SnowDeac Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I still think it's a complete crapshoot at this point. I'm not expecting much of anything at all, but still think all of the Piedmont has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 James Spann out of ABC3340 in Birmingham getting a little nervous.... Ok now I'm in weenie mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Right now the nam is on its own. Neither the euro or gfs are putting out the qpf that the nam is. Not saying the nam is wrong but until I see other models showing something similar I don't trust it. I am not trying to argue with anyone here but please try to not follow QPF maps all the time. They rely heavily on microphysical parameterizations and if the scheme in the model does not handle certain ice crystal prcoesses well it could be off. The GFS is also a coarser model. Soundings off the GFS at RDU support some snow so lets see what the 00z GFS does tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'm at 30.9 .... I can still see stars through very spotty high cloud cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Brick.. dont look now but WRAL has no snow for you in their forecast. WRAL is always conservative unless they are 100% sure. They like to start low then increase the amount as the storm happens. They would rather do that than call for a big storm and it bust so people won't say they were cryng wolf. They only called for a trace with the record snow in Jan 2000 to begin with, too. I am not saying this will be a big snow. I just like having the chance of snow. You never really know how it will turn out here once it starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I am not trying to argue with anyone here but please try to not follow QPF maps all the time. They rely heavily on microphysical parameterizations and if the scheme in the model does not handle certain ice crystal prcoesses well it could be off. The GFS is also a coarser model. Soundings off the GFS at RDU support some snow so lets see what the 00z GFS does tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Right now the nam is on its own. Neither the euro or gfs are putting out the qpf that the nam is. Not saying the nam is wrong but until I see other models showing something similar I don't trust it. But so far the precip has been more than forecasted in AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 uhmmmm from Conservative FFC?? SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 845 PM EST FRI DEC 17 2010 GAZ001>009-011>016-181200- DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS- CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE- 845 PM EST FRI DEC 17 2010 ...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA AND THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY... A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS GEORGIA SATURDAY...WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. FURTHER NORTH...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A SUMMERVILLE...TO JASPER...TO CLEVELAND LINE...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OF TOWNS...UNION...FANNIN...GILMER... LUMPKIN...DAWSON...AND WHITE. GROUND AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THESE AREAS SATURDAY. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO GRASSY SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...RESIDENTS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA AND THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THROUGH THESE AREAS...SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT MAY BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 James Spann out of ABC3340 in Birmingham getting a little nervous.... i love reading their blog! nice update, esp after the ice earlier this week. i just wish n ga were in for a surprise (and their rpm model shows us all at rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 When FFC starts tooting "light snow", it's time to start paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 AFD just issued from Birmingham NWS: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 820 PM CST FRI DEC 17 2010 .UPDATE...EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION...NEW MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT ARRIVED JUST YET...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PCPCN DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BEFORE SUNRISE. SHOWERS ARE FORMING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ALONG LEAD IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE COASTAL REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PCPN SPREADING INTO ARKANSAS AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF. MODELS TEND TO UNDER-FORECAST AREAL COVERAGE AND EASTWARD ADVECTION OF PCPN IN THESE FAST MOVING ZONAL FLOW PATTERNS. UPDATED FORECAST TO MENTION SLEET ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. ONCE NEW MODELS ARRIVE...FORECAST MAY NEED TO UPDATED AGAIN TO REFLECT HIGHER CHANCES OF PCPN OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLIRTING NEAR THE 32 DEGREE MARK ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM SULLIGENT...TO WARRIOR...TO HEFLIN LINE...AND THESE AREAS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ICY CONDITIONS ON MAINLY ELEVATED SURFACES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Right now the nam is on its own. Neither the euro or gfs are putting out the qpf that the nam is. Not saying the nam is wrong but until I see other models showing something similar I don't trust it. read james spann's blog [weenie] looks like more moisture showing [/weenie] he must be a true weenie since he is also watching the models on a friday night (yes, i know thats also part of his job!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Good view. Tabs across the top help with detail and things like 850 analysis http://w1.spc.woc.no...or=17&parm=pmsl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Looks like this might be one of those systems where the forecast changes as it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 uhmmmm from Conservative FFC?? SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 845 PM EST FRI DEC 17 2010 GAZ001>009-011>016-181200- DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS- CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE- 845 PM EST FRI DEC 17 2010 ...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA AND THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY... A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS GEORGIA SATURDAY...WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. FURTHER NORTH...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A SUMMERVILLE...TO JASPER...TO CLEVELAND LINE...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OF TOWNS...UNION...FANNIN...GILMER... LUMPKIN...DAWSON...AND WHITE. GROUND AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THESE AREAS SATURDAY. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO GRASSY SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...RESIDENTS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA AND THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THROUGH THESE AREAS...SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT MAY BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I am not trying to argue with anyone here but please try to not follow QPF maps all the time. They rely heavily on microphysical parameterizations and if the scheme in the model does not handle certain ice crystal prcoesses well it could be off. The GFS is also a coarser model. Soundings off the GFS at RDU support some snow so lets see what the 00z GFS does tonight. C'mon, you know everyone on the SE board right now is looking to see if any qpf is making it to there area. That's all any of us care about. The only thing that I'm saying is I've been burnt w/ the nam qpf totals before. Like I said before I'm not saying the nam is wrong, just that I don't trust the nam. Not only w/ qpf totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 spann just updated again, looks like n alabama is in for a second surprise in the same week! * * * Sure looks like the chance of snow and sleet is increasing north of I-20 for after midnight and tomorrow morning. Still, it looks rather light, but it might be enough to create some icy bridges. We will go ahead and amend the forecast to hit this a little harder… if you are traveling tomorrow morning over North Alabama, you will need to get up a little early and check on weather conditions… http://www.alabamawx.com/ C'mon, you know everyone on the SE board right now is looking to see if any qpf is making it to there area any of us may see a little surprise frozen precip. That's all any of us care about. The only thing that I'm saying is I've we've all been burnt very very badly w/ the nam qpf totals before. Like I said before I'm not saying the nam is wrong, just that I don't trust the nam. Not only w/ qpf totals. fixed it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Both Raleigh and Greensboro are at 30 with "mist." Shouldn't that be "freezing mist?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Both Raleigh and Greensboro are at 30 with "mist." Shouldn't that be "freezing mist?" No BR will be reported when visibility is low somewhere around 5 mi but not really mist yet. Once it gets down further it would be reported as fzfg if its below 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Will the Triangle and surrounding areas see snow Saturday night? It's iffy, according to WRAL meteorologist Elizabeth Gardner, who said the latest weather models show the storm missing the area. "It doesn’t mean we won’t see any snow. It just means our confidence is low," she said.On Thursday, WeatherScope predicted that all the precipitation would stay off the North Carolina coast. Then, Friday morning, it showed a little burst of snow over the Triangle. By Friday afternoon, however, WeatherScope said the storm should stay east of the Triangle. "This is one of those really tricky situations. It’s a coastal storm, which can always be difficult to predict," Gardner said. "(Coastal storms) typically develop rapidly, so this storm hasn’t even fully developed yet. That’s one problem. Then, there’s always the question of how far inland does it come?" WRAL has other computer models, which are still showing that the Triangle will receive snow. Gardner said it's tough to predict until the storm develops further. "It’ll be at the last minute that this (storm) develops, and then we’ll have to see where it is in relationship to our coast," she said. In other words, we don't know so we'll just say maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 In other words, we don't know so we'll just say maybe. This is old. I saw this earlier today at noon so do not go by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheapdad00 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 WRAL is always conservative unless they are 100% sure. They like to start low then increase the amount as the storm happens. They would rather do that than call for a big storm and it bust so people won't say they were cryng wolf. They only called for a trace with the record snow in Jan 2000 to begin with, too. I am not saying this will be a big snow. I just like having the chance of snow. You never really know how it will turn out here once it starts. They are gunshy after the Dec 2000 fiasco. Posted similar totals to the Jan 2000 storm on their maps and the next day the sun was shining without a flake having fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 FFC is covering their butt after the last debacle. GA DOT blamed them for the mess the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 37/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 the only think i am worried about is the temperature for my area. i think we will have enough moisture its just the temps. Am i correct? im sitting at 35 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 We are sitting at 43 here between ATL and AHN. Don't see how we have any chance.... BUT Rome is sitting at 35 and clear skies... so if they can chase down some precip... they might have a chance at some flakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 fixed it lol ....oh yea, that's better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 This is old. I saw this earlier today at noon so do not go by this. The story online said it was updated at 6:00. Maybe they need some better internet folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 FFC is covering their butt after the last debacle. GA DOT blamed them for the mess the other day they probably are, esp since this is another close call and hard to pin down. with alabama starting to update things, ffc is probably following suit. i am not sure it [missing the wed. ice] was entirely their fault, it was such a close call. i have ragged on them before as well, but the nws offices (and other media mets) in alabama, ga, tn, nc were all a little off on the ice. the thing is we really didnt get that much, maybe 1/10th an inch. but as cold as the ground and roads were it all froze and created a large multistate ice rink ....oh yea, that's better! We are sitting at 43 here between ATL and AHN. Don't see how we have any chance.... BUT Rome is sitting at 35 and clear skies... so if they can chase down some precip... they might have a chance at some flakes... still at 39 here (dropped like .5 degree in three hours ) i am afraid ne ga may be in the lee side of the mtns dead zone where the cold gets clogged on the west side and the moisture is gone by the time it gets to our areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 In other words, we don't know so we'll just say maybe. Its always maybe until it actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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