What will August bring?

[Minnesota Meso]

I just posted this on the Minnesota Forecaster page.  Much of this could be applicable to the majority of this sub forum with the exception of the far southern areas.

 

"Looking at the ECMWF, GFS and the Gem at the 500mb height, it becomes obvious over the next 10-16 days that the current pattern will continue. The sub-tropical ridge will remain stubbornly in place to our south. While at the same time the northern jet will be responsible for running disturbances just to our north through southern Canada. As each of those low pressure system's pass to our east, the ridge will build into the Northern Plain states of South and North Dakota warming those areas up, but just as it appears that the ridge will try to move to the east, it will once again be beaten down by yet another disturbance passing just to our north. This should act to put us in a zonal flow (winds aloft out of the west) and at times out of the NW. Look for temps to be at our below normal, with very little chance of a period above normal temps.

So what could change this pattern before the end August? In my opinion only one thing and that's a tropical storm. While no models are showing much there is this little storm out in the Atlantic named Dorian. Many forecasters have predicated that Dorian would be dead by now, but as I type this, the Hurricane Hunters are either wheels up or close to it as the NHC has decided to investigate it. IF it should stay alive and get into the Gulf coast the subtropical ridge could be lifted north. Yet on the other hand if it survives and move up the east coast it would enhance our chances of below normal temps.

If it dies and doesn't effect the US or eastern coastal waters, the same pattern we are seeing will continue."

 

What all do you think?

[Geos]

Cooler than normal I'm betting on. I think at some point a tropical system will shoot up through the Gulf and bring the region some tropical moisture, but that could be September for all we know.

 

Edit: Thus pushing the ridge up and over us. Probably have one more real hot spell.

[Minnesota Meso]

Cooler than normal I'm betting on. I think at some point a tropical system will shoot up through the Gulf and bring the region some tropical moisture, but that could be September for all we know.

 

agreed