Weekend Storm Disco/Obs (Dec 18th & 19th) ---> Part 2

[Tullioz]

Both Raleigh and Greensboro are at 30 with "mist." Shouldn't that be "freezing mist?"

Here at my location along the NC/VA border there is very dense fog and a temperature of 29.8. There was a very thin glaze on my car windshield when I went out a few minutes ago. Blacksburg has a SWS concerning the dense fog and possible icing in this area.

[SBUWX23]

Id like the looks of this if I were in central NC

[Weather Czar]

they probably are, esp since this is another close call and hard to pin down. with alabama starting to update things, ffc is probably following suit. i am not sure it [missing the wed. ice] was entirely their fault, it was such a close call. i have ragged on them before as well, but the nws offices (and other media mets) in alabama, ga, tn, nc were all a little off on the ice. the thing is we really didnt get that much, maybe 1/10th an inch. but as cold as the ground and roads were it all froze and created a large multistate ice rink

still at 39 here (dropped like .5 degree in three hours ) i am afraid ne ga may be in the lee side of the mtns dead zone where the cold gets clogged on the west side and the moisture is gone by the time it gets to our areas

Im in the 20's here already, Trying to send it your way.

[Snow haven]

Id like the looks of this if I were in central NC

Im in the 6-8 range but im worried about temps for my area.

[superjames1992]

I'm feeling better about this system. I'd be feeling better if I was in Raleigh, but exams are over and I'm in High Point now. I do feel like we'll see some accumulations here, but I'm not sure how much. I guess we'll see, but I'm hoping for an inch or so (which seems realistic based on modeling). More would be icing on the cake!

[NEGa]

Im in the 20's here already, Trying to send it your way.

lol thanks am texting with a friend who lives near franklin and am getting a back up plan to head up if i need to so i can see some snow

Im in the 6-8 range but im worried about temps for my area.

?? are you talking about 6"-8" range? dont think thats an accumulation map

[WeatherNC]

Id like the looks of this if I were in central NC

Very nice H7 omega plume, you can begin to see the influx off the Atlantic over NE NC, points just to the west of 95 towards the triangle look to be in the bulls-eye, good place to be imo. Don't know if they will verify with a warning, but a WWA with the overnight package and a watch, seem like a safe call monitoring things into the am for the eastern half of the CWA, if a warning is necessary.

[Weather Czar]

lol thanks am texting with a friend who lives near franklin and am getting a back up plan to head up if i need to so i can see some snow

??

I'm just hoping for enough to have a snowball fight with the kids. The rain and warm temps the last two days took our snow away. The tubing place in sky valley should be open now. It's cheap and a nice icy hill.

[SBUWX23]

Im in the 6-8 range but im worried about temps for my area.

This is not accumulation. This is 700 mb vertical motion.

[Snow haven]

?? dont think thats an accumulation map

what is it then? im new to reading these things. thanks

[Brick Tamland]

Very nice H7 omega plume, you can begin to see the influx off the Atlantic over NE NC, points just to the west of 95 towards the triangle look to be in the bulls-eye, good place to be imo.

Sounds like where I am.

[ams30721us]

NE GA there is no excuse for FFC completely blowing Wednesdays situation the Day of. Sorry but Everything including all the reports and obvious things going on west of us all day which were in places who had not been as cold as us plus checking ground temps that morning I could clearly see things would be bad later it was obvious. Reckless on there part since they relate to EMAs who then relate to school districts could have been real bad with students out driving on roadways had that precip started an hour earlier in NW GA...

[Snow haven]

ya'll been outside to look at the ring around the moon? pretty neat ice crystals.

[WeatherNC]

Sounds like where I am.

Stop with the one-liners Brick, add something more substantive to the disco than "where I am" posts, just for once. While I enjoy your 'ism at times, it can get rather old quickly, start forming an opinion of your chances based on fact, and post it accordingly, instead of DA rhetorical comments.

[CandymanColumbusGA]

NE GA there is no excuse for FFC completely blowing Wednesdays situation the Day of. Sorry but Everything including all the reports and obvious things going on west of us all day which were in places who had not been as cold as us plus checking ground temps that morning I could clearly see things would be bad later it was obvious. Reckless on there part since they relate to EMAs who then relate to school districts could have been real bad with students out driving on roadways had that precip started an hour earlier in NW GA...

Here in Columbus we saw sleet that morning. I work mornings, and during the morning show, I didn't think much, if any, of the rain was making it to the ground considering dew points were a good 20 degrees off of the temp. However, when I started seeing actual reports of rain making it, then freezing rain, I started mentioning it in my cut ins and online. If I were in FFC's position, I would have started mentioning this when I did (around 715am)... But again, that's just me! All I know is two months on the job and have seen quite a bit of everything so far. Can't wait to see what the rest of winter and spring hold for us!

[BIG FROSTY]

Just got home, Man is it foggy out there and 30 degrees

[SBUWX23]

Stop with the one-liners Brick, add something more substantive to the disco than "where I am" posts, just for once. While I enjoy your 'ism at times, it can get rather old quickly, start forming an opinion of your chances based on fact, and post it accordingly, instead of DA rhetorical comments.

I AGREE. It makes me not want to post my thoughts here.

[CaryWx]

Here's a link I like to hit around storm time to get the current temps for NC. Of course you can select any state you want.

http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=NC&address=&type=&noho=&rawsflag=3

[NEGa]

NE GA there is no excuse for FFC completely blowing Wednesdays situation the Day of. Sorry but Everything including all the reports and obvious things going on west of us all day which were in places who had not been as cold as us plus checking ground temps that morning I could clearly see things would be bad later it was obvious. Reckless on there part since they relate to EMAs who then relate to school districts could have been real bad with students out driving on roadways had that precip started an hour earlier in NW GA...

i wasnt defending them completely, sorry if it seemed like it. i just know i wasnt convinced that i would see anything here (i was also really busy at work and didnt realize what was happening in atlanta until later in the afternoon, although i do agree with what i saw happening in alabama ffc should have been paying more attention)

remember, it didnt start here until dinner time! i just think that one was a really close call and hard to forecast cos a degree either way would make a difference. it had been so long since i had ice that i forgot just what .10" can do! that amount usually doesnt stick to the pavement in ga (even in the huge dec 05 ice storm, travel was impossible with trees and power lines. there were icy patches on the road, but it wasnt completely glazed over like wed/thur)

Here in Columbus we saw sleet that morning. I work mornings, and during the morning show, I didn't think much, if any, of the rain was making it to the ground considering dew points were a good 20 degrees off of the temp. However, when I started seeing actual reports of rain making it, then freezing rain, I started mentioning it in my cut ins and online. If I were in FFC's position, I would have started mentioning this when I did (around 715am)... But again, that's just me! All I know is two months on the job and have seen quite a bit of everything so far. Can't wait to see what the rest of winter and spring hold for us!

pls see above lol. also, kirk mellish is really good and i read him and his thoughts seem to match what a lot of others were. i didnt know it started in the morning, i thought it didnt start until about 4 in atl (rush hour). i heard an hour or two of reports from atl, then it started here so i switched into mby weenie mode

i retract my statement

[NCSNOW]

apples and oranges:

[BIG FROSTY]

I AGREE. It makes me not want to post my thoughts here.

I understand what your saying, But Please don't let it bother you, We truely appreciate your thoughts

And I'm back here where i'm not even in the game. lol

[CaryWx]

So is the ULL back in Arkansas/NE Texas and the SL in the GOM off the FL panhandle?

[CaryWx]

SBUWX23, So if you had to make a call map w/accumulations what would you suspect at this point?

[WeatherNC]

I AGREE. It makes me not want to post my thoughts here.

And I apologize for that, from the SE crew as a whole, as we value the conversations with you, and passion for the area given the roots. It is evident by your continued additions to our community and very much appreciated going forward as it adds depth to the disco, one thing his posts lack in every way shape and form.

[NEGa]

I AGREE. It makes me not want to post my thoughts here.

oh no! pls be sure and pm lookout first, to have him block brick. we will all sign an e-petition if that is what it takes to keep you here!

as for FFC, i thank goodness i am under gsp!! i am a county away from their sws so thought i would check the forecast now - here it is...and they posted a sws statement for THIS? (from white county)

Saturday

Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain in the morning...then a slight chance of rain or snow in the afternoon. Highs around 40. Northeast winds 5 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

SBUWX23, So if you had to make a call map w/accumulations what would you suspect at this point?

it is rare i make any kind of comment like this, but after reading SBUWX23's comments above (a met) i will go ahead and say it. please dont pester the mets with accumulation questions! if they feel comfortable making a map or giving them, they will. we do not want to chase them away

[strongwxnc]

So is the ULL back in Arkansas/NE Texas and the SL in the GOM off the FL panhandle?

[CandymanColumbusGA]

pls see above lol. also, kirk mellish is really good and i read him and his thoughts seem to match what a lot of others were. i didnt know it started in the morning, i thought it didnt start until about 4 in atl (rush hour). i heard an hour or two of reports from atl, then it started here so i switched into mby weenie mode

i retract my statement

I was talking about my telling the public at 7:15 in the morning, we didn't see sleet here until 11:15 or so and did so for about 45 mins. Luckily for us it was just sleet and not freezing rain. That would have been crazy because I have never driven on ice... since I recently moved here from Florida... haha! This Florida boy doesn't know how to drive in freezing rain, and is learning a lot from everyone here about winter forecasting because I certainly need all the help I can get.

[FoothillsNC]

Maybe the GFS will make a last jog north and west but here's my first call map. Still favor the areas with the best lift and moisture to have the best chance at snow and looking at the temp profile I think that will be the areas just east of CLT to RDU between 3 pm and 7 pm, with more moisture and lift and the cold lingering for a longer time near RDU and then eventually east, northeast of RDU to coastal Va and northeast NC after 7 pm. Further west of 77 and 85, the moisture will be spotty bands, but could drop some wet snow in the n. GA mountains and again in NC mountains mostly from the passing wave thats separate band of moisture there, and never amalgamates with the southern moisture in Alabama and Ga, although I do expect moisture to break out a little more over Alabama and Georgia by morning, but nothing heavy. For the foothills and western Piedmont of NC, mostly a miss, but light rain closer to 77 and 85. If enough moisture gets solid and heavy enough toward late afternoon it could change over or mix, but only very briefly and with not much upper support being so far from the best UVV's. Bad timing there, but not much moisture anyway, just spotty. Areas east of there get into more solid precip, better time of day, and dropping temps aloft and surface to allow a much better chance at mostly snow with some accums up to 1" maybe pockets of 2" near and east of RDU after dark. Good rain event in central and eastern SC which is very needed along with southern half of eastern NC.

[NEGa]

I was talking about my telling the public at 7:15 in the morning, we didn't see sleet here until 11:15 or so and did so for about 45 mins. Luckily for us it was just sleet and not freezing rain. That would have been crazy because I have never driven on ice... since I recently moved here from Florida... haha! This Florida boy doesn't know how to drive in freezing rain, and is learning a lot from everyone here about winter forecasting because I certainly need all the help I can get.

judging the mess all over the roads in n ga wed night and thur morning i dont think you are alone i dont think any georgians can drive on ice either

i listened to the scanner here, it was unbelievable the wrecks and cars off the road. at one point dispatch had all the police cars wait for sand/salt trucks so they could follow them

[HWY316wx]

The bottom has fell out on the temp here... 33.6 IMBY, but looking aroud at obs... 32-34 is the norm. I am shocked at the temp drop.