEY.OTHERWISE...PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES HOVERING AROUND THE 30YEAR AVERAGE WILL SUPPORT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TOAROUND 90. LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 The great thing is that averages are now in the mid 80s for central NC, soon to be low 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 The great thing is that averages are now in the mid 80s for central NC, soon to be low 80's.We're about to go into the best time of the year (in my opinion). October rules; especially that first day where temps stay in the 60s under full sun (State Fair Time...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 I think we need to keep an eye on the upper low currently sitting over the Florida Keys...the models want to drift it into South Florida and then into the Eastern GOM by late week...at the very least could keep Florida unsettled for Labor Day weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 12z Euro takes our current upper low from the Florida Keys to the Panhandle and into the Southeast US by late this weekend. The big ridge currently in place over the central US begins to break down by late this week, leaving an opening for any feature to come northward. At this time, don't think we're talking anything tropical in nature but after a nice stretch of weather, the humidity and unsettled conditions are showing signs of returning late this week for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Surprised that temps have been near normal this year. Seemed like its been cooler than normal. You have to remember this is for Jan-July. The cool summer was offset by the warm winter. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Good write-up from Raleigh for Fri-Tues period... THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL BEGIN TOWEAKEN AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOWALOFT PERSISTING OVER NC. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONECROSSING THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA ANDEVENTUALLY WASH OUT BY FRIDAY. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THELEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN FLOWWILL BRING PW VALUES BACK UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES. UPPER DISTURBANCESCURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INEVITABLY DIVESOUTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...BUT ITS DIFFICULT TO FIND ANYSIGNIFICANT FEATURES IN MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. EXPECT AMOSTLY DRY DAY FRIDAY...WITH AN INCREASING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCEPOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE ISEXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERNCANADA..LEADING TO A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS THE FLOWALOFT BECOMES MORE CYCLONIC AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THENORTHWEST...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.IN ADDITION...BOTH THE ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONCURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY INTO THE GULF ANDEVENTUALLY BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ABSORBEDBY THE LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US. HOWEVER...THE IMPACTS OFTHIS FEATURE ARE LESS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WITH THICKNESSESHOLDING RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH MONDAY.... HIGH TEMPS OVER THEWEEKEND WILL REBOUND TO AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TOAROUND 90. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLYCOOLER CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ASTHE PATTERN BECOMES DOMINATED BY THE STRONGER TROUGH MENTION ABOVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 GSP longterm overnight: *note the last paragraph .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 245 AM EDT THU...AN ERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INEARNEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THEDEVELOPING TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF INCREASE INMOISTURE SUNDAY AFTN...AS WELL AS IMPROVED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SOLID CHC POPS FOR AFTNCONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS...WITH TEMPS RECOVERING ANADDITIONAL DEGREE OR SO IN THE PIEDMONT.LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN FURTHER ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONTAPPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE FALLING.COVERAGE OF AFTN AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THUS LOOKS ABIT MORE ROBUST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS LATE DAY.THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THE PROFILES DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLYTHREATENING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DIURNALLY UNFAVORED TIME OF FROPA.THE BEST LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL BE IN SE SECTIONS THROUGH MIDDAYTUESDAY BEFORE POST FRONTAL DRYING SETS IN.THE ERN TROUGH WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BE REINFORCED BY A POLAR VORTEXDROPPING SWD THROUGH CANADA ON WED...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRES WILLSETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRIEFLY WED TO PRODUCE A DRIER AND COOLERDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Looks like the advertised heat for this weekend and next week will not really be notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 From Brad P's Facebook page, we have the following interesting image. The extreme western part of NC is in the midst of one of the coolest summers on record, while the extreme eastern part is experiencing one of the warmest summers on record. Pretty weird! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Time to unpin this thread and pin the September thread...fall is here. Sort of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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